Shota Imanaga continued his strong September with his best start in a month, this time against an opponent bound for October baseball.
Imanaga threw six innings of one-run ball in the Cubs’ 8-4 win over the Braves at Wrigley Field on Wednesday, striking out eight and allowing four hits. It was his third straight quality start -- and the best of the trio -- lowering his September WHIP to 0.78 and his month’s ERA to an even 2.00.
He broke out his trademark splitter to its heaviest usage of the season and used it to record 14 of his 20 whiffs, while the 14 balls the Braves put in play came out with an average exit velocity of 83.6 mph, his lowest since June 29.
More and more, it’s looking like Imanaga left a rough patch in August -- which ended with a two-inning start in Seattle, followed by a three-homer barrage by the Reds -- in the rearview. Now, the question turns to what the road in front of him will look like.
With nine games left on the schedule, the Cubs (85-68) are looking at their second straight season going to the NL Wild Card Series, currently sitting tied with the Phillies (85-68) for the top spot and five games ahead of the D-backs (80-73) for the last, with the tiebreaker in hand against every other team in the race. They’ll be able to clinch a postseason berth as soon as Saturday in Cincinnati, with home field still to play for.
With the best-of-three Wild Card Series, of course, comes pitching decisions, particularly in the rotation. And while much of the calculus as to who gets the ball to start involves who’s tabbed to start the final series of the regular season at Fenway Park, the Cubs have the benefit of two off-days in the final 11 days of the slate -- Thursday and Monday -- to reslot however they see fit, plus another day between the regular-season finale and Game 1 of the Wild Card set.
If Craig Counsell decides to not reslot on either end of the series vs. the Reds, it would be Imanaga starting Game 1, with Clay Holmes following him and Matthew Boyd on tap for the if-necessary Game 3.
Those three could indeed be Counsell’s trio to open the playoffs, though the order could well change. It’s not nothing that Boyd was the Cubs’ Opening Day starter, nor that he started Game 1 of the Wild Card Series vs. San Diego last year. Holmes, meanwhile, got off to a blazing hot start after coming to the North Side at the Trade Deadline. He’s never started a postseason game, but in 20 relief innings, he boasts a 1.35 playoff ERA.
On the other hand, that would mean leaving Kevin Gausman out of the rotation. And while the 35-year-old has been inconsistent since joining the club -- three starts of seven innings, four starts of five or fewer and just one in between -- Chicago did part with two ranked prospects to get him, and one of the reasons for bringing him in in the first place was for big-game experience.
With 56 1/3 playoff innings under his belt, Gausman has gotten more October outs than Imanaga, Holmes and Boyd combined. Last season, he posted a 2.93 ERA in six postseason appearances (five starts), earning the win out of the bullpen in Game 7 of the ALCS before posting quality starts in Games 3 and 6 of the World Series.
The last piece of the puzzle could come down to who the Cubs match up against. Last year, Counsell had Imanaga go for Game 2 of the Wild Card Series vs. San Diego after an opener to try to limit his at-bats against the righty-heavy top of the Padres’ lineup. The plan backfired doubly -- San Diego scored in the first inning and righty Manny Machado still got to Imanaga with a two-run homer. If the current standings below the North Siders flip and it is, in fact, a two-man decision between Imanaga and Gausman to face San Diego, Counsell could avoid the issue and give the ball to the right-hander.
On the flip side, Imanaga could be a better matchup vs. the Phillies’ lefties. Indeed, back in April the southpaw mowed his way to six innings of one-run ball with 11 strikeouts in Philadelphia, then followed it a week later with seven innings of dominance at home against the Phils.