CINCINNATI -- The All-Star break is nearly over. Let the Trade Deadline season begin.
In a July 9 story, I wrote that all signs pointed to the Reds becoming sellers ahead of the Aug. 3 Trade Deadline. Heading into the second half, little has changed.
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Besides being considerably out of the National League Central race, Cincinnati is also eight games back from the final NL Wild Card spot. With a 23-41 record since May 1 (after starting the season 20-11), they went 3-6 on the final homestand of the first half, dropping all three series to the Orioles, Phillies and Cubs.
- Record at the break: 43-52 (Fifth in NL Central, 15 1/2 games back)
- Record at the break last year: 50-47 (Fourth in NL Central, 7 1/2 games back)
- Chances of making playoffs: 0.9%
- Remaining Strength of Schedule: .528 (2nd hardest in MLB)
Inside the clubhouse, players want to show the season can still be saved.
“We’re not quite in as good of a spot as we were last year, but we weren’t in a good spot last year either. We’re sticking together," closer Emilio Pagán said. "We still believe in each other. We’re caring for each other and we’re doing our best to pick each other up on the tough days. But that doesn’t mean that we’re not frustrated. Out of respect for our fanbase, I know they’re frustrated. We’re just as frustrated, if not more.
"We didn’t make it easy on ourselves. We’re definitely behind the eight-ball in where we should be at this point in the season, but we’re capable of a big run.”
Last season, the Reds were buyers at the Deadline, adding third baseman Ke'Bryan Hayes, starting pitcher Zack Littell and designated hitter Miguel Andujar before going on to clinch the last NL Wild Card berth on the final day of the season.
If the Reds move players, where would they start? Let’s first look at those who will be free agents at season’s end.
Catcher Tyler Stephenson, 3B/DH Eugenio Suárez, 1B/DH Nathaniel Lowe, LHPs Caleb Ferguson and Brock Burke, RHPs Brady Singer and Pierce Johnson
This is an opportunity for the Reds to clear some salaries and get something in return before seeing them depart for zero compensation. Stephenson can provide catching depth and is adept at ABS challenges; Suárez and Lowe are both power bats; Singer brings starting pitcher dependability that provides innings, while the three relievers -- Burke, Ferguson and Johnson -- are high-leverage tested.
What could prevent a sale? It's simple. Winning. Lots of winning.
But a challenging schedule resumes with a 10-day, nine-game road trip to Colorado, Seattle and St. Louis to open the second half. How the Reds play in those games will likely be what fully tips the scale for how the front office navigates Deadline moves.
Biggest need: Hitters under club control
If the Reds do sell beyond those players they have in walk years, they need to bring back big league players with years of club control remaining rather than just prospects. They could especially use more offense. When they signed JJ Bleday as a free agent last offseason, part of the appeal was that the outfielder is under club control through 2028.
Biggest chip: RHP Hunter Greene
Signed through 2028 with a club option for ‘29, Greene's $8.3 million salary in 2026 jumps to $15.3 million in '27, and then $16.3 million in '28. The option is worth $21 million ($2 million buyout). Especially for big market clubs, that's not a budget killer. Greene has durability issues with each of his five seasons being filled with lengthy stretches on the injured list. But he is one of the most talented pitchers in the league, and is coming off a 12-strikeout performance against the Cubs on July 10.
Key player for second half: OF Héctor Rodríguez
Cincinnati's No. 5 prospect, Rodríguez could be next to make his big league debut at some point in the second half. The lefty slugger, who was acquired from the Mets for Tyler Naquin before the 2022 Trade Deadline, has 23 home runs in 89 games, including one three-homer game and three two-homer games. Rodríguez is not rated well defensively but his bat could be an exciting addition to the Reds’ lineup.
COMPLETE REDS PROSPECT COVERAGE
Determining Factor: As mentioned above, the Reds will open the second half with a challenging road trip. A 10-day, nine-game journey begins in Colorado, who they went 5-1 against last year. But then it moves on to Seattle and St. Louis with both opponents being playoff contenders. Not only are the Reds 6-22 vs. NL Central clubs, they are 1-4 vs. the Cardinals this season. A good showing -- perhaps three series wins -- along with some bad luck for those ahead of them in the standings -- could sway the Reds to not shed key players.