ATLANTA -- Sitting on the brink of elimination, the Braves have decided their best bet to extend this season rests on the broad, young shoulders of Sean Newcomb, who will attempt to extend his success against the Dodgers tonight in Game 3 of the National League Division Series.
Newcomb came within a strike of no-hitting the Dodgers on July 29. Nine days later, he helped the Braves win a matchup against Nationals ace Max Scherzer. But as he produced a 6.45 ERA over the eight starts that followed he weakened his candidacy for a postseason start.
• NLDS presented by Doosan, Game 3: Tonight, 8:07 p.m. ET/5:07 PT on FS1
:: NLDS schedule and results ::
Kevin Gausman was initially slated to be Atlanta's Game 3 starter. Gausman posted a 2.87 ERA in the 10 starts made after being acquired from the Orioles. But some of his peripherals create reason to understand why the Braves felt it would be better to go with their talented young left-hander in this win-or-go-home game.
Here are some reasons why Newcomb might indeed be the Braves' best option:
Law of averages
When Gausman posted a 1.88 ERA while limiting opponents to a .190 batting average through his first six starts with the Braves, Statcast™ projected his expected batting average allowed to be .254. The 64-point difference was third highest among MLB pitchers (min. 300 pitches) whose XBA exceeded their BAA within this span.
In other words, it wasn't necessarily surprising to see Gausman produce a 4.98 ERA while allowing opponents to construct a .834 OPS over the four starts that followed. But it should be noted that within this span, his XBA (.272) was actually lower than his BAA (.289).
Inconsistent command and a high walk rate have plagued Newcomb throughout his career. But he may have been plagued by some misfortune over his final eight starts. His XBA (.247) was significantly lower than his BAA (.285) and his expected slugging percentage allowed (.377) was easily trumped by his actual slugging percentage allowed (.449).
Having finished the regular season with a good start, Newcomb will now look to prove that ...
Confidence breeds success
Accounting for his near no-hitter and the two scoreless innings of relief in Game 1, Newcomb has retired 32 of the last 35 Dodgers he has faced. The lefty has relied heavily on his fastball, using it 76 percent of the time (102 of 134) during his July 29 start against Los Angeles and 72 percent of the time (18 of 25) as he made his postseason debut on Thursday.

The Dodgers produced MLB's sixth-lowest batting average (.248) against four-seam fastballs thrown by left-handers. But the additions of Manny Machado and David Freese combined with Justin Turner's return from the DL helped them hit .274 against these pitches from Aug. 1 through the end of the regular season.
The Dodgers significantly improved all of their offensive numbers over the final two months against left-handers. But by starting a lefty, the Braves …
Remove a couple of nemeses
With a southpaw on the mound, the Dodgers will not start Player Page for Max Muncy, who has four homers in 23 at-bats against the Braves this season. Nor will Newcomb have to deal with Joc Pederson, who hit a leadoff homer in Game 1. Reverse splits will also eliminate the presence of Yasiel Puig, who has a .943 OPS in 24 plate appearances against Atlanta this year.
When Newcomb allowed five earned runs in five innings at Dodger Stadium on June 10, he yielded solo homers to Muncy and John Forsythe, who hit his with one of the few first-pitch swings he took this year. That start came on regular rest for the Braves' hurler, who has recently been at his best with …
More than one extra day of rest
While Newcomb has said he feels fine, he has seemingly fatigued mentally and physically near the end of his first full Major League season. The 25-year-old allowed just two runs over the 17 innings he totaled in the three starts he made with more than one extra day of rest after the All-Star break.
Newcomb's 25-pitch relief appearance on Thursday could be viewed as a between-starts bullpen session. This will be his first start since recording eight strikeouts over five scoreless innings against the Mets on Sept. 26.