Here's why Gray should win 1st Cy Young Award

November 12th, 2023

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On Wednesday evening at 5 p.m. CT (live on MLB Network), (now a free agent) will learn if he has won the first Cy Young Award of his career, having been named an American League finalist alongside Gerrit Cole of the Yankees and Kevin Gausman of the Blue Jays.

Gray likely faces an uphill battle considering the outstanding season Cole had in the Bronx -- but here’s our case for him:

It’s difficult to become an elite Major Leaguer; it’s even tougher for a player to remain elite as he ages and the league evolves and adapts around him.

But here’s Gray, having crossed the 10-year mark of his career, still at the peak of his craft. The three seasons in which he’s received Cy Young votes have been 2015, ‘19 and, now, ‘23 -- and this version might have been the best of them all.

Now 34 years old, Gray’s arsenal and usage have evolved into a crafty, controlled mix that didn’t make him a Statcast darling, but delivered results -- the most important currency. Gray’s 2.79 ERA was the second-lowest in the AL behind Cole (2.63), and he ranked second in WAR by both Baseball-Reference and FanGraphs, behind Cole and Gausman, respectively.

Though Gray had some walk issues, his success was predicated around his ability to avoid getting hit -- he finished fifth in the AL with a .225 opponents’ average -- and escape the long ball. His eight home runs allowed (in this homer-hitting climate) were the fewest, by far, among qualified big leaguers, and they were the fewest ever allowed by a qualified Twins pitcher in a full season.

Gray was also at his best under pressure. His .519 OPS allowed with runners in scoring position was best in the AL, and he carried a 2.03 ERA from August through the end of the regular season -- when the Twins needed him most as they pushed for an AL Central title.