Following an ugly couple of games in Washington punctuated by a 7-5 loss in the finale, the Twins board a flight Thursday afternoon to … Cleveland. It’s not the first place they’d choose, given recent history, but it is a significant opportunity.
Over the last four seasons, Minnesota has gone 9-21 at Progressive Field, winning exactly one series in that time -- back in 2023. It’s been a bit of a house of horrors, with a string of walk-off and one-run losses.
The good news, though, is that if the club can turn that around, it can also make a dent in the standings. Even following Thursday's defeat, the Twins are just 3 1/2 games behind the first-place Guardians in the American League Central.
Here are a few keys to ending the hex that the Guardians have had at home against the Twins.
Clean it up
The two losses in Washington were marred by unforced errors of many different stripes. Twins pitchers issued nine walks over the two games and hit two batters on Thursday. Defensive mistakes proved costly, most notably a ball that dropped between Luke Keaschall and Matt Wallner in a pivotal fifth inning.
And then there were the outs on the bases, most noticeably when Austin Martin was caught in a rundown after missing a stop sign at third base, short-circuiting a burgeoning opportunity in the third. It wasn’t necessarily a mistake when Kody Clemens was thrown out trying to score on a fly ball to center in the second, but it was a costly out on the bases.
“There were a lot of things we need to improve in that game,” manager Derek Shelton told reporters. “Austin slips coming around third, was he too far? Maybe. I don’t know. But when he slips, he’s in trouble. The popup, we can’t have that. We can’t have that ball fall like that. We gave away runs, between that and walks. We can’t walk and hit guys. We cannot give free passes and add outs, or give up outs like that.”
And if there’s one thing we’ve seen over the years when the Twins go to Cleveland, it’s that those types of missteps get highlighted. The Guardians never seem to make a mistake at home, and they punish every one the Twins make. The visitors will need to play clean baseball to get a series win.
Don’t leave it up to the bullpens
Even early in the year, the Twins bullpen wasn’t putting up great numbers. But the offense scored enough runs, and the rotation turned in enough good starts, to make it less obvious. That has to be a big part of the formula in Cleveland.
The Guardians have routinely won bullpen battles with the Twins in recent years, and this year their bullpen ERA is nearly two runs better than Minnesota’s. So while it’s not impossible to win a game in the late innings, a better strategy is avoiding being in that position.
That’s where it helps that the Twins send three starters to the mound who can make that a reality. Rookie Connor Prielipp has been impressive in three starts in place of Mick Abel, and then the Twins turn to Joe Ryan and Taj Bradley, their two best starters. There will be some breath-holding until Ryan comes through his outing healthy, but the Twins have the best chance to win when they start Ryan or Bradley.
Ball go far, team go far
Small ball is nice, but home runs win games. Cleveland has been a mid-pack pitching team this year, but the Guards have been susceptible to the long ball. They’ve allowed the fourth-most homers in baseball, with 49. Meanwhile the Twins have hit the 10th most, with 43 -- four more than Cleveland.
On the flipside, Twins pitchers have allowed 38 homers, but that total has been spiking recently. Cleveland hitters rank 16th with 39 home runs. They can make you pay, but it’s a lineup you should be able to keep mostly in the park.
The weather looks mostly mild by the lake this weekend, so conditions could be fairly favorable. It’s not as simple as “hit more homers and you’ll win,” but it sure wouldn’t hurt.