This story was excerpted from Keegan Matheson’s Blue Jays Beat newsletter. To read the full newsletter, click here. And subscribe to get it regularly in your inbox.
TORONTO -- Which teams in the AL Wild Card race truly scare you?
The Tigers have played well, even after dealing ace Tarik Skubal to the Dodgers, and their +85 run differential sticks out in the sea of negative numbers. The Orioles have at least handled themselves well against teams with winning records. The Mariners, stuck in a disappointing season, have the rotation to make a run.
Should any of these teams truly scare the Blue Jays, though? Are any of them undeniable?
It certainly doesn’t feel like it, and until that changes, the red-hot Blue Jays might be the team everyone else in this race is keeping an eye on.
This is why they can pull it off:
1. The rotation isn’t just surviving, it’s thriving
Dylan Cease is going to be good, maybe even win the AL Cy Young Award. José Soriano is just fine, too. The Blue Jays would feel great about their one-two punch in a Wild Card Series or ALDS.
Beyond that, though, the Blue Jays are being saved by a rotation that has every excuse to be crumbling. Shane Bieber and Max Scherzer have held strong, and the Blue Jays even survived a bullpen day on Saturday, taking down Cam Schlittler and the Yankees by rolling out seven relievers.
Every button manager John Schneider presses is working right now. It still feels very dangerous to bet on this sustaining for the final six weeks of the season, especially considering the massive workload this bullpen has taken on, but it’s working for now.
Trey Yesavage just underwent left knee surgery to repair his meniscus, so if he can pull off a comeback late in the season, that would likely be in a shortened role. Spencer Arrighetti has a shot at returning much sooner, though, after pitching Sunday in a Triple-A Buffalo rehab outing. That would give the Blue Jays a legitimate No. 5, and if he could give them something in the range of his career 4.66 ERA with stable innings, that’s more than enough.
2. A soft, soft schedule
Pointing to other teams’ weaknesses doesn’t feel like the most inspiring argument for the Blue Jays, but isn’t this what the Wild Card race is all about right now? Sure, they’re playing their best baseball of 2026, but we’re still talking about a team with a losing record. They’re in this race because the rest of the American League is weak in the middle.
After playing the Rays and Yankees on the road this week, the Blue Jays roll right into a dream ending for their final 30 games. They’ll close out with series against: Royals, Mariners, Guardians, Royals, A’s, Orioles, Tigers, Rangers, Orioles and Reds.
None of those teams have a winning record. Of course, this needs to come with the disclaimer that any team can beat any other club in the big leagues, but let’s not kid ourselves. If you’re in a postseason race, this is the schedule you want.
3. The offense can’t get any worse
This is another one of those points that doesn’t feel terribly inspiring, but there’s something to it. Schneider kept coming back to the “law of averages” around the All-Star break, firmly believing that the Blue Jays’ best baseball was ahead of them because they were getting their bad baseball out of the way early.
Well, it’s averaging out, isn’t it?
Only the Mariners have scored fewer runs than the Blue Jays across MLB, and frankly, their recent run hasn’t been much more encouraging on offense. Perhaps the Blue Jays can ride this scrappy brand of small ball into the postseason, but eventually, they’ll need to expand their brand beyond hitting singles.
“I think there needs to be a little bit more of a blend of extra-base hits there,” Schneider said. “That's been a big difference. I don't want to compare last year to this year, but it's been a big difference to where you can generate some offense quickly. Singles are great when they're coupled with some doubles or homers.”
That’s the beauty in how low the bar is right now. The Blue Jays don’t need to turn into the 1927 Yankees overnight, they just need to turn into an average offensive ballclub. They don’t need Vladimir Guerrero Jr. to turn into Aaron Judge when he eventually returns from the seven-day concussion IL, they just need an OPS over .800 down the stretch with a few homers. This should be doable, and if the Blue Jays can pair that with this level of pitching and some tight defense, anything is possible.