Padres provoke both skepticism, optimism

Rotation, bullpen help on the way, but tough upcoming schedule will test Friars

September 2nd, 2021

PHOENIX -- The Padres turned the calendar to September, eager to leave a brutal month behind them as they push for the second Wild Card spot in the National League. But for one day at least, those August struggles felt inescapable.

Their starting pitching faltered, their bats fell flat early and their bullpen was taxed as the Padres dropped their finale with the D-backs at Chase Field, 8-3, on Wednesday afternoon. With the loss, San Diego fell a half-game behind Cincinnati for the second Wild Card spot.

“We definitely had a rough road in August, and obviously the record shows it, but we're a confident team,” Padres third baseman Manny Machado said earlier this week. “We just stay confident in each other that things will turn around. We know what type of ballclub we have. We have great players all around. ... We've still got a lot of baseball ahead of us -- and we've got really good baseball ahead of us.”

Considering their performance over the past month, there are quite a few reasons for skepticism surrounding the Padres’ playoff push. As Machado noted, there are reasons for optimism as well. Here’s a look at three of each:

Reason for skepticism: Darvish's struggles
There was a time when it felt like a foregone conclusion that Yu Darvish would get the ball for Game 1 of a postseason series or the NL Wild Card Game. As things stand, he looks like the third pitcher in the Padres’ rotation, at best.

Darvish, who has dealt with back and left hip trouble over the past two months, has seen his ERA jump from 2.44 to 4.05 since the start of July. He says he’s feeling healthy, and resolved to fix his current struggles.

“As far as my confidence goes, obviously it’s not that high,” Darvish said. “That said, I’ll be going in tomorrow to the stadium on the off-day, trying to get things back on track, work on some stuff.”

Reason for optimism: The rest of the rotation
Joe Musgrove says he's pitching as well as he's ever pitched, and who could argue? Blake Snell hasn't allowed a run in either of his last two starts (and didn't allow a hit on Tuesday). Chris Paddack looked sharp in his return from a left oblique strain on Monday.

For once, the Padres' rotation feels fairly complete around Darvish.

“Obviously, the other starters have been performing very well,” Darvish said. “For me, it’s just about trying to get back on track and contribute to the team.”

Reason for skepticism: The schedule
The Padres did themselves no favors by playing .500 baseball against the Rockies and D-backs, the two teams at the bottom of the NL West. Their schedule has been tame for about a month and a half, and yet they lost ground in the standings.

Now, over the season's final 4 1/2 weeks, the Padres will play 26 of their 28 games against teams with a winning record, including 23 against teams occupying a playoff spot.

Reason for optimism: The Padres can withstand it
So the Padres played .500 ball against the Rockies and D-backs? They've also played .500 ball against the Giants and Dodgers. In fact, for whatever reason, San Diego has a better record against winning teams than losing teams.

That's not necessarily a reason to expect the Padres to continue playing well against those teams. But this might be: As they struggled against the weak part of their schedule, they did so with a banged-up pitching staff. Now? San Diego's staff is healthy, and the club has five more off-days on the schedule to reconfigure their pitching plans as needed.

Reason for skepticism: The bullpen is taxed
Padres relievers have covered more innings than any team in baseball this season, which is starting to take its toll. After leading the Majors in bullpen ERA with a 2.94 mark through July, that mark has since jumped to 3.22, which ranks third in MLB.

Drew Pomeranz is out for the season following left elbow surgery, and once-reliable arms like Austin Adams and Tim Hill have begun to falter lately.

Reason for optimism: Welcome back, Dinelson Lamet
The Padres could use a high-octane arm with swing-and-miss stuff for the late innings. Well, after four stints on the IL this season with right elbow and forearm trouble, Lamet made the switch from the rotation to the bullpen. After one outing, he looked like what San Diego has been searching for.

Lamet threw 19 pitches (15 strikes) and induced seven swings and misses. He allowed a double, but struck out three Arizona hitters in one inning.

“If he can do that, throw that fastball and the Lamet slider, obviously he can throw some meaningful, meaningful innings down the stretch,” manager Jayce Tingler said. “I think that’s what we’re looking forward to.”