Top starters Yanks should target at Deadline

July 26th, 2019

The calendar still says July, but it would be tough to blame Brian Cashman and the Yankees if they had an eye on October.

According to FanGraphs, New York entered Thursday with a 96.1% chance of winning the American League East and a 99.8% chance of earning a postseason berth. Their roster is seemingly solid from all angles, but a rival AL East executive believes there’s one area the Yankees will look to address prior to Wednesday's Trade Deadline.

“Starting pitching,” the executive said. “That’s really it.”

The Yankees’ rotation currently consists of Masahiro Tanaka, James Paxton, J.A. Happ, Domingo German and CC Sabathia. Tanaka entered Thursday leading the group with a 4.00 ERA, but that swelled to 4.79 after he allowed 12 runs over 3 1/3 innings that night at Fenway Park. Happ’s 5.23 ERA following Wednesday’s clunker, meanwhile, is the worst of the five.

German has been a revelation at times this season, his 12-2 record and 4.03 ERA exceeding expectations. But the soon-to-be 27-year-old (his birthday is Aug. 4) has already thrown 91 2/3 innings, only 2 1/3 frames shy of his 2018 total in the Majors and Minors combined. He’s never thrown 125 innings in any season, so he figures to run into an innings-limit situation at some point later this season.

Happ and Paxton have both been inconsistent, and while Sabathia has been mostly solid in his farewell season, the 39-year-old is no more than a five- or six-inning starter at this point.

If Luis Severino can return next month and regain the form that landed him on the AL All-Star team in 2017 and ’18, some of this conversation is moot, but Severino hasn’t thrown a pitch this season, spending the entire year on the injured list with shoulder and lat injuries. The Yankees won’t know what they’ll get from Severino until the Trade Deadline is far behind them, so Cashman is trying to add a starter for the stretch run -- and the postseason -- during the coming week.

“The target would be to continue to reinforce the rotation, because obviously that's where the majority of your innings are going to have to come from,” Cashman said recently. “We've got a long way to go and those innings are vitally important, so we're going to target starting pitching. And then if not, we'll continue to reinforce the bullpen.”

The rival exec echoed that sentiment, noting that the Yankees have been tied to Toronto’s Marcus Stroman (a starter) and Ken Giles (a reliever) -- both of whom are under team control for 2020 -- in several reports. Will Cashman give up the prospects necessary to land a starter of Stroman’s magnitude?

“They don’t give up top prospects unless it’s for an impact guy, so look at their middling prospects and that’s who you’ll see get moved,” the exec said. “Cashman seems to value his top prospects pretty highly.”

Should a pitcher such as Noah Syndergaard or Trevor Bauer become available, it’s easy to envision Cashman pushing those big chips into the middle of the table. But the more likely scenario is a mid-rotation starter landing in New York, providing depth and options over the final two-plus months and into October.

Here are eight names the Yankees will be monitoring this week:

1) Trevor Bauer, RHP, Indians

Like Madison Bumgarner, the biggest question surrounding Bauer is whether the Indians will make him available. Cleveland entered Thursday holding a two-game lead for the first AL Wild Card spot and is only two games behind the first-place Twins in the AL Central. Would they really move their ace? Bauer is projected to earn about $20 million next season, his final year of arbitration-eligibility, a number that seems to worry the Tribe. He would be the type of frontline starter the Yankees desperately want, and they have the pieces to make such a move happen, namely outfielder Clint Frazier, who the Indians dealt to New York in the Andrew Miller deal three summers ago. New York’s interest isn’t in question; Bauer’s availability is.

2) Marcus Stroman, RHP, Blue Jays

Stroman has been the pitcher most often connected to the Yankees, and although intra-division trades can often be tricky, the Blue Jays dealt Happ to New York a year ago. Stroman, who is owed about $2.5 million for the remainder of this season, is having the best year of his career, posting a 2.96 ERA in 21 starts. The right-hander, who hails from Long Island, has made no secret of his desire to pitch in the Bronx.

The Yankees could kill two birds with one stone if they were to deal for a package of Stroman and Giles, who would bolster an already excellent bullpen. Stroman’s history in the AL East makes him an attractive option, as does his club control through 2020.

3) Mike Minor, LHP, Rangers

The Rangers’ recent swoon has turned Texas into likely sellers, with Minor atop the list of candidates. The Yankees have interest in Minor, but the lefty has New York on his limited no-trade list, making it less plausible for the Yankees to acquire him. An All-Star this season, Minor has a 3.00 ERA in 21 starts, striking out about a batter per inning. His contract is a plus for potential acquiring teams, as he’s owed about $3.2 million for the rest of 2019 and is signed for $9.8 million next season.

4) Robbie Ray, LHP, D-backs

Ray is having a solid season, posting a 3.95 ERA in 22 starts with 11.9 strikeouts per nine innings. Arizona is only 3 1/2 games out of an NL Wild Card spot, but it appears GM Mike Hazen is prepared to deal some pieces including Ray. Lefties tend to play well in Yankee Stadium, making Ray an attractive choice for the Yankees. He’s owed about $2 million for the rest of the season and is arbitration-eligible once more for 2020.

5) Matthew Boyd, LHP, Tigers

Boyd’s numbers are hardly eye-popping, but the 28-year-old is striking out 12 batters per nine innings and owns an AL-best 6.46 strikeout-to-walk ratio. He’s also under club control for three more seasons, which explains the wide-ranging interest in him from teams around the Majors. The Tigers had Michael Fulmer in a similar situation a year ago, but they opted not to deal him and he wound up needing Tommy John surgery. There’s no urgency to trade Boyd this week, but a strong offer could pry the left-hander out of Detroit. The fact that he is under team control through the 2022 season makes him especially valuable.

6) Noah Syndergaard, RHP, Mets

This is the most intriguing name on the list. Syndergaard is the type of arm the Yankees covet, and the fact that he’s owed $2 million for the rest of 2019 and is under club control for two more seasons makes him the ideal target for the Bombers.

The catch, of course, is whether the Mets will trade the right-hander, and more importantly, whether they would deal him across town. Syndergaard is one of the few pitchers for whom the Yankees would likely consider trading top prospects right-hander Deivi Garcia or outfielder Estevan Florial, though the Mets would probably request more from the Yankees than any other team given that they share a city. The two clubs haven’t made a trade of any significance since 2004.

7) Zack Wheeler, RHP, Mets

If the Yankees and Mets are to make a deal, Wheeler -- a free agent at the end of the season -- seems like the more logical candidate. His current stint on the injured list came at a bad time for the Mets in terms of his trade value, but Wheeler will return Friday night, giving the Yankees and all other interested teams a chance to see him pitch prior to the Deadline. Wheeler is owed about $2 million for the remainder of the season before becoming a free agent this offseason.

8) Madison Bumgarner, LHP, Giants

MadBum has been at the top of every list of trade candidates all season, but San Francisco’s red-hot run during the past few weeks has seemingly taken the left-hander out of most trade talks, and a source said Thursday that Bumgarner isn’t going anywhere and the Giants could even be buyers next week.

But never say never when it comes to the Deadline, and that narrative could change if the Giants get swept against San Diego this weekend. The Yankees weren’t overly enthusiastic about Bumgarner earlier this year, but his recent performance -- he has a 2.00 ERA over his past six starts -- would make him a welcome addition in the Bronx if he turns out to be available. And since he’s a free agent this winter, the cost wouldn’t be huge.