This story was excerpted from Mark Bowman’s Braves Beat newsletter. To read the full newsletter, click here. And subscribe to get it regularly in your inbox.
ATLANTA -- Given what Braves fans have witnessed over the past few weeks, they’ll likely find this as comforting as a root canal. But it’s worth noting Atlanta won’t be joining some exclusive club if it reaches the playoffs after losing 13 of its final 17 games in June.
Each of the past four postseason fields have included three teams that lost 13 of 17 at any point of a season:
2022: Yankees, Guardians, Mariners
2023: Rays, D-backs (NL champs), Rangers (World Series champs)
2024: Phillies, Yankees (AL champs), Mets
2025: Tigers, Guardians, Mariners
How did something so good turn so bad so fast? Are we talking about Drake Baldwin or the Braves? Yeah, they actually go hand-in-hand. Baldwin’s value to this lineup has certainly been highlighted this season. The offense rolled when he was healthy and it has faltered since he strained his left oblique muscle on May 18.
Here are a few thoughts about why things will improve over the next few weeks and months.
1) The Acuña Factor: It still looks like Ronald Acuña Jr. will return from his hamstring strain after the All-Star break. The 2023 National League MVP hasn’t performed at his normal elite level, producing a .793 OPS over 53 games. But it’s no coincidence that he was hurt on June 9, the same day the Braves began their slide. His presence in the leadoff spot positively impacts the rest of the lineup.
The Braves have gone 37-16 when Acuña has played this season and 13-18 when he hasn’t. The dynamic outfielder has missed 31 of the team’s games. Yet, he still has a team-leading 15 steals and is tied with Matt Olson for the team lead in walks.
Acuña’s return could also lead to the Braves cutting ties with Ha-Seong Kim, who has been a $20-million bust. With Acuña back, Mauricio Dubón will be free to be the regular shortstop.
2) The Baldwin Factor: Baldwin played just one rehab game after missing a month with an oblique strain. Chipper Jones is the only player I’ve covered who could miss that much time and find instant success without a rehab stint.
Speaking of Jones, he is among the many who can’t see anything mechanically wrong with Baldwin, who enters Thursday 4-for-51 since returning from the injured list. The .225 OPS he produced in 12 June games is the lowest figure produced by any Braves player in any month (min. 50 plate appearances) since the team moved to Atlanta in 1966.
Baldwin’s struggles seem to be just a product of regaining his timing and the plate discipline he’s shown in the past. The reigning NL Rookie of the Year didn’t forget how to hit. This is the same guy who ranked fourth among all NL players with the 156 Weighted Runs Created Plus he produced before being sidelined with the oblique strain.
3) The Suarez Factor: Top setup man Robert Suarez will also likely return from the injured list after the All-Star break. As long as everyone else stays healthy, the Braves would then be positioned to go through the remainder of the season with one of the game’s best bullpens.
We’ve already seen how good this group can be with Raisel Iglesias, Dylan Lee and Suarez serving as a three-headed monster at the back end of the ’pen. You also have Didier Fuentes’ prized young arm providing great value.
Now, how good might Grant Holmes prove to be back in the bullpen with his slider, which has produced a 41 percent whiff rate this year? The Braves can transition Holmes to the bullpen as long as Reynaldo López proves he can at least be serviceable back in the rotation.
As I said in a newsletter earlier this week, I feel good about what Hurston Waldrep could give this rotation going forward. López’s effort on Wednesday night gave me more confidence he can get back to where he was in 2024, when he posted a 1.99 ERA over 26 appearances (25 starts).
4) More rotation help: Bryce Elder posted one of MLB’s five-best ERAs over an 18-start stretch that ran from Aug. 2025 through most of May. The past month has been rough. But along with three ugly ones, he did have two good starts in June. I’m still expecting him to be more like the guy from the 18-start stretch than the one that struggled recently.
As for AJ Smith-Shawver, his fastball was buzzing in the high 90s as he made his first Minor League rehab start on Tuesday. The Braves were really thrilled with the effectiveness of his curveball. You hate to put any unreasonable expectations on a pitcher coming back from a UCL surgery. But Smith-Shawver might at least be able to help fill a rotation void at some point during the season’s final two months.