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Rockies Odds: +150

Braves Odds: -170

Over/Under: 8.5

Time: 12:20 p.m. ET

TV: MLB Network

Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.

A lot of people thought the Braves season could be over when Ronald Acuña Jr. went down for the season with a torn ACL. Instead, Atlanta has managed to go 32-24 since Acuña went down and is 24-14 since the start of August.

The Braves have a four-game lead in the NL East standings and look poised to win the division for the fourth straight season.

Colorado has been mathematically eliminated from the playoffs but has already eclipsed its preseason win total of 63.5 and sits at 68-78 thanks to a dominant record at home.

The Rockies have won the first two games of this series: 5-4 on Tuesday and 3-2 in extra innings on Wednesday. Colorado will go for its first road-series sweep of the season in the first game of the day.

No Place Like Home for the Rockies

The Rockies will send ace and 2021 All-Star Germán Márquez (RHP) to the mound. Márquez has gone 12-10 this season with a 3.93 ERA. His strength is as a ground-ball pitcher, ranking sixth in the league with a 51.2% ground-ball rate.

As good as he has been this season, most of Márquez's success has come at home. He is 8-2 with a 3.16 ERA at Coors Field but has gone just 4-8 with a 4.93 ERA on the road this season. Since earning his first All-Star appearance, he has hit a bit of a wall, posting a 5.10 ERA since the Midsummer Classic.

It has been a tale of two cities for the Rockies, especially for their offense. They lead the league with 5.75 runs per game at home this season, but rank 29th averaging just 3.42 on the road.

Colorado has the best batting average in the league at home and is tied with the best wOBA. On the road, the Rockies rank last in batting average, wOBA and wRC+.

Anderson Has Had Sophomore Slump With Braves

The 23-year-old Ian Anderson (RHP) burst onto the scene at the end of last season after making his MLB debut on August 26. He made six regular-season starts, posting a 1.95 ERA. In the playoffs, he earned his first postseason win and became the youngest pitcher in postseason history to allow fewer than three hits while striking out nine batters, securing the first-round series win for the Braves. Anderson made four postseason starts, shutting out the Reds, Marlins and Dodgers to finishing with a 0.96 ERA.

The 2016 third overall pick had big expectations coming into 2021, but through 21 starts this season he is 7-5 with a 3.61 ERA. He ranks in the bottom 40% of the league with a 4.38 xERA and a .318 xwOBA. His upper 90s fastball has still been terrific, but his curveball has struggled this year.

Despite losing their best offensive weapon in all-world superstar Ronald Acuña, the Braves offense still ranks ninth in wOBA and 10th in wRC+ this season.

Atlanta has a pair of guys that will likely finish in the top 10 of MVP voting in Freddie Freeman and Austin Riley. Over the last month they are each batting over .315 and have combined for 59 home runs this season.

Rockies-Braves Pick

These two pitchers faced off on September 4, with each pitcher getting tagged for four runs as Colorado came away with a 7-6 win. But that game was at Coors Field.

Anderson has been inconsistent in his sophomore campaign but clearly has dominant stuff and has showed it throughout the year, allowing one run or fewer in nine starts. His most recent start was a season-best nine strikeout outing, where he showed the elite strikeout upside he generated last season.

The Rockies offense has been a shell of itself on the road, and Anderson should be able to have more success against it in Atlanta.

Atlanta has the clear advantage here and should come away with the win Thursday, but this line is probably too big to play in a normal spot. But since this is the first game of the slate and us degenerates need to bet on some day baseball, let’s bookend the day on Thursday.

Play Atlanta -175 in a two-team moneyline parlay with Houston -235 for a +126 payout at DraftKings. Start and end your day with a win and get plus money for it on a day/night parlay.

Pick: Play in two-team moneyline parlay with Houston for +126 (Play to +110)