HOUSTON -- The storylines for the Astros' upcoming road trip, which begins Tuesday with a huge series against the Phillies at Citizens Bank Park, are as enticing as you could hope for the final month of the regular season.
The Astros head to Philadelphia clinging to a two-game lead atop the American League West, with the second-place Rangers hot on their heels. Houston also owns the tiebreaker over the Rangers, so it’s essentially a three-game lead with 18 games remaining.
FanGraphs has the Astros with a 79.1% chance to make the postseason -- after they missed it last year for the first time since 2016 -- and a 76.7% chance to win the AL West. But they have work to do.
“We’re going to go up, show up, compete and let the best man win,” said Astros shortstop Jeremy Peña, who was the World Series Most Valuable Player as a rookie in Houston’s Fall Classic win over the Phillies in 2022.
For the Astros, nine of their next 12 games loom as large as any on the rest of the remaining schedule. That includes two series against the Rays and Braves, both of whom are 85-58 and are in first place in their divisions. The Phillies are 80-63 and have a comfortable lead in the National League Wild Card race.
The good news for the Astros is they’ve made it a habit of rising to the occasion. They are 32-23 this year against teams with .500 records or better, taking the season series from the White Sox, who lead the AL Central, as well as a sweep of the Cubs in Wrigley Field and winning five of six from the Red Sox.
The trip to Philadelphia is only the second the Astros have made since winning the 2022 World Series against the Phillies, which included a mammoth home run from Yordan Alvarez in Game 6 in Houston. Alvarez comes to the City of Brotherly Love leading the AL in batting average and RBIs and tied for the league lead in home runs.
Alvarez hit his 38th home run of the season in Sunday’s 3-2 loss to the Diamondbacks, which was only his third homer since Aug. 1. Houston is 19-14 when Alvarez hits a home run this year and 54-57 when he doesn’t. The Major League home run leader is currently Kyle Schwarber of the Phillies (42), meaning two of the game’s premier lefty sluggers will be battling it out at Citizens Bank Park.
From there, the Astros will pay a visit to Tropicana Field -- their first since 2024 -- for a weekend series with the Rays. The series will be the last head-to-head meeting of the AL’s two leading MVP candidates: Alvarez and Junior Caminero of the Rays, who is tied for the AL home run lead with 38.
Houston’s starting pitching has been terrific in the past few weeks, posting a 2.81 ERA in the team’s last 16 games. But the same can’t be said of Houston’s erratic offense, which has a .204/.281/.347 slash line in the past 12 games and is averaging only 3.5 runs per game.
“You go back to a few weeks [ago], we’ve been playing great baseball,” Peña said. “As long as we keep winning ballgames, that’s all that matters.”
The drop-off in production of Alvarez and leadoff hitter Peña (.563 OPS in his past 24 games) is the biggest reason why Houston’s offense has struggled of late.
“I’m just working on putting together good ABs, having a good plan going up to the plate and executing,” Peña said. “It’s a matter of swinging at better pitches and getting pitches you can handle. Good things happen when you swing at good pitches.”
The AL Player of the Month for July, Alvarez is slashing .281/.417/.456 with three homers and 13 RBIs since Aug. 1. Those are solid numbers, but a considerable drop in production from the .324/.426/.641 slash line with 35 homers and 82 RBIs that Alvarez put up through the end of July.
“He’s been pitched very differently, been pitched very tough, which is expected,” Astros manager Joe Espada said. “He’s getting his hits, he’s getting his walks. The ball hasn’t left the yard [much], but I think it’s coming. I think there’s going to be a stretch there where he’s going to come out and hit home runs. The quality of the at-bats has been there.”
With a possible AL Triple Crown and MVP on the line in the coming weeks, Alvarez has a chance to make a statement in what’s a huge week for the Astros. And it starts Tuesday night in Philadelphia.