This one goes out to you schedule sticklers, the real ones who know that we are nearly halfway through the 2026 campaign. Teams will begin playing their 81st games on Tuesday, and the season will reach its exact midpoint (1,215 total games in) later this week.
We don’t (yet) have an exhibition game to mark the occasion, but we do have this look at what we’ve learned in the actual first half!
All stats below are entering Monday’s games.
1) We’re going to have fresh winners in the awards races.
The 2025 season marked the first time that both MVPs (Aaron Judge in the AL, Shohei Ohtani in the NL) repeated, the first time that both Managers of the Year (Stephen Vogt in the AL, Pat Murphy in the NL) repeated and just the sixth time this century that a Cy Young winner (Tarik Skubal in the AL) repeated.
Even with the unrelenting Ohtani in the mix, we’re going to have much more variety this year.
Judge’s extended absence with a rib cage injury opens the door to the first AL MVP not named Judge or Ohtani since José Abreu won the short-season honor in 2020. Triple Crown candidate Yordan Alvarez is making a strong case to join 2024 Ohtani as the only full-time DHs to win an MVP, but he has competition from Judge’s running mate Ben Rice, the well-rounded Bobby Witt Jr. and reigning AL Rookie of the Year Nick Kurtz, among others.
Thanks to the “Skubal Scope,” the Tigers’ ace made it back in a timely manner but will fall short of a three-peat. It’s not just that someone else will win it; the final ballots could be loaded with the likes of (current frontrunner) Cam Schlittler, Davis Martin, José Soriano, Parker Messick, Dylan Cease, Nick Martinez, Spencer Arrighetti and Joe Ryan, none of whom factored into the voting last year.
Paul Skenes won’t easily cede his NL Cy in the second half, but so far he hasn’t asserted himself in a stacked field that includes Jacob Misiorowski, Cristopher Sánchez, Ohtani, Chase Burns, Chris Sale, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Max Meyer and others. The NL race could be an all-timer.
At this point, we probably shouldn’t put it past Vogt and Murphy to win again, but an upstart season for Will Venable’s White Sox, a big bounceback from the Braves under their new skipper Walt Weiss, surprise surges from Oliver Marmol’s Cardinals and Blake Butera’s Nationals, a midseason turnaround for the Phillies under interim skipper Don Mattingly, the resurgence of Kevin Cash and the Rays and general voting history suggests there will be changes at the top of those Manager of the Year ballots.
Heck, even the Rookie of the Year races have veered off-course. The way Trey Yesavage and Nolan McLean finished 2025 made them seem like frontrunners for the 2026 honor, but right now you’d have to think the Tigers’ Kevin McGonigle and the Cardinals’ JJ Wetherholt are in the pole positions.
2) The American League is, um, there for the taking.
The so-called “Junior Circuit” has never looked more junior. It’s on pace for its worst collective winning percentage (.483). (Of course, a sub-.500 winning percentage only became possible with the advent of Interleague Play in 1997.)
But in great difficulty lies great opportunity (or so we tell ourselves). Right now, even the worst teams in the AL can at least try to talk themselves into being two good weeks away from the playoff race, and we’ll see what impact that has on teams’ willingness to punt or take their puncher’s chance at the Trade Deadline.
The Yankees are the only AL team with an elite run differential, and even they haven’t totally distanced themselves from the fray. We could see some wild swings in the AL in the second half.
3) The ABS Challenge System has an even bigger impact than expected.
While the number of challenges per game (4.2) is right in line with what we saw at the Triple-A level last year, the impact of those challenges has been more pronounced.
Challenges have been more successful at the MLB level this year (53% overturn rate) than they were at the Triple-A level in 2025 (50%). The goal is to get more calls right, and the system is doing that.
ABS leads to a tighter strike zone -- especially at the top end -- than had been enforced previously. And that’s helping to offset the continued decline of batting average in our high-velo, high-spin, pitch-shaping environment that is such hell on hitters.
The walk rate (9.1%) is the highest it's been in a full season since 2000 (9.6%). So while the leaguewide batting average has dipped one point (.245 to .244) from last year, the on-base percentage has actually increased five points (.315 to .320). The strikeout rate has fallen a small amount, from 22.2% to 22%, but it’s the rise in walks that is most notable.
4) The White Sox are a handful.
Just two years after setting a Modern Era record for losses and one year after dropping 102 games, the White Sox are one of the most fun teams to watch in MLB. It can happen that fast in a sport increasingly oriented around young talent.
The White Sox took the chance on Munetaka Murakami that many other teams wouldn’t. And even though he’s been sidelined with a hamstring strain since late May, his 20 homers and 41 RBIs before the injury helped set the tone for the Sox’s resurgent season.
We’ve also seen third baseman Miguel Vargas, shortstop Colson Montgomery, second baseman Chase Meidroth and center fielder Tristan Peters, all of whom are in an age-26-or-younger season, find their footing, all while the rotation has been surprisingly anchored by Martin and offseason pickup Seranthony Domínguez has helped settle the bullpen.
The Sox’s staying power is still a question, but they were one of the best stories of the first half.
5) Shohei Ohtani is a Cy-caliber starter.
We technically learned this when Ohtani took his pitching innings and impact to new heights in 2022 with the Angels and finished fourth in the AL Cy Young voting. But that was a major elbow surgery ago.
Ohtani is nearly 32 now and, you know, still doing something truly mind-boggling in performing in the two-way role. We went into the season with no guarantees that Ohtani’s schedule would provide enough volume for him to seriously contend for the Cy, but as the Dodgers have been tactical in giving him the day off from batting on some of the days he pitches, he’s averaged more than six innings per start, and he’s on pace for by far the best ERA+ of his career.
6) The Brewers (and Misiorowski) cannot be contained.
We know better than to be surprised by what the Brewers are doing as they maintain an NL Central edge with one of the best run differentials in the sport. They’ve reached the postseason seven of the last eight seasons and won the division in five of them.
But this organization’s continued ability to shed important pieces while remaining relevant is a marvel. Two of the Brewers’ top three in pitching WAR leaders last year were Freddy Peralta and Quinn Priester. The former was traded to the Mets, the latter won’t throw a pitch this season because of injury. And it hasn’t mattered at all.
One reason -- a big one -- is the emergence of Misiorowski, not just as a high-velocity curiosity but a legit ace who can avoid walks and dominate deep into games, something that was no certainty going into 2026 but is obvious now.
7) The Nationals and Cardinals haven’t looked like rebuilders.
Teams like the White Sox, A’s and Pirates might not have been widely predicted to contend for playoff spots, but at least contention fits within their internal timetables, as evidenced by recent moves made to augment their cores.
It’s different with the Nats and Cards, both of whom are coming off winters centered around subtraction from the MLB roster with a fixation on the farm. The Cards dealt away Sonny Gray, Nolan Arenado, Willson Contreras and Brendan Donovan. The Nats’ sell-off wasn’t as extreme, but it did see them wave goodbye to All-Star pitcher MacKenzie Gore.
So, it’s been entertaining to see real signs of earlier-than-expected life from these two squads. Wetherholt, Alec Burleson, Iván Herrera, Masyn Winn and a resilient rotation have given the Cards a high-energy identity. Meanwhile, the Nats have ridden a young core not just on the field, where James Wood and CJ Abrams (whom they wisely did not trade) lead a remarkably productive offense, but off it, where president of baseball operations Paul Toboni and Butera head up the youngest front office and coaching staffs in the game.
8) Left-handed hitters are having a moment.
Last season, these were the weighted on-base averages for each possible handedness matchup…
• Right-handed batter vs right-handed pitcher: .307
• Left-handed batter vs. right-handed pitcher: .324
• Right-handed batter vs. left-handed pitcher: .313
• Left-handed batter vs. left-handed pitcher: .292
As you can see, the most advantageous matchup for hitters was lefty hitters vs. righty pitchers. Meanwhile, that .313 wOBA for righty batters vs. lefty pitchers was the lowest of the pitch-tracking era (going back to 2008).
The above has apparently inspired teams to give more plate appearances to lefties. As of this writing, there are more lefties on pace to qualify for the batting title (69) than in any season since 1942! And because that results in more of those advantageous matchups, lefties are producing their highest wOBA (.325) since 2017 (also .325). The top of the OPS leaderboard is dominated by the left-handed, such as Alvarez, Kurtz, Rice, Wood, Ohtani, Juan Soto, Murakami and Kyle Schwarber.
9) The Tarik Skubal trade talk isn’t going away.
The Tigers didn’t trade Skubal over the winter, but they didn’t extend him, either. They went into this season expecting to contend for a World Series with Skubal, but his early injury was one of many for a Tigers team that has often melted down in the late innings and been anemic offensively.
Skubal is back now, and the Tigers have played better ball in June, starting the month 12-6. They desperately need to keep that momentum going, or else the trade chatter is going to get awfully loud in the coming weeks.
10) The Mets and Red Sox have some ’splaining to do.
For every surprise squad, there is usually a disappointing one. We mentioned the Tigers above, but there are more. The Blue Jays are having the dreaded hangover year, the Orioles aren’t gaining ground, the Royals aren’t taking enough advantage of Witt’s talent, and the Giants’ aggressive trade one year ago for Rafael Devers and unusual hire of Tony Vitello direct from the collegiate ranks have not merited much.
But the frustrations of the Mets and Red Sox feel even more pointed. After all, these are two of the most resource-rich teams in MLB, and yet they can’t seem to get out of their own way.
The Mets’ struggles date back a full calendar year now, and their bold reimagining of their roster over the winter has not prevented injuries and underperformance from making a mess of their 2026 season. Boston tried to cast itself as a pitching-and-defense darling, but a scuffling offense has made this the rare Red Sox team that can’t even string together runs at Fenway.
These are not places in which it is easy to preach “trust the process” patience.
11) The Braves are back.
The abrupt way in which the Braves’ run of seven straight postseason appearances ended last year felt fatalistic. They wouldn’t have been the only great team to come undone by age and injury. And even though the Braves retained a strong core going into 2026, the suspension of Jurickson Profar, an offseason injury to Ha-Seong Kim and spring injuries to pitchers Spencer Schwellenbach and Hurston Waldrep threatened to test their depth anew.
But the Braves stormed out the gate and haven’t looked back. It’s been an amazing organizational victory, from the confidence they had in Weiss to succeed Brian Snitker from within to the continued emergence of Drake Baldwin at and behind the dish to Michael Harris II making The Leap to the ageless Chris Sale fronting a rotation that takes a licking and keeps on ticking.
With Ronald Acuña Jr. navigating hamstring issues and Spencer Strider on the shelf, the challenges keep coming. But so do the wins.