The wild 5-team tiebreaker, explained

March 13th, 2023

After Pool A of the World Baseball Classic ended in a five-way tie, Cuba and Italy are advancing to the next round.

Cuba wins the pool based on tiebreakers and will face Australia, the Pool B runner-up, in the quarterfinals. Italy advances as the runner-up team -- clinching a spot in the second round with a huge 7-1 win over the Netherlands in the final game -- and will face Pool B winner Japan in the quarterfinals.

Every team in Pool A finished with a 2-2 record -- Cuba, Italy, the Netherlands, Panama and Chinese Taipei. That kicked the WBC's tiebreaking procedures into effect.

Here's what you need to know about the tiebreakers and why Cuba and Italy are the teams advancing.

The tiebreaker that decided Pool A was: fewest runs allowed per defensive out recorded.

In other words, divide each team's total runs allowed in pool play by the total number of outs they recorded on defense. The two teams with the lowest numbers advance.

  • Cuba allowed 15 runs in its four games, and recorded 108 outs, resulting in a ratio of .139 runs allowed/outs recorded. That was the lowest in Pool A.
  • Italy allowed 17 runs in its four games, and recorded 108 outs, resulting in a ratio of .157 runs allowed/outs recorded. That was the second-lowest in Pool A.

Note: The first tiebreaker the World Baseball Classic uses is head-to-head record between the tied teams. But that couldn't be used to decide Pool A because all five teams were tied (meaning they all had the same 2-2 record against the other tied teams).

Runs allowed per defensive out recorded is the second tiebreaker. The World Baseball Classic's language reads as follows: "The tied teams shall be ranked in the standings according to the lowest quotient of fewest runs allowed divided by the number of defensive outs recorded in the games in that round between the teams tied."

Here were the final standings in Pool A based on the tiebreaker:

  1. Cuba (2-2) -- 15 runs allowed / 108 outs recorded = .139 runs/out
  2. Italy (2-2) -- 17 runs allowed / 108 outs recorded = .157 runs/out
  3. Netherlands (2-2) -- 19 runs allowed / 102 outs recorded = .186 runs/out
  4. Panama (2-2) -- 21 runs allowed / 105 outs recorded = .200 runs/out
  5. Chinese Taipei (2-2) -- 31 runs allowed / 105 outs recorded = .295 runs/out

The Pool A standings came down to the final game.

First: Italy's 7-1 win over the Netherlands in the final game of Pool A is what created the five-way tie.

If the Netherlands had won, it would have finished 3-1 and won the pool. There would have been a three-way tie for second between Cuba, Panama and Chinese Taipei at 2-2, and Cuba would have advanced because it beat both of the other two.

Second: Italy's margin of victory over the Netherlands is what leapfrogged them over the Netherlands into the runner-up spot and let them advance.

The Netherlands entered the game with a lower ratio of runs allowed per out recorded. And if the final score had been closer than 7-1, it still could have advanced over Italy.

A pivotal moment for the tiebreaker was when the Netherlands had the bases loaded and nobody out in the sixth inning and did not score. A big inning for the Netherlands there could have swung the standings in its favor.