For 5 bubble clubs, this week is critical

July 24th, 2019

We’re one week from the Trade Deadline, and things still aren’t settled. We can identify a few obvious buyers and some ready to sell. But a bunch of teams are someplace in the middle.

If you’re an optimist, you’re expecting that five-game winning streak that propels your team into the middle of the postseason pack. Or a five-game losing streak could at least bring some closure.

All of us -- even owners, executives and managers -- tend to see their teams for what they believe in their heart they can be instead of what they have been for the last four months.

If you ran these five teams, what would you do? Here’s a look at five teams still on the bubble as time winds down. And these decisions are tougher than ever this year now that there is just one Trade Deadline.

(All postseason odds are via FanGraphs.)

1. Giants (51-50)

Playoff chances: 7.6%

Trade chips: Left-handers and Will Smith and righty . Bumgarner and Smith are free agents after the season; Dyson has one more arbitration year before free agency.

Bottom line: No team has anything close to the dynamics swirling around it that the Giants do, and no team has overachieved the way this one has in having won 16 of 19 at the beginning of play Tuesday. While logic says new president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi should proceed with the reconstruction he was hired to oversee, he’s as much a fan as the rest of us.

Prediction: Damn the torpedoes! Hold onto Bumgarner and Smith and go for it. Giants fans remember the 2014 World Series winners got into the playoffs via the Wild Card.

2. Red Sox (55-46)

Playoff chances: 51.8%

Trade chips: Righty , DH , center fielder Jackie Bradley Jr. Porcello is a free agent after the season; Martinez can opt out of the final three years of his contract; Bradley has one more arbitration year before free agency.

Bottom line: So much attention has been focused on Boston’s bullpen problems that an underachieving rotation has gotten very little attention. Suddenly, the challenge for president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski and the Red Sox is leaping in front of the Indians, A’s and Rays in the race for the two AL Wild Card berths. Despite all the issues, the Red Sox have won 10 of 15 and are about to begin a stretch in which they play the Yankees eight times in 12 days.

Prediction: All in. Unless the Red Sox decide to trade right fielder Mookie Betts -- and that’s not going to happen -- they will play the season out and perhaps attempt to add a pitcher.

3. A’s (57-44)

Playoff chances: 26.6%

Trade chips: If the A’s decide to trade, they’ll listen to offers on almost anyone except third baseman and first baseman . Starter Mike Fiers and reliever Liam Hendriks would be in demand.

Bottom line: The A’s closed to within 4 1/2 games of the Astros for a couple of days last week but began Tuesday 7 1/2 out and most likely fighting for one of the two AL Wild Card berths with the Red Sox, Rays and either the Indians or Twins. Executive vice president of baseball operations Billy Beane upgraded the rotation by acquiring right-hander Homer Bailey from the Royals, and he seems likely to acquire more pitching help.

Prediction: For now, the A’s are buyers. And Beane and general manager David Forst love to fortify their roster at the Deadline.

4. Phillies (52-48)

Playoff chances: 24.1%

Trade chips: Third baseman Alec Bohm -- the Phillies’ No. 1 prospect, according to MLB Pipeline -- and No. 2 prospect Adonis Medina, a right-handed pitcher, will be sought in virtually every discussion for an impact veteran.

Bottom line: General manager Matt Klentak’s Phillies remain in the middle of the NL Wild Card race despite all of their injuries and poor performances. This leads to a classic Trade Deadline dilemma: Do the Phillies mortgage a bit of their future to land the bullpen and rotation help they’re likely to need to make the playoffs in 2019?

Prediction: The Phillies are buyers but are unlikely to surrender any of their top three or four prospects unless they can land, say, Tigers lefty , who would be under team control for three more seasons.

5. Angels (52-49)

Playoff chances: 2.1%.

Trade chips: Right fielder and a solid pool of prospects.

Bottom line: Top prospect Jo Adell -- ranked No. 4 overall in the Minors -- is untouchable as general manager Billy Eppler works to upgrade his rotation and give his team a chance to enter September with its playoff hopes alive. His problem is that there aren’t enough starting pitchers available to satisfy all of the teams in the market, and Eppler is unlikely to make a deal that would deplete an improving Minor League system.

Prediction: Definitely not selling. Hunting for bargains.