Experts break down every postseason race

September 1st, 2021

In some ways, Sept. 1 is just another day on the baseball calendar. But that particular date is also symbolic -- it’s the start of the final full month of the regular season, when contending teams may add a little intensity to their daily routines.

Though some division races are essentially settled, there are plenty that are not, and the Wild Card races should be compelling down to the very end. MLB.com writers gathered together to examine what to watch.

Alyson Footer, editor/monitor: Let's start with the AL East. The Rays are eight games up on the Yankees. The two teams meet in the final series of the regular season, at Yankee Stadium. Is it a given the Rays will have the division wrapped up by then? Or will this be a fight to the finish?

Mark Feinsand, executive reporter: I don’t think anything is a given when it comes to these two teams, especially the Yankees. They were dead in the water just five or six weeks ago, and now they’re as dangerous as any team out there. All a baseball fan (except for Rays fans, of course) can ask for is that the two teams are separated by one or two games going into that final series in the Bronx. That would be epic.

And of course, they could very well wind up playing each other in the ALDS either way.

Anthony Castrovince, reporter: Well, let's hope it's a fight to the finish, because those are in short supply in the division races overall. This is a deep-seated rivalry, so it would be fun to see it come down to the final weekend. I think it's a legit possibility. The Rays' rotation is almost unrecognizable at this point, but they keep piecing things together, as is their nature. I do wonder, though, if Corey Kluber's return to the Yankees' rotation could be an X-factor in that race.

Footer: We had a roundtable just before the All-Star break about the AL East race and everyone picked the surging Red Sox to win the division. They seemed unstoppable at that time. It just shows how quickly things can change. The Yankees' story has been pretty amazing so far -- they sprung to life the minute the Trade Deadline passed -- but I just feel like the Rays are not going anywhere. New York barely gained ground on Tampa Bay during its 13-game winning streak, because the Rays were almost as good.

And I keep going back to this: When we think of the Rays, we think of pitching. But they have the third-best run differential in baseball, too. Just a well-balanced, complete team.

Feinsand: The Rays are good. People don’t like to accept it because they don’t have a ton of household names, but that team can pitch, that team can hit and that team can field. They’re just well-rounded and solid all over the diamond.

I’ll be interested to see what the two teams do if they’re tied on that final day. Do you use your best starter to try to win the division? Because if you lose, you’ll need that guy for the AL Wild Card game. Such strategy!

Castrovince: I think you'd struggle to find 10 baseball fans outside the Tampa Bay area (or maybe even in the Tampa Bay area) who can name the Rays' rotation.

Footer: Are we all secretly (or openly) rooting for a Yankees-Red Sox do-or-die Wild Card Game?

Feinsand: Of course! If it’s at Yankee Stadium, Bucky Dent has to throw out the first pitch, doesn’t he?

Castrovince: Yes, definitely.

Feinsand: And Aaron Boone would have to catch it.

Castrovince: I can't help but feel like something throws that off track, though. Every time we think we have a Wild Card matchup nailed down well in advance, baseball happens.

Footer: Like the Dodgers winning the top Wild Card spot by 12 games and losing to the Reds at home?

Castrovince: Maybe it's the Yankees catching the Rays (they do outscore the Rays, 6-0, in the important metric of games remaining vs. the Orioles)? Maybe the A's catch the Red Sox? Or maybe the Mariners or Blue Jays pull off a miracle?

Feinsand: If the two Wild Cards come out of the AL East -- no matter who they are -- then the winner of the WC game could play the team that wins the division in the ALDS. It’s like survival of the fittest, AL East style.

Footer: Switching gears -- how frustrating has it been for the A's? The Astros cratered a little bit, started losing to a bunch of really bad teams, and all Oakland did was match them loss for loss.

Feinsand: It was like the reverse of the Yankees-Rays situation. It was just bizarre. Oakland did find a way to split the series with the Yankees last weekend after dropping the first two, which had to give them a little hope for the final month.

Castrovince: They lost Chris Bassitt at the absolute worst time. That was as big a gut-punch as any pitching injury in MLB this season (and there have been plenty).

Feinsand: I would disagree with that, Castro. The Mets losing deGrom essentially sank their season.

Castrovince: Let's call it a tie. Although I think the Mets were a little suspect even when deGrom was healthy.

Feinsand: A little suspect?

Castrovince: I think that's the theme of the NL East this season.

Feinsand: The deGrom injury did more than weaken the Mets; it gave the Braves and Phillies an opening to seize the division.

The Phillies were the team that took over first place from the Mets. Then the Braves took it from the Phillies. I covered the three-game sweep of the Mets in Philly, and at least for that weekend, the Phillies looked like a team playing with urgency. Not so much anymore.

Footer: I normally would say none of what the Braves are doing is surprising, but doing it without Ronald Acuña Jr. is pretty remarkable. I thought they were done without him.

Feinsand: You and me both. I was trying to figure out which contender would be trading for Charlie Morton.

Castrovince: Braves president of baseball operations and general manager Alex Anthopoulos should probably be the executive of the year. It seemed they had decent reason to punt ahead of the Trade Deadline. Instead, he added like 50 outfielders, and now, they're running away with the division.

Footer: Pivoting west now. The Giants are in first place in the NL West, but they have to constantly be looking over their shoulder at the Dodgers, who are just a half-game back. Do we feel like the Dodgers are going to win the division?

Castrovince: I do.

Feinsand: No! People have underestimated the Giants all year, wondering when the collapse would happen. It’s September! They’re not collapsing.

Castrovince: Which team is more likely to win the World Series? Answer honestly.

Feinsand: The Dodgers.

Castrovince: Yes.

Feinsand: But that doesn’t mean they will win the NL West.

Castrovince: No, it doesn't ... but they're going to do that, too.

Feinsand: You’re lucky you’re in Cleveland, or you’d be getting the stink-eye from me right now.

Castrovince: And I'm not saying the Giants totally fall apart or anything like that. I just think the Dodgers outlast them by season's end.

Footer: When the Dodgers lose the one-game playoff, Castro, we'll have another roundtable on just that.

Feinsand: The Dodgers are certainly better positioned for a short series. But the Giants have been -- and still are -- positioned just as well for the 162-game schedule. There’s no reason to believe that will change over the final four weeks. This week’s San Francisco-Los Angeles series will go a long way toward deciding this one. To me, the Dodgers need to sweep it.

Castrovince: The Giants have done an incredible job both building depth and managing workloads. It's helped them avoid the downturn that so many people thought was unavoidable when they started hot.

But the Dodgers are still the deeper team when all is said and done. And I would want no part of Max Scherzer/Walker Buehler at the start of a short series. Maybe you're right and the Dodgers run out of time in the division race, but I just have a feeling water finds its level in that race.

Feinsand: Like I said, once the postseason begins, the Dodgers have to be the favorite ... behind the Brewers. (Hot take alert!)

If you want no part of Scherzer/Buehler, how do you feel about Corbin Burnes/Brandon Woodruff? And Milwaukee’s bullpen is nasty. Nobody ever talks about the Brewers, but they’re set up to make a long October run.

Castrovince: I am very much looking forward to Scherzer vs. Burnes and Buehler vs. Woodruff (or vice versa) in the NLCS.

Feinsand: Hey Braves fans, you can direct your replies to @castrovince on Twitter.

Castrovince: I picked the Braves to win the World Series at the start of the season and that seemed to do them no favors for the first few months.

Footer: Let's examine the Wild Card races. In the NL, the Reds and Padres are bunched up in the pursuit of the final Wild Card spot, with the Cardinals and Phillies within striking distance. It seems like the only team having fun these days of those four are the Reds. Does that matter? Padres have been in a freefall, but are they done?

Feinsand: The Reds certainly feel like the team to beat in this race. The Padres have been a mess in recent weeks, and the pitching injuries have been brutal. Cincy just has that feel-good vibe going.

Castrovince: The Padres aren't done, but they've got the hardest remaining schedule in MLB, so that does them no favors.

The Dodgers' series last week was confirmation that the Padres just aren't the same team with the same intensity that we saw at the start of the year.

Footer: Once you approach a game trying not to lose instead of expecting to win, things go south quickly. That's how it seems like things are going for the Padres.

Feinsand: I’m not buying the Cardinals or the Phillies. Not yet, anyway.

In many of my Trade Deadline preview stories, I mentioned J.A. Happ as a buy-low veteran who could help a contender. I was ridiculed by many folks (mostly Yankees fans) for even suggesting such a thing. When the Cardinals dealt for him, the move was met by plenty of mockery. Well, who’s laughing now? Happ went 3-0 with a 2.22 ERA in his first five starts for St. Louis and he is one of the reasons the Cards are in this Wild Card race at all.

Castrovince: So you knew this would Happ-en?

Feinsand: #CastroDadJokes

That said, I’m still picking the Reds to grab the second NL Wild Card spot.

Castrovince: It would be kind of hilarious if the Cards steal that Wild Card after all the fan angst over Happ and Jon Lester being their Deadline adds.

Feinsand: I’m not sure I’m ready to go with Alyson on the “Reds will beat the Dodgers in the NL Wild Card game” train, however.

Castrovince: I'm picking the Reds, as well, but losing Tejay Antone (again) was a big blow to a bullpen that needed him back.

Footer: Let's pivot back to the AL. Oakland and Seattle aren't getting a lot of positive pub, because they've been hanging around the Wild Card race more because everyone else is losing just enough to keep them in it.

Castrovince: Sometimes that's all it takes!

Footer: I still have to give the edge to the Red Sox, but I’m not sure why. Maybe it's because I just watched the Astros score 27 runs in two games against the Mariners. That skewed my opinions just a little bit.

Castrovince: The Red Sox have some roster issues with COVID running through their clubhouse, and their bullpen doesn't inspire much confidence at the moment.

Feinsand: The Mariners' season has been a success no matter what happens from here on out. The fact that they have any meaningful games in September is a huge 'W' for Jerry Dipoto.

Seattle has positioned itself along with Toronto as the up-and-coming teams to watch in the AL.

Dipoto needs to add some pitching. Unfortunately for him, there isn’t much out there in free agency this offseason. I do still like Justin Dunn for the long term, though he’s been hurt all year.

Castrovince: I still weirdly think the Blue Jays can steal that second AL Wild Card spot.

Feinsand: The biggest problem for the Blue Jays is that they have 16 games left against the Rays, Yankees, Red Sox and Athletics. On the flip side, they do play the Orioles seven times from Sept. 10 onward. And six against the Twins, though Minnesota has oddly been a tougher team than it was for the first couple months.

Footer: Let's end this with bold predictions, Wild Card edition. The second NL Wild Card goes to ...

Feinsand: Cincinnati. I thought San Diego all year, but the Reds just have that vibe going. I think Joey Votto gets back to October -- for one game, anyway.

Castrovince: Yeah, I guess Reds isn't a bold prediction anymore like it was a month ago, but I think they'll nail it down. Maybe they'll score a run in October this year.

Footer: And the two AL Wild Card teams will be ...

Feinsand: Yankees and Red Sox. Get your popcorn ready! Bucky should start loosening up that arm.

Castrovince: Everybody is expecting Yankees-Red Sox, which can only mean it will be Rays and A's.

Feinsand: You’re no fun.

What happened to your Jays pick?

Castrovince: None of what I said here is an official pick. You can read my official pick in my bold September predictions piece!