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It’s the first pair of AppleTV+ games coming off the All-Star break, and they don’t disappoint. We kick it all off at 7 p.m. ET with the Cubs visiting the Phillies and then the Guardians at the White Sox. Below, I’ll give two plays from each game that I like and sweat along with all throughout the evening.
Cubs at Phillies
The wager: Phillies Moneyline
Line: -130 (bet $100 to win $77)
The Phillies should start their unofficial second half with a win here tonight against the Cubs. In games that Kyle Gibson has started, the Phillies have gone 11-7, giving an ROI on the moneyline his games at 26.4%. Prior to the break, Gibson was enjoying a solid month of July, throwing 17 innings, and posting a 3.71 ERA by allowing just seven runs on 13 hits and 12 strikeouts. This Cubs offense shouldn’t give him much trouble, as they continue to struggle at the plate. In the month of July, this team has combined to score just 50 runs, which ties for 26th in the league over that span. They’re slashing just .212/.285/.334 with a 75 wRC+, all of which are near the bottom of the league.
The matchup on the Phillies is what ties all this together. They’ll be taking on Justin Steele, who has issues with his command. He’ll start this game with a 4.04 BB/9 while striking out less than a batter an inning. Putting men on base is when his struggles begin, as his wOBA jumps from .281 with the bases empty to .324 when they’re occupied. With men in scoring position, it goes up to .350. Steele also has a drastic difference in his splits on the road, posting a 5.86 ERA compared to the 3.29 at home. Give me the Phillies to win this game at -130.
Cubs at Phillies
The wager: Rhys Hoskins over 1.5 bases
Line: -115 (bet $100 to win $87)
On the surface, you may not be jumping at the opportunity to go over the total bases for Hoskins. Prior the break, he was hitting just .208 in the month of July, collecting 11 hits through 53 at-bats. Not great numbers! However, here is what caught my attention. Of the 11 hits, seven of them went for extra bases with four home runs and three doubles. That’s a good sign. On top of that, a lot of the power he’s hit for this season has come against lefties. He has 22 hits against lefties and 12 of them have gone for extra bases. With Steele relying on contact for outs, I think this is a great spot to go over 1.5 bases on Hoskins, something he has done in 37 of the 91 games he’s played. That accounts for just under 41% of his season. We’ve also seen Hoskins collect at least two hits in a game 19 times, so it’s not out of the question he can do it, even without an extra-base hit.
Guardians at White Sox
The wager: White Sox Run Line 1st 5 Innings -0.5
Line: -115 (bet $100 to win $87)
With this bet, we’re looking for the White Sox to have the lead after the first five innings conclude. A lot can be said about how Lucas Giolito has pitched as of late, however, he has found success against this Guardians club. In two starts, including his last before the break, Giolito has gone 13 1/3 innings, allowing just two runs (one earned) on 11 hits with 10 strikeouts. Giolito’s results have been very shaky since the calendar turned to June, but he’s mixed in some really strong starts along with the others.
What I do like on the White Sox side is their matchup against Cal Quantrill. While his 3.75 ERA looks nice, he does sport an xERA of 4.52. Quantrill relies on contact for outs, as his 5.6 K/9 is one of the lowest amongst starters with at least 100 innings pitched. He’s also been hit hard by the White Sox in both starts he’s made against them, allowing eight runs on 17 hits and six strikeouts through 12 1/3 innings. If they jump out to an early lead as they have before, I think we can easily cash this run line bet at -115.
Guardians at White Sox
The wager: White Sox Team Total Runs over 4.5
Line: -105 (bet $100 to win $95)
Going off the same sentiment from the last play, I’m also interested in taking the over on the team total for the White Sox. With the struggles that Quantrill has endured against this team, I expect more of the same tonight. In both games, the White Sox scored four runs off him, putting them in a position to need just one more against the bullpen. While we cannot expect that exact result again, I am anticipating a good majority of these runs to come from Quantrill. When he departs, that’ll open an opportunity to score the remainder off this shaky Guardians bullpen.
During the month of July, they’ve combined for a 5.09 ERA through 53 innings. That ERA currently ranks as the fifth highest in the league over that span, allowing a total of 30 earned runs. In the nine games the White Sox have faced off against the Guardians, they’ve averaged five runs per game, which is exactly what we need to cash this play.
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