Nats will make most of this team skill in '19

Turner, Robles and Co. fuel Washington's need for speed

March 12th, 2019

WEST PALM BEACH, Fla. -- One of the things the Nationals are so intrigued about is seeing how much of a factor their speed will be.

Speed? Wait, what? Isn’t speed so 1982? Yes, mostly. But not always.

 “Obviously if you have it, you’re going to use it to your advantage,” Nationals third baseman Anthony Rendon said.

The Nationals have it. According to Statcast’s Sprint Speed leader board, Washington will be MLB’s fourth-fastest team in 2019. In shortstop Trea Turner and rookie center fielder Victor Robles, Washington could have two of baseball’s fastest players. Factor in two other speedsters -- outfielders Adam Eaton and Michael A. Taylor -- and the Nationals see speed as an important part of their game, and their attitude.

Speed is also aggression.

  “Definitely,” Rendon said. “That’s one of the things you want in the back of the other team’s mind. If they’re thinking about that, they may leave one over the plate or throw more balls. It’s one other aspect of the game.”

  OK, deep breaths all around. The Nationals aren’t attempting to reinvent baseball in 2019. They didn’t sort through stacks of dusty boxes and discover these cute little things from another place and time.

  That thing -- the stolen base -- is less important now than at any other time in modern history. When Whit Merrifield of the Royals led the Majors with 45 stolen bases last season, it was the lowest total for an MLB leader in 55 years.

  Remember when Rickey Henderson swiped 130 bags in 1982 and Vince Coleman got 110 in ‘85? Coleman was successful 81 percent of the time, so he’d be a weapon in any era.

  More Statcast data courtesy of MLB.com’s Matt Kelly: MLB teams averaged 0.51 steals per game last year, which was the lowest figure since the big leagues expanded to 30 teams in 1998. It was hovering around 0.52 from 2015-17.

  On the other hand, as Rendon said, if you’ve got it, you should use it.

  “We look at baserunning in its entirety as an important part of run creation,” Brewers president of baseball operations David Stearns said via email. “Stolen bases are a part of that -- certainly stolen base efficiency is a big part of that -- but taking the extra base effectively is also an important aspect of gaining value on the bases.”

  Efficiency is a key.

  “You can’t just run to run,” Eaton said. “You have to have a higher percentage. Maybe 70 percent was acceptable a few years ago. Now you need to be at 80 or 85.”

  In 1979, teams stole more bases and were successful only 65 percent of the time. Last season, teams stole fewer bases but were successful 72 percent of the time, which translates into more offense.

  Baseball’s top four base-stealing teams last season -- the Indians (135), Rays (128), Red Sox (125) and Brewers (124) -- all won at least 90 games. Only Tampa Bay’s success rate was below 78 percent. The Nationals were fifth with 119 steals and successful 78 percent of the time.

  Turner was second in the Majors with 43 stolen bases in 2018 and was successful 83 percent of the time. To have that kind of weapon and not use it makes no sense.

 “Analytics has shown where you can pick up runs here and there,” Turner said. “It’s something I take pride in. It puts pressure on the other team and can make up for some other areas. If you can pick up a handful of bags, you could make a difference in the game.

  One other factor: some hitters do not like bases being stolen when they are hitting. To them, it’s a distraction. Rendon does not mind, and with Turner and Eaton batting in front of him, he may see a lot of them.

  “If Trea is on first and I’m up to bat, I know I can be a little more patient, because I’m going to give him that opportunity to steal second," Rendon said. "I’ve told Trea if I see him get a good jump, I don’t care if I have one strike on me, I’ll take it. I’m not going to change my approach or be intimidated with two strikes. If he’s on second base, I’m all for it.”

  In what is expected to be a four-team NL East race, every inch may end up being important. The Nationals see this as the larger point: taking advantage of their entire game.

  “We can beat you in many different ways,” Nationals manager Dave Martinez said.