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We’re focusing primarily on moneyline bets available on DraftKings Sportsbook this Tuesday, but there are a couple props that stand out, too.
Follow along on Twitter (@Nick_Friar) for updates.
Left-handed pitchers may be Pittsburgh’s preferred matchup at the moment (.171 ISO), but they’re still striking out a lot against them. Since the start of September, they have an absurd 34.8% strikeout rate against lefties. That number only gets worse when you shift the focus to the road (38.5%). While Cortes isn’t hammering the over on this number like he did earlier in 2022, he’s shown he can still punch out six-plus in the correct matchup. And while no two lefties are the same, José Quintana -- who’s far less of a strikeout pitcher -- getting four punchouts on just 82 pitches is a promising sign for Cortes on Tuesday.
The Marlins are a decent 19-16 as home favorites, but that does not at all indicate they’re a team Chicago can’t handle on Tuesday. In fact, the Marlins winning Monday’s meeting shifts things a little bit in the Cubs’ favor. Following a win, Miami is 24-36 this season.
Now, the Cubs aren’t a lock after a loss themselves, but this lineup managed to handle Pablo López well the last time they saw him. Although the Cubs’ lost Adrian Sampson’s outing in that early August series, the right-hander logged a quality start vs. Miami. Given Sampson has largely maintained that level of play since he last saw the Marlins and López has been very up and down, the Cubs have a good chance to snap their ongoing three-game skid.
García only has a .192 average against left-handed pitching this month. While he is striking out against lefties a bit, 16.7% isn’t an overwhelming number. His low average has more been the result of bad luck, with his .158 BABIP within the split serving as evidence.
Patrick Sandoval hasn’t given up a lot of flies to right-handed hitters over his last five starts, but they are hitting a lot of line drives (25%). Garcia is also getting the ball airborne often against left-handers, and that’s helped lead to an absurd .308 ISO against them this month. That power is all we need for this play to hit -- García’s straight up total bases prop is set at 0.5 with a low payout, which is why we’re tacking on the Rangers to score a run via DraftKings Sportsbook’s Same Game Parlay function.
The Mets haven’t been particularly tough on right-handed pitching this month. However, they just got to Corbin Burnes for five runs. While the Milwaukee right-hander hasn’t been the same pitcher he was in 2021, achieving that level of production against him is no small feat. So, Aaron Ashby is likely to have a tough return from the injured list.
Regardless of how he performs, Ashby’s outing is expected to be short. If this turns into a bullpen day, that also plays into New York’s hand. Since the start of September, Brewers relievers have combined for a 3.99 ERA and 4.04 FIP.
Lastly, the Mets will turn to Carlos Carrasco on Tuesday. Outside of a two-game rough patch, he’s dealt post-All-Star break. The Brewers have posted good power numbers against right-handed pitching since the start of September, but Carrasco has found ways to handle challenging lineups throughout this strong run.
Although the Cards are slight underdogs on the moneyline, the Padres are actually the run line dogs on DraftKings Sportsbook. That hasn’t been a common occurrence for San Diego this year, only having played 10 games at Petco Park as underdogs throughout 2022. They’re only 4-6 in that scenario, but that’s too small a sample size to consider.
What’s not is St. Louis’ play as road favorites. The Cardinals, who come in off a loss -- a scenario in which they thrive -- are 24-14 straight-up when favored on the run line away from St. Louis.
It’s well-documented Adam Wainwright prefers to pitch at home. But, the right-hander has still been serviceable outside of Busch Stadium. More importantly, the St. Louis offense has been thriving against righties on the road this month. Since the start of September, the Cardinals have a .220 ISO and 13.8% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching on the road.
As much as the Padres aren’t striking out much against right-handers in San Diego this month, they only have a .133 ISO within the split. Mike Clevinger does his best pitching at home, but he’s also not anything overwhelming. In fact, he has struggled quite a bit in September, giving up 15 runs across 13 1/3 innings.
All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
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