BALTIMORE -- Trevor Rogers was the 2025 Most Valuable Oriole Award winner. He was Baltimore’s 2026 Opening Day starter. He was one of the best pitchers in baseball from May 24 of last year through April 7, nearly impossible to score against for large stretches of that span.
So what’s happening now?
After carrying over the positive momentum from last season by posting a 1.89 ERA through three starts this year, Rogers’ run of success has been halted. The 28-year-old left-hander endured his third consecutive tough outing on Saturday afternoon at Camden Yards, where he allowed three runs in only 1 2/3 innings during a 17-1 loss to the Red Sox.
Rogers threw 62 pitches -- 47 of which came during a laborious second he couldn’t complete -- in his shortest appearance since Sept. 17, 2022 (a career-low one-inning start for the Marlins at Washington). It’s tied for the second-shortest outing of his 108-start MLB career, as he also went 1 2/3 innings on April 16, 2022, while pitching for Miami against Philadelphia.
Over Rogers’ past three starts, he has a 9.53 ERA, as he previously allowed four earned runs in 4 2/3 innings vs. Arizona on April 14 and six runs (five earned) in five innings at Cleveland last Sunday. His season ERA has risen from 1.89 to 4.75 during that span.
“I felt really good going into today. My body feels good. I think my stuff’s in a really good spot,” Rogers said. “I’m just going to keep working and keep staying disciplined and I know, in the long run, this will turn around.”
So, let’s try to explain what needs to happen for that turnaround to occur, because Rogers appears to be correct about his stuff -- his average four-seam fastball velocity of 93.2 mph on Saturday was higher than his mark last year (92.5 mph), and he generated nine whiffs (including five with the heater).
At least a bit of regression was always likely for Rogers, who put up numbers in 109 2/3 innings over 28 starts last season that were unsustainable for a full season’s workload. The .226 batting average on balls put in play vs. the southpaw showed some good fortune, as did his left-on-base rate of 84.2%.
It’s often said to hitters that putting balls in play will lead to good results, and yet that wasn’t the case last year against Rogers, who was also continuously working his way out of trouble.
In order to have success, Rogers needs to effectively use his four-seamer as a putaway pitch. That’s what he did last year, when he had a 23.3% putaway rate with the offering (tied for 24th among 158 MLB pitchers who threw at least 150 four-seam fastballs last season).
Entering Saturday, Rogers’ four-seam putaway rate was 13.3%, which ranked 130th out of 169 qualified pitchers (a minimum of 25 four-seamers thrown in two-strike counts). Then, he was unsuccessful in putting away any Red Sox hitter with the heater -- despite attempting it 11 times.
“It’s just the execution. Just the two-strike execution and getting to the spots where he needs to get it to,” manager Craig Albernaz said. “To me, that should be something that he’s going to fix here soon.”
Boston fouled off 14 of Rogers’ pitches, 12 of which came during the prolonged second.
“I'm doing a really good job of getting guys to two strikes early. The swing-and-miss is there. I just really can't get over the hump of getting that third strike,” Rogers said. “You’ve just got to give credit to the hitters. It's just gone their way. ...
“I know if I continue to do what I need to do and keep throwing the pitches in good spots, eventually, it's going to go my way. I pride myself on getting contact and getting guys to swing the bat. I'm doing that. It's just falling and just some big innings right now.”
There are some positive signs. Rogers’ hard-hit rate is much better than it was last season. And he’s thrown plenty of good innings, outside of a four-run fifth against the D-backs, a four-run fourth against the Guardians and the three-run second against the Red Sox.
Plus, Rogers has bounced back from adversity before -- such as when he recorded a 7.11 ERA in his first four Orioles starts in August 2024, then returned in ‘25 in the best form of his career.
“I put a lot of work in on the mental side of the game, and this is what it’s for, tough times like this,” Rogers said. “Just continue to do what I do and be there for the guys and be a good teammate, and this will turn around.”