López thriving as starter ... and Braves looking pretty smart, too

April 12th, 2024

This story was excerpted from Mark Bowman's Braves Beat newsletter. To read the full newsletter, click here. And subscribe to get it regularly in your inbox.

ATLANTA -- Taking a chance on Jarred Kelenic’s upside could pay dividends for many years to come. But right now, it looks like the Braves’ top offseason decision was to sign with the plan to utilize him as a starting pitcher.

López thrived in a relief role over the past two years. Nobody would have blinked had the Braves just put him in their bullpen. But where would the team be right now had López not been stretched out as a starter in Spring Training? And where might the team be next season had López not spent at least a portion of this year serving as a starter?

With Spencer Strider likely sidelined for the remainder of this year and possibly through the first half of next, Atlanta could benefit greatly from López’s availability as a starter. The veteran right-hander’s presence currently stabilizes a fractured bullpen.

López hasn’t thrown more than 66 innings in a season since 2019. He likely won’t be asked to handle a starting pitcher’s regular workload over an entire season. But by reacquainting his body to the starting role, he’ll be even better prepared next year, when the Braves could be looking to account for Strider’s absence and the potential departures of free-agent-to-be Max Fried and 40-year-old Charlie Morton.

Early results indicate López could be successful in the rotation. Or at least, more effective than he was while previously serving as a starter.

López posted a 4.64 ERA over the 65 starts he made for the White Sox from 2018-19. His most successful career stretch came when he produced a 3.02 ERA over 129 combined appearances with the White Sox, Angels and Guardians from 2022-23.

Now that López has allowed just one run through his first two starts (12 innings) of this season, he confidently said he is better prepared than he was when he previously served as a starter.

“I think I’m a very different pitcher than I was three years ago,” López said. “A few years ago, I didn’t have the command I have on my breaking pitches. With this command, I feel confident throwing all of my pitches in any count. Those two years I spent in the bullpen were very helpful.”

The sample size is small with just two starts completed thus far. But there are a few trends to follow.

López has used his four-seam fastball 65.3% of the time this year. This is similar to last year’s rate (64.3%) and slightly higher than ’19 (58.5%) and ’18 (60.7%).

Curveball usage might be the most interesting thing to keep an eye on. López has used his curve 15.3% of the time this year. This pitch accounted for just 1% of his pitches last year, 7.9% in ‘22, 8.4 in ‘19 and 5.8% in ‘18.

The curveball has never been a plus-pitch for López in the past, but the early results indicate this is a pitch he should at least continue to lean on a little more frequently. Opponents have whiffed with five of 10 swings against this breaking pitch so far. This small sample size doesn’t tell us much, but it does create reason to watch to see if the curveball becomes a more primary part of López’s arsenal.

Given the rash of pitching injuries across the league, it might be time to credit pitchers for proving that less can still bring more. López’s four-seam fastball averaged 97-98 mph as a reliever the past two years. It has averaged 95 mph during his first two starts.

There’s a possibility the velo will increase as the weather improves. But if it doesn’t, there wouldn’t be anything wrong with him proving he can remain effective around 95 mph.