It’s July, which means All-Star month and the colloquial end of the first half of the season. It certainly isn’t too early to start trying to project what the October postseason field will look like. Are our current division leaders for real?
Here’s a look at those current leaders and what the playoff field could look like. Note, all stats below exclude the shortened 2020 season and instead look at full seasons for the impact and postseason implications.
What it means to be in first place
Since 1996, the first full season with at least one Wild Card, 111 of 174 eventual division champions held at least a share of that division lead entering July 1. That’s 64% of division winners.
Take note, Rays, White Sox, Rangers, Braves, Brewers and Dodgers fans -- those are the teams that currently lead their divisions.
Last season, just two of the six division leaders on July 1 went on to win their divisions, both in the National League. In the American League, the Yankees, Tigers and Astros led their divisions entering July. The Yankees and Tigers made the playoffs as Wild Cards, while the Astros missed out entirely. Remember, the Guardians pulled off the largest divisional or league comeback since 1900.
It was the second time since the start of 1996 that none of a certain league’s division winners had at least a share of that lead entering July. It happened in 2007 in the NL.
In the NL, the Phillies, Cubs and Dodgers led. The Phillies and Dodgers won their divisions, while the Cubs made it as a Wild Card.
If you were wondering, there have been three seasons in this span where all six division champions held at least a share of their division lead entering July 1: 1996-97 and ‘99.
Since 1996, 19 of the 29 World Series winners, excluding 2020, led their divisions entering July. The Dodgers did so each of the last two years.
This year’s leaders overall
Of this year’s current division leaders entering July, each has had at least a share of that lead entering July at least one other time since the start of 2021.
Each of the current leaders has won its division in that span as well, except the Rangers, who last did so in 2016.
The Dodgers lead the NL West by 12 games. That’s tied for the fifth-largest division lead entering July, with the 2019 Dodgers (divisional play began in 1969), according to the Elias Sports Bureau. Only the 2001 Mariners (20-game lead), 2017 Astros (13 1/2), 2022 Yankees (12 1/2) and 1999 Cleveland (12 1/2) led by more at this point.
What’s next
Even three-plus months in, there’s still plenty of baseball left to be played. But fans of the six division leaders can take some comfort in knowing that, historically, more than half of those teams have gone on to win their divisions. And for fans of teams that aren’t in playoff or division-leading position, there’s still plenty of hope -- while 64% of these teams go on to win their divisions, that means 36% do not, too. We saw that fact on full display last season. Only time will tell.