Inbox: Which draftees will top prospect lists?

July 28th, 2022
Elijah Green and Brooks Lee should take over the No. 1 spot in the Nats and Twins rankings, respectively.

The busiest month on the prospect calendar continues with Draft signings and the Trade Deadline. Let's get to your questions ...

Time to ask the yearly question: Which draftees immediately become their team's No. 1 overall prospect once they sign? -- J.P. S. Springfield, Ill.

I've answered J.P.'s annual query going back to my days writing "Ask BA" for Baseball America, and I like the way it always makes me think. It's somewhat stunning that the two best prospects and top two picks in the 2022 Draft -- Orioles shortstop Jackson Holliday and D-backs outfielder Druw Jones -- won't rank No. 1 in their new organizations when we overhaul all of our lists in mid-August. That's because Arizona has outfielder Corbin Carroll at No. 2 among the current Top 100 Prospects, and Baltimore has right-hander Grayson Rodriguez and third baseman/shortstop Gunnar Henderson at Nos. 3 and 4.

I only see two obvious new No. 1 prospects from the Draft. Outfielder Elijah Green, who has the highest ceiling of any player in the 2022 class, should displace right-hander Cade Cavalli with the Nationals. Shortstop Brooks Lee, the best pure hitter in the college crop, should move ahead of injured shortstop Royce Lewis with the Twins.

The Pirates and Royals are two more systems with close calls, but I'd give the edge to the incumbent. Middle infielder Termarr Johnson, the best high school hitter in years, can't quite dislodge catcher Henry Davis (the No. 1 overall pick in 2021) with Pittsburgh. Vinnie Pasquantino is about to graduate from prospect status and leave fellow first baseman Nick Pratto atop our Kansas City Top 30, and Pratto will remain slightly ahead of outfielder Gavin Cross, one of the top hitters from the college ranks.

How do you like KC's return for Benintendi? -- @phares_tim

The first major trade of Deadline Week went down as I was writing this Inbox. The Royals shipped All-Star outfielder Andrew Benintendi to the Yankees in exchange for three pitchers: left-hander T.J. Sikkema (No. 21 prospect in Royals system) and right-handers Beck Way (No. 12) and Chandler Champlain.

I thought Kansas City might land a higher-rated headliner in the deal, though Benintendi is slugging just .399 and will be more of a nice complementary player than a cornerstone in New York. All three of the arms the Royals received are legitimate prospects and bolster their pitching depth, and the trade seems equitable for both sides.

The 38th overall pick in the 2019 Draft, Sikkema is a polished and creative lefty starter with a solid fastball and slider. Way has the best arm of the trio with a four-seam fastball that reaches 99 mph and a slider with power and sweep, though he may wind up in the bullpen in the long run. Champlain has made a jump in his first full pro season, displaying a mid-90s fastball and mid-80s slider, and he too may be more of a reliever than a starter.

Now that both Jung brothers are signed, where do you rank them among best sibling prospects in Pipeline history? -- @antman_92

Second baseman Jace Jung just joined the Tigers as the 12th overall pick in the 2022 Draft, three years after older brother/third baseman Josh went to the Rangers as the eighth overall choice. I looked at the entire history of MLB.com preseason Top 100s, which date back to 2004, and came up with five brother combos that I rank in this order based on their prospect status when on the list:

1. B.J. & Justin Upton
2. Kyle & Bradley Zimmer
3. Dee Strange-Gordon & Nick Gordon
4. Oswaldo & Orlando Arcia
5. Garin & Gavin Cecchini

It's likely that Jace Jung will make the preseason Top 100 next year, and when he does, he and Josh would fit between the Arcias and Cecchinis. The Jungs have upward mobility because Josh entered this season ranked at No. 29.

Shawn's question got me thinking about the best brother duos in the MLB Draft, which started in 1965. So let's rank those as well, again based on their prospect status at the time:

1. B.J & Justin Upton
2. J.D. & Stephen Drew
3. Dmitri & Delmon Young
4. Ken & George Brett
5. Andy & Alan Benes
6. Jeff & Jered Weaver
7. Rickie & Jemile Weeks
8. Josh & Jace Jung
9. Phil & Joe Lansford
10. Isaiah & Phil Clark

The Uptons top both lists and both B.J. (No. 2 overall, 2002) and Justin (No. 1, 2005) were the consensus best prospects in their Drafts. J.D. (No. 2 in 1997, No. 5 in 1998) and Stephen (No. 15, 2014) Drew also had some support as the top players in their Drafts, though signability knocked them down a bit. A third Drew, Tim, went in the first round (No. 28) in 1997.

If this is the first Pipeline Inbox after the Draft, isn't it time for your annual 10-round self-draft? -- Jim C., Winnetka, Ill.

Yes, it is, and yes, that's me asking my own question. As a challenge to see how well I can identify talent, I'd been making picks through 10 rounds since 2003, adhering to the same budget restrictions that teams have to deal with. My first 19 self-drafts have produced 54 big leaguers, including Jason Heyward, Kyle Freeland, Kyle Gibson, Chris Archer, Bryan Reynolds and Dakota Hudson as well as current Top 100 Prospects Brett Baty, Hunter Brown and Kahlil Watson.

I've never selected higher than eighth, and this year I drew the Athletics to shadow. Oakland had the No. 19 overall pick in the first round, one extra choice (a supplemental second-rounder) and an $8,320,200 bonus pool, which I can stretch to $8,736,210 without forfeiting any future first-rounders.

Just like the A's, I was happy to see Arizona catcher Daniel Susac unexpectedly fall in my lap at No. 19. Then I stole a pair of players who received first-round consideration in Oregon State outfielder Jacob Melton and South Carolina prep third baseman Tucker Toman. After I took my only two pitchers, Gonzaga right-hander Trystan Vrieling and Texas Tech righty Brandon Birdsell, I pounced on another South Carolina high school third baseman in Logan Wagner before concentrating on some money-saving college bats.

My draft:
Round: Player, Pos, School (Actual pick)

1st (No. 19): Daniel Susac, C, Arizona (OAK, 1st)
2nd: Jacob Melton, OF, Oregon State (HOU, 2nd)
Supp 2nd: Tucker Toman, 3B, HS/South Carolina (TOR, supp 2nd)
3rd: Trystan Vrieling, RHP, Gonzaga (NYY, 3rd)
4th: Brandon Birdsell, RHP, Texas Tech (CHC, 5th)
5th: Logan Wagner, 3B, HS/South Carolina (LAD, 6th)
6th: Brad Cumbest, OF, Mississippi State (COL, 9th)
7th: Andrew Jenkins, 1B, Georgia Tech (DET, 9th)
8th: Taylor Young, 2B, Louisiana Tech (LAD, 8th)
9th: Michael Curialle, SS, UCLA (STL, 12th)
10th: Brock Rodden, 2B, Wichita State (OAK, 10th)