Contreras demoted amid extended struggles

July 7th, 2023

LOS ANGELES -- has been in need of a reset for quite some time. This appears to be just that.

Contreras was optioned to Triple-A Indianapolis prior to the Pirates’ 5-2 loss to the Dodgers on Thursday, a move likely designed to allow the 23-year-old to rediscover the form he exhibited earlier this season and most of last year.

With Contreras heading to Indianapolis, third baseman Ke’Bryan Hayes was activated off the injured list after dealing with lower back inflammation over the past week and a half.

Contreras said on Wednesday that he’s been trying to “find myself” from a mechanics standpoint on the mound. Manager Derek Shelton said the team has yet to determine whether Contreras will start or relieve in Indianapolis. 

“I have to continue to feel confidence with my mechanics and trust my pitches and throw them in the strike zone to get good results,” Contreras said through team interpreter Stephen Morales.

Contreras pitched well enough to begin the season. In April, he posted a 3.58 ERA and a 2.96 FIP across 27 2/3 innings in five outings and finished the month with three consecutive quality starts.

Since May, Contreras's -0.6 fWAR is the worst among every pitcher in the Majors (min. 40 innings). Across his last 40 2/3 innings, Contreras has an 8.63 ERA and a 6.76 FIP. During that stretch, opponents have a slash line of .303/.378/.564.

Contreras was demoted to the bullpen in late May, then rejoined the rotation after one relief appearance due to Vince Velasquez's season-ending injury. He returned to the bullpen after two starts in which he allowed 12 earned runs across 4 1/3 innings.

In Contreras’ last seven relief appearances, the right-hander allowed 13 earned runs in 12 innings (9.75 ERA) with 12 strikeouts to seven walks and four home runs (7.37 FIP). On Wednesday, Contreras allowed back-to-back home runs -- a three-run homer to J.D. Martinez and a solo shot to David Peralta -- that proved to be the difference in the Pirates’ 6-4 loss to the Dodgers.

Contreras’ struggles have been due, in part, to a decrease in fastball velocity, a trend that dates back to the middle of last season.

In June 2022, Contreras’ first full month in the Majors, his average four-seam fastball was 95.9 mph. By September, it dropped to 94.5 mph. This season, Contreras' four-seam fastball has averaged 94.3 mph, and on Wednesday, it averaged 93 mph.

Contreras doesn’t generate much horizontal movement with his four-seam fastball, getting two inches fewer than four-seamers thrown at similar velocities and release points. The lack of movement working in conjunction with the decreased velocity has led to opponents hitting .381 with a .598 slugging percentage against the pitch. With a run value of 15, Contreras’s four-seam fastball has been the second-least valuable pitch in baseball.

“Right now, I’m trying to focus on controlling my fastball instead of throwing too hard,” Contreras said. “My main focus is to control my fastball in the strike zone.”

Added Shelton, “We have to make sure we're trying to figure out [how] to get back to not only the velo, but the execution.”