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Summer may unofficially be over with Labor Day in the rearview, but there’s no shortage of baseball betting options on DraftKings Sportsbook Tuesday.
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Even with the Orioles having done so much this season, seeing them and the Blue Jays both listed a -110 in a meeting is remarkable. Just looking at the rosters alone, it doesn’t add up. But Baltimore continues to be one of the best stories of the season.
More importantly, the Orioles have a pitching advantage in this one. Although Toronto has hit Kyle Bradish hard in the past, the right-hander has generated a 50% ground-ball rate and 28.3% hard-contact rate across his last 35 2/3 innings. The Blue Jays have just a .131 ISO against right-handed pitching since mid-August, and that’s largely due to the fact they have a 50% ground-ball rate during that span.
Baltimore, on the other hand, has a .176 ISO against righties since Aug. 15, which has been powered by its 40.5% fly-ball rate during that span. Mitch White is coming into Tuesday off a pair of abysmal outings after starting his Blue Jays career on a good note. What’s worse: White got rocked by the Angels and Cubs, who’ve been middling against right-handed pitching.
Also worth noting: The Orioles are 36-27 after a loss and 38-27 in Baltimore.
Paolo Espino has had some solid outings for the Nationals, but St. Louis absolutely has the pitching advantage with José Quintana on the bump. Moreover, Espino has more trouble against right-handed hitters, and the Cardinals feature two of the game’s best in Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado. St. Louis’ lineup on the whole has been crushing right-handed pitching of late, posting a .175 ISO against them since mid-August. Conversely, the Nationals have a .139 ISO against left-handed pitching in that same time frame.
But those numbers aren’t even the most interesting ones surrounding this play. Washington torched the Cardinals, 6-0, on Monday. Coming off a win, the Nationals are 18-29 on the run line; that’s the work mark in all of baseball. They’re also a less-than-stellar 34-40 on the run line as road underdogs. St. Louis, on the other hand, is 26-19 on the run line as home favorites -- the second-best mark in MLB. And coming off a loss, the Cardinals are 37-18 on the run line -- once again, the second-best mark in MLB.
Any time Alvarez is at plus-money to hit the over on this prop while facing a subpar right-handed pitcher, it’s worth serious consideration. It doesn’t matter the type of form Alvarez is in, this scenario is one that always favors him.
Now, Alvarez’s August was about as bad as it gets for him against right-handed pitching. His ISO against righties was just .035, and he only had a .193 average. But, some of that was definitely the result of bad luck. He only had a .262 BABIP against right-handers last month despite posting a 52.4% hard-contact rate.
Alvarez will face a familiar opponent in Glenn Otto, who he’s 3-for-10 against with two doubles. Otto had a 5.38 FIP against lefties last month, thanks in part to the fact he only had an 18.3% strikeout rate against them. Another reason being they logged a 40% fly-ball rate against Otto in August, which plays into Alvarez’s hand.
Kelly continues to pepper the over on this number, striking out at least five in each of his last nine starts. On the season, he’s 19-for-27 when it comes to going over Tuesday’s strikeout prop. In 2022 road starts, he’s only 6-6 when it comes to going over this number, but he’s logged five-plus strikeouts in each of his last six outings away from the desert.
Now, the Padres may not jump out as a strikeout-happy lineup. That’s because they generally haven’t been one. However, since mid-August, they have a 23.2% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching. When you focus solely on their home games, that number increases to 25.1% during that span.
There are quite a few ways to attack this game. The under on Cole Irvin’s strikeout prop (4.5) jumps out, as do the overs on some Atlanta total bases props (Austin Riley being No. 1) and the Braves’ run total (4.5). But taking Atlanta on the run line is the best blend of value and room for error.
Irvin is coming off a rough outing against a depleted Nationals lineup. Navigating this Atlanta offense, which has a .176 ISO against left-handed pitching since mid-August, should provide a much tougher task for Oakland’s Tuesday starter.
And while Irvin is coming off a rough performance, Kyle Wright enters his first September start fresh off a red-hot August. Following his six-run nightmare on Aug. 4, Wright only gave up three runs over 26 frames in his ensuing four starts. Atlanta is 19-6 in his starts this season and 11-1 in Wright starts since June 23. Twelve of those 19 victories have multi-run wins, seven of which have come in his last 12 performances.
Additionally, the Braves are 25-16 on the run line as road favorites. Oakland is a rough 22-30 on the run line as road underdogs, and it's 22-27 on the run line after a win.
All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
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