This hypothetical All-MLB ballot may surprise you

November 17th, 2022

The All-MLB ballot is out, and some of the picks seem obvious -- Aaron Judge in the outfield, unanimous NL Cy Young Award winner Sandy Alcantara at starting pitcher and so on.

But take a closer look at the ballot, where fans can vote for the top player in MLB at every position, and you'll find there are a lot more deserving candidates than you might have realized.

Let's build an All-MLB Team out of those players. The ones who fans might not pick off the ballot at first, but who have an interesting case for their All-MLB candidacy this season.

Here's a surprising -- but defensible -- 2022 All-MLB ballot.

First base: Pete Alonso, Mets
Key stat: 10 HR in high-leverage situations
NL MVP favorite Paul Goldschmidt is on the ballot, plus Freddie Freeman, AL Silver Slugger Nathaniel Lowe and batting champion Luis Arraez. But how about the RBI king Alonso? Not only did he drive in more runs than anyone (except Judge, who tied him), but he was also great at doing it in key spots. Alonso hit 10 home runs in high-leverage situations, tied for the most of any hitter. He had a 1.099 OPS with runners in scoring position and a 1.133 OPS with two outs and runners in scoring position. Alonso's 26 extra-base hits with runners in scoring position led the Majors. There was also the lineup stability Alonso provided the Mets: He played 160 games and started 150 in the cleanup spot.

Second base: Tommy Edman, Cardinals
Key stat: +8.4 Base Running
Jose Altuve, Andrés Giménez and Jeff McNeil look like the favorites at second, but what makes Edman so valuable are things that you might not notice on a traditional stats sheet. He was MLB's best baserunner in 2022, with a +8.4 baserunning runs above average, per FanGraphs, and the third-best fielder in the Majors according to Statcast's Outs Above Average at +19. That made him the best defensive second baseman on the ballot by far (Giménez is next at +13 OAA).

Third base: Alex Bregman, Astros
Key stat: 87 BB to 77 K's
With two of the three NL MVP finalists being third basemen -- Nolan Arenado and Manny Machado -- and José Ramírez and Rafael Devers having similar-caliber years in the AL, Bregman's contributions to the World Series champs might be overshadowed. The reality is that Bregman was one of the toughest at-bats in the Majors: he drew 87 walks to just 77 strikeouts, making him one of six qualified hitters with more walks than K's, and one of only two who also slugged 20-plus home runs, alongside Juan Soto.

Shortstop: Bobby Witt Jr., Royals
Key stat: 30.4 ft/sec sprint speed
Julio Rodríguez wasn't the only electric power-speed rookie. Witt was the fastest MLB regular in 2022, with a 30.4 ft/sec sprint speed (30-plus is elite), and there's something to be said for that game-breaking speed. Witt ended up with 20 homers and 30 steals, making him the only shortstop to go 20/30 this season and one of only 10 to do it since 2000.

Catcher: Jose Trevino, Yankees
Key stat: +17 framing runs
The Yankees backstop was head-and-shoulders above the rest of the league in one of the most important catcher skills: pitch framing. Trevino saved the Yankees 17 runs from extra strikes -- the next-closest catcher was the Rangers' Jonah Heim at +12 framing runs. Trevino got called strikes on a league-best 54% of borderline pitches, way above the MLB average of 47%.

DH: Albert Pujols, Cardinals
Key stat: 18 second-half HR
Pujols' home run rampage when it mattered most didn't just get him to 700, it also propelled the Cardinals to the NL Central title. Only Judge hit more homers in the second half of the season than Pujols' 18, and only Judge had a higher OPS than Pujols' 1.103. Not even Pujols' MVP-finalist teammates Paul Goldschmidt (15 homers, .947 OPS) and Nolan Arenado (12 homers, .900 OPS) were better down the stretch.

OF: Juan Soto, Padres
Key stat: .401 xwOBA
A down season by Soto's lofty standards -- he went from batting .313 in 2021 to .242 in '22 -- meant he was overshadowed by fellow established superstar outfielders like Judge, Mookie Betts and Mike Trout, and by new ones like Rookies of the Year Julio Rodríguez and Michael Harris II. But if you look a little deeper, Soto's hitting skills were as elite as ever. His expected wOBA -- Statcast's overall offensive stat based on a hitter's quality of contact -- was fourth-best in the Majors, behind only Judge, Yordan Alvarez and Freeman. There's also the fact that he had an MLB-high 135 walks and only 96 strikeouts.

OF: Steven Kwan, Guardians
Key stat: 9.4% strikeout rate
The Yankees' inability to get Kwan out in the ALDS, during which he hit .429, showed why he's such a valuable hitter to have in a lineup. You just can't strike him out. Kwan struck out fewer than once in every 10 plate appearances, the second-lowest strikeout rate in the Majors behind Arraez, and Kwan only swung and missed 9% of the time -- also second to Arraez. Kwan actually had the second-most hits of any outfielder in 2022 with 168 -- only Judge had more. Kwan had over 100 more hits than strikeouts (60).

OF: Daulton Varsho, D-backs
Key stat: +17 OAA
Varsho is so versatile that he can play both catcher and center field … and be so good in the outfield that he led all MLB outfielders with +17 Outs Above Average in the regular season. He made six five-star catches (those with a catch probability of 25% or lower), more than anyone else. Add in his 27 home runs and 16 stolen bases, and you get a sneaky great all-around season.

SP: Spencer Strider, Braves
Key stat: 2.39 xERA
No Cy Young Award finalists allowed on this ballot. Strider's teammate, Max Fried finished second in NL Cy voting (not to mention his other teammate, Harris, is the one who won the NL Rookie of the Year over Strider, who finished second). But Strider was as dominant as any pitcher in 2022. He had 202 strikeouts in 131 2/3 innings and 13.8 K/9, and based on those K's and the way he suppressed hitters' quality of contact, Strider's expected ERA was just 2.39, per Statcast. That was the best of any starter besides Jacob deGrom, who only pitched 11 games in 2022.

SP: Shohei Ohtani, Angels
Key stat: 11.9 K/9
Ohtani's two-way superstardom and MVP race with Judge might distract you from the fact that even if he didn't hit a single home run, he'd be a deserving Cy Young candidate this year for his pitching alone. But he's not a finalist for that award in the AL, even though he had a 2.33 ERA and 219 strikeouts in 166 innings to make him the league leader in K/9. Ohtani's slider was the second-most valuable pitch in baseball after Dylan Cease's slider, and his splitter had the highest strikeout rate (63%) of any pitch with 100 or more plate appearances decided on it.

SP: Cristian Javier, Astros
Key stat: 1.55 ERA vs. winning teams
Javier flew under the radar pitching behind the Astros' two aces, AL Cy Young Award winner Justin Verlander and Framber Valdez. But even before he stole the show in the World Series by starting the Astros' combined no-hitter in Game 4, Javier had an All-MLB Team-worthy regular season -- especially with how he performed against other contenders. Javier posted a 1.55 ERA and 10.6 K/9 against teams that finished .500 or better in 2022, the third-best ERA by any pitcher to start at least five games against such opponents.

SP: Max Scherzer, Mets
Key stat: 7.21 strikeout-to-walk ratio
Scherzer's value comes from how he challenges hitters … and overmatches them. He had 173 strikeouts in his first season with the Mets, and issued only 24 walks. That's over seven strikeouts for every free pass, the third best strikeout-to-walk ratio among pitchers who threw at least 100 innings in 2022. And it's not like Scherzer was just attacking weaker hitters. Over two-thirds of his starts came against winning teams, and in those 16 starts he racked up 117 strikeouts to only 17 walks in 102 1/3 innings. He was one of only 17 pitchers to throw over 100 innings against opponents who were .500 or better, and he had the lowest ERA of that group (2.37) thanks to his approach on the mound.

SP: Yu Darvish, Padres
Key stat: -34 run value
Statcast assigns a run value to every pitch based on its outcome. A result that's good for the hitter gives a positive run value, and a result that's good for the pitcher gives a negative run value. Add those all up over a season, and you get the hitters who created the most runs for their teams and the pitchers who prevented the most runs for theirs. This season, Darvish's -34 run value for the Padres was tied for fourth-best in the Majors -- only Cy Young-winners Alcantara and Verlander, and Cy Young finalist Alek Manoah prevented more runs with their performance.

RP: Andrés Muñoz, Mariners
Key stat: 1.84 xERA
The 23-year-old flamethrower wasn't a closer for the Mariners, so if you're looking for saves you'll miss him, but Muñoz was right up there with the likes of Edwin Díaz and Emmanuel Clase in terms of how dominant he was in 2022. Muñoz's expected ERA of 1.84 was the lowest of any pitcher besides Díaz, and he was one of the top pitchers at getting hitters to swing-and-miss (42% whiff rate) and chase (39% chase rate), ranking in the top 1% of MLB in both categories.

RP: Jhoan Duran, Twins
Key stat: +4.59 WPA
A rookie with a 101 mph fastball, Duran also throws a unique pitch that made him stand out from the rest of MLB relievers in 2022: his "splinker," a splitter/sinker hybrid that became the first so-called offspeed pitch to ever reach triple digits in pitch-tracking history. But Duran is more than raw stuff -- his Win Probability Added was third-best of any pitcher, behind only Alcantara and Daniel Bard, meaning that even though he didn't pick up a ton of saves, Duran was still one of the most important pitchers in baseball in helping his team win real games.