9 stats that will loom large this October

49 minutes ago

Every playoff team has its strengths, its weaknesses, its signature skills. We want to find some of the things that will matter most this October. 

So we're diving into the Statcast data for the teams that are sitting in clear playoff position and picking out some of the most interesting nuggets. 

Here are nine stats that could loom large this postseason.

1) The Braves have a ton of bat speed 

Bat speed matters, and the Braves have a ton of it across their roster. That will surely come in handy in the postseason, when they're trying to do damage against pitches that are faster and nastier than ones they saw all year. 

Atlanta is tied with the Padres and Cardinals for the highest overall bat speed of any National League team this season. And they have the highest "fast swing rate," which is how often they post bat speeds of 75 mph or faster. Over a third of the Braves' swings are fast swings -- and fast swings can simply hit the baseball harder and send it farther.

Basically every key Atlanta hitter has strong bat speed:

  • Ronald Acuña Jr.: 75.8 mph 
  • Austin Riley: 75.8 mph 
  • Drake Baldwin: 75.4 mph 
  • Michael Harris II: 74.9 mph
  • Matt Olson: 74.8 mph

All five of those hitters have fast swing rates over 50%.

2) The Rays have two stars who are polar opposites 

Two of the most important players for the Rays in the playoffs will be Junior Caminero and Chandler Simpson. And they couldn't be more different as hitters. 

Caminero is one of the best power hitters in the league:

  • He's one of five hitters with 60-plus barrels this season -- those are balls hit with the ideal exit velocity and launch angle to turn into home runs and extra-base hits.
  • He has the fastest swing in the Major Leagues, with an average bat speed of 79.6 mph. The faster your bat, the harder and farther you can hit the ball.
  • Of his AL-best 41 home runs, 27 are "no-doubters" -- gone at 30/30 MLB ballparks -- the most of any slugger in the big leagues.

Simpson is ALL contact:

  • He has zero barrels -- the literal only player, out of 245 qualifying hitters on Statcast's exit velocity leaderboard, without a single barrel all year.
  • His bat speed, at 65.0 mph, is one of the lowest in the league. 
  • But with his great bat control, he squares up the ball on the sweet spot of the bat at one of the highest rates in the league, which is why he's batting .311 and might win the AL batting title.
  • He ranks in the top 1% of Major League hitters in both swing-and-miss rate (just 10.4%) and strikeout rate (just 7.9%).

Home runs matter a lot in October, but so does having different types of hitters in your lineup. The Rays can beat you with a bloop or a blast. 

3) The Cubs are the best fielding team of the last decade

In the playoffs, where outs are at a premium, it sure helps to have an elite defense like the Cubs. 

And the 2026 Cubs' advantage in the field is like none we've seen since Statcast started tracking. They've now prevented more runs with their defense than any team of the last 10 years.

Highest team Fielding Run Value, Statcast era 

  • 2026 Cubs: +68 runs prevented
  • 2018 D-backs: +64 runs prevented
  • 2022 Yankees: +58 runs prevented
  • 2019 Guardians: +58 runs prevented
  • 2022 Astros: +52 runs prevented
  • 2019 D-backs: +52 runs prevented
  • 2024 Blue Jays: +50 runs prevented

Obviously the fulcrum of that all-world defense is Pete Crow-Armstrong in center field. PCA, on his own, is having the best individual outfield season of the Statcast era, and a top-five fielding season overall.

Top individual seasons by Fielding Run Value, Statcast era 

  • 2025 Patrick Bailey (catcher): +31 runs prevented
  • 2018 Nick Ahmed (shortstop): +28 runs prevented
  • 2026 Pete Crow-Armstrong (center field): +27 runs prevented
  • 2019 Javier Báez (shortstop): +26 runs prevented
  • 2017 Byron Buxton (center field): +24 runs prevented
  • 2016 Adam Eaton (right field): +24 runs prevented

But it's not just PCA. Almost every Cubs fielder who plays significant innings, from Crow-Armstrong and Dansby Swanson on down, is a strong defender.

And since the Cubs pitching staff has the least velocity in the Majors, and pitchers that are both fly-ball (Shota Imanaga) and ground-ball (Clay Holmes) specialists, it's extra important to have a defense that converts all kinds of batted balls into outs.

4) Tarik Skubal's changeup is a monster in October

This is why the Dodgers got Skubal. All eyes are going to be on the back-to-back reigning Cy Young winner and the playoffs, and he might have the single best wipeout pitch of anyone in the postseason. 

Skubal's changeup has been one of the best secondary pitches in baseball over the past three seasons, and it somehow gets even nastier in the playoffs.

Over his last two playoff runs with the Tigers, Skubal racked up 27 strikeouts on changeups alone -- the most by any pitcher on any one pitch type over the last two postseasons. Over half the plate appearances decided by his changeup were K's. 

Most K's on one pitch type, 2024-25 postseasons

1. Tarik Skubal's changeup: 27
2. Trey Yesavage's splitter: 22 
3. Kevin Gausman's splitter: 21 
4. Tarik Skubal's 4-seamer: 19 
5-T. Carlos Rodón's slider: 18 
5-T. Blake Treinen's sweeper: 18

And the swing-and-miss rate against Skubal's changeup in the postseason? A ridiculous 71%. That's the highest for any pitch type with at least 25 swings against it from 2024-25.

5) Jacob Misiorowski's fastball is going to be a monster in October

The Miz's triple-digit heater is going to take center stage as soon as the Brewers' postseason run begins. He's spent the regular season shattering basically every velocity record we have for starting pitchers. 

But what if he has even more in the tank when everything is on the line? 

In the regular season, two out of every three fastballs Misiorowski throws are 100 mph or faster. Over 40% are 101 mph or faster. Over 20% are 102 mph or faster. Almost 10% are 103 mph or faster.

That is just a preposterous amount of velo when you're throwing well over 1,000 heaters over the course of a season. No starter touches the Miz there. Now what will happen in the playoffs, when there are only a few games left to pitch? 

Last postseason, Misiorowski's velo got a bump from 99.3 mph to 101 mph -- albeit as he moved into a relief role -- and over three quarters of his fastballs were in triple digits. Now he's been sitting at 100.6 mph in the regular season. What if he can take it even higher …

6) Adley's defense can be a game-changer even if he's not hitting

Adley Rutschman was a blockbuster acquisition for the Red Sox at the Trade Deadline. As the Sox draw closer to the playoffs, the All-Star catcher has yet to really find his swing. But Adley can impact a playoff game just as much behind the plate as he can at the plate.

Rutschman has been one of the most valuable defensive catchers in the Majors this season, and the most valuable catcher on a team currently in playoff position. He's a great pitch framer, he controls the run game, and he's a solid blocker. 

Best defensive catchers on 2026 teams in playoff position

  1. Adley Rutschman (Red Sox): +12 runs saved 
  2. Freddy Fermin (Padres): +10 runs saved
  3. Austin Wells (Yankees): +7 runs saved
  4. Patrick Bailey (Guardians): +6 runs saved
  5. Christian Vázquez (Astros): +3 runs saved

He's also great at a new catching skill that might be magnified in the postseason: ABS challenges.

Rutschman is a very good challenger as a catcher, successfully overturning two thirds of the ball and strike calls he's challenged this season. He's 41-21 on challenges, including 19-9 since joining the Red Sox. Maybe he can create a strikeout for Boston's pitchers in a key moment or two this October.

7) The Phillies' big bashers are two of the best fastball hitters in the game

The playoffs are a showcase of the nastiest pitches in the game, and a lot of that is breaking and offspeed stuff. You have to be able to jump on fastballs when you get them -- even if they're the overpowering, extra-high-velocity fastballs October typically has to offer. 

The Phillies have two superstar sluggers in Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper who can do that. Schwarber and Harper are two of the three best fastball hitters in the game this season.

Highest batting run value vs. fastballs, 2026

  1. Yordan Alvarez: +32 runs created
  2. Kyle Schwarber: +30 runs created (27 HR, most in MLB)
  3. Bryce Harper: +28 runs created (18 HR) 
  4. Willson Contreras: +25 runs created
  5. Ben Rice: +23 runs created

They can slug velo, too. Against fastballs 97 mph or faster this season, Harper is slugging .523 with three home runs. Schwarber is slugging .525 with six homers, the most of any hitter.

This doesn't change in the playoffs, either. Since their first postseason run together in Philadelphia in 2022, Harper is the best fastball hitter in the playoffs, and Schwarber is fourth, with only Yordan and Juan Soto between them. Harper is slugging .778 with seven homers against fastballs, and Schwarber is slugging .722 with 10 homers.

8) Watch out for the Yankees' fastball varieties 

Fastball velocity goes up in October, and the Yankees have some explosive heaters -- led, of course, by Cy Young favorite Cam Schlittler, whose 98 mph four-seam fastball is tied for the most valuable pitch in the Majors this year.

But what you're really going to see from the Yankees' playoff rotation -- particularly Schlittler and Max Fried -- is a lot of different fastballs. Schlittler and Fried both throw all three types of fastball: four-seamer, sinker and cutter. That variety even within the same pitch group is going to give them an advantage attacking whatever type of lineup they face in the playoffs, and allow them to change up their pitch mix the more they face hitters in a game or series.

Look at their pitch usage from 2025, for example. Schlittler and Fried both mixed and matched their three fastballs in a more balanced way in the playoffs than they did in the regular season.

Schlittler in 2025

  • Reg. season: 56% 4-seamers / 20% cutters / 6% sinkers
  • Postseason: 43% 4-seamers / 24% cutters / 22% sinkers

Fried in 2025

  • Reg. season: 29% cutters / 18% sinkers / 12% 4-seamers
  • Postseason: 22% cutters / 20% sinkers / 12% 4-seamers

9) The Padres' bullpen is loaded 

We thought about picking "the Padres have three top-10 hitters since the All-Star break" for this (shoutout Fernando Tatis Jr., Jackson Merrill and Ty France), but bullpens play such an outsized role in October -- and San Diego has an awesome one. 

In fact, by Statcast's expected ERA metric, which takes into account a pitcher's quality of contact allowed, strikeouts and walks, the Padres have three top-10 pitchers: Bradgley Rodriguez (10th), Adrian Morejon (seventh) and, of course, Mason Miller (first).

We could really write this whole thing about Miller, who's simply the most dominant reliever on the planet and throws baseball's most unhittable pitch, his slider. 

Miller's slider has generated a 56% whiff rate this season, the highest of any qualifying pitch type on Statcast's leaderboard, and racked up a ridiculous 75 strikeouts. It misses bats by almost 10 inches on average, the biggest miss distance of any pitch type in the league.

Oh, and he threw that slider 60% of the time last playoffs. So you know it's coming again this October. You still won't be able to hit it.