Which of these surprise contenders have the best playoff chances?

57 minutes ago

Every baseball season is chock full of surprises, but this year could take that to the extreme.

Nearly a quarter of the way through 2026, there are a number of clubs that are much closer to a playoff spot than most expected on Opening Day.

But which of these clubs have the best chance to actually reach the postseason? We decided to rank six of this year’s most surprising teams, factoring in not just talent but also how clear each team's road to the postseason looks from here.

All numbers below are through Wednesday. For updated standings, click here.

1. Rays

With 12 wins in their past 13 games, the Rays have the best record (24-12) of any team on this list -- and the fourth-best record in MLB this season. Tampa Bay is the one of two AL teams, along with the Yankees, to have three qualifiers ranked among the league’s top 25 hitters in wRC+, with (12th at 145), (tied for 16th at 135) and (tied for 24th at 125) all off to strong starts. The Rays also have MLB’s fourth-best ERA at 3.58, and they’ve started to play better defense lately after struggling in that department early on.

Rotation depth is the biggest concern for Tampa Bay moving forward. is set to undergo season-ending hip surgery, and are on the IL with elbow problems and missed two full seasons before returning this year. It’s also going to be tough to win the American League East with the Yankees firing on all cylinders. But the Rays have given themselves a nice cushion in the AL Wild Card race.

2. Pirates

The Pirates (20-17) may be in fourth place in the surprising National League Central right now, but they’ve outscored their opponents by 23 runs and are mere percentage points behind the Brewers (19-16) in the race for the third NL Wild Card spot. Pittsburgh’s revamped offense is legit, especially with rookie phenom starting to find his form, and its rotation has MLB’s lowest FIP (3.30). Reigning NL Cy Young winner had a rough Opening Day start against the Mets, but he’s looked like his typical self over his past seven starts (1.31 ERA), and the Bucs have also gotten strong performances from (2.85 ERA) and (3.02 ERA).

The Pirates actually have a strong case to be No. 1 on this list, but it looks like it’s going to be tougher to make the playoffs in the NL than the AL this season, so we’ll slot them behind the Rays.

3. Athletics

This placement is as much about the state of the AL West as it is about the Athletics. Every AL West team is two games under .500 or worse except for the A’s, who are in first place at 18-18 despite a -21 run differential. The A’s still aren’t pitching much (4.67 ERA), and their offense has been much less potent than expected, averaging only 4.25 runs per game.

At the same time, the trio of , and probably isn’t going to carry a combined slugging percentage this low (.393) all year after finishing at .514 in 2025. If those three start hitting like everyone expected them to, the A’s should have as good of a chance as any team on this list to win their division, with only the Mariners likely to pose a legitimate threat.

4. White Sox

From 2023-25, the White Sox lost more games (324) than every other team in MLB and posted the second-worst run differential (-601) behind the Rockies. But things have started to take a turn for the better on the South Side of Chicago. Japanese slugger has been one of this season’s most compelling stories, producing 14 home runs with 28 RBIs and a .934 OPS over his first 37 games, while young shortstop has continued to flash plus power (nine homers) after a strong rookie year in 2025.

The White Sox are only 17-20 on the year, but they’ve gone 11-7 in their past 18 games to move within 1 1/2 games of first place in the AL Central, which was shaping up to be a wide-open race even before the Tigers lost ace to an elbow issue. Ultimately, Chicago’s playoff hopes may rest on whether (1.64 ERA) and (2.72 ERA) continue to provide stability in the club’s rotation.

5. Reds

The Reds actually made the playoffs last season, so it's hard calling them a surprise contender. But still, this is a team that has reached the postseason in consecutive years just once (2012-13) since they won back-to-back World Series titles in 1975-76. They also didn’t clinch a playoff berth last year until the final day of the regular season and entered 2026 with the fifth-longest playoffs odds (per FanGraphs) of any NL team. So it was definitely surprising to see them start out 20-11 in 2026.

Cincinnati, though, has had a tough time winning when and aren’t hitting. The Reds, who lost their sixth straight game on Wednesday, have relied on De La Cruz and Stewart to produce a combined 55.5% of their runs, the most of any pair of teammates this season. Meanwhile, (2.20 ERA) is the only member of Cincinnati’s rotation with an ERA below 5.09. ’s return from the IL could provide a boost, and is due back from elbow surgery in July. But in a division where every team is three games above .500 or better, this doesn’t look like a playoff-caliber roster right now.

6. Cardinals

This year was supposed to be the start of a rebuild in St. Louis after the Cardinals traded veterans , , and in the offseason. Instead, the Cards have started out 21-15, thanks in large part to the belated emergence of former top prospect and the early success of rookie .

What hasn’t changed, though, is the lack of swing-and-miss stuff on the Cardinals’ pitching staff. St. Louis has an MLB-worst 17.6% strikeout rate this season. No team has made the playoffs after posting a strikeout rate that low through 36 team games since the 2017 Twins. The last time a team made the playoffs with MLB’s lowest strikeout-generating pitching staff? No AL or NL club has ever done that, going back to the first World Series in 1903.