After career-best '23, expectations higher for Kikuchi in '24

March 31st, 2024

ST. PETERSBURG -- The old might have unraveled completely, then spent the next five days thinking about it.

Kikuchi wasn’t at his very best in Saturday’s 5-1 loss to the Rays, but as you can tell from that “1”, neither was the Blue Jays’ offense. A new year brings new expectations for Kikuchi, though. The Blue Jays don’t just want to see the 2023 version of him again -- they need it.

The game itself eventually unraveled, of course, when reliever Génesis Cabrera delivered a two-handed shove to the neck and face of the Rays’ José Caballero after he’d been tagged out at third in the seventh inning. The dugouts cleared quickly, but the two sides retreated after a quick group chat and Cabrera was ejected.

Kikuchi’s innings earlier in the game teetered on the edge, at some points dominant and at other points a little more nerve-wracking. The Blue Jays are more confident that he’ll fall in the direction of 2023, though, not ‘22, as he continues to build on the confidence he’s discovered over the past 12 months.

“Last year, he was searching for delivery stuff, a new pitch with a curveball,” said manager John Schneider, “but now he’s locked in on what he’s doing. His changeup is a big pitch for him and it just comes down to locating for him, really, where he’s locating his fastball and slider. I think he’s in a great spot. I have all the confidence in the world in him.”

Spring Training was ugly for Kikuchi, but he’d earned the right to tinker.

In the spring of 2023, Kikuchi was trying to prove he deserved a rotation spot and quiet the early doubts surrounding his contract. This spring, coming off a great season, he could feel more secure in his place on this roster and focus on specific things.

It’s the ultimate example of why a big ERA in camp might not always tell the story… even if Kikuchi’s 14 earned runs allowed over 7 2/3 innings (16.43 ERA) was particularly difficult to look away from.

“I was able to work on things in Spring Training,” Kikuchi said. “We all know I was working on that changeup and I was able to bring that into the game today using my changeup and curveball effectively. I want to build on that going into my next start.”

From here, the Blue Jays need to see Kikuchi tighten up his control and work deeper into games. Another inning-plus would have been valuable, particularly given that Kevin Gausman has about 75 pitches to work with in Sunday’s finale. If Cabrera is suspended after Saturday’s shove, that further tightens the bullpen.

The confidence that tied together Kikuchi’s game last season is still there, though, which is why Schneider and the Blue Jays’ staff are so optimistic.

“Last year was a noticeable difference, then even more this year with him just being comfortable around everybody and more comfortable with what he’s trying to do,” Schneider said. “He’s hitting a good spot with [himself], being comfortable with Pete [Walker] and his teammates. He’s probably one of the most well-liked guys in the clubhouse.”

More than any pitcher on this roster, perhaps, you can see Kikuchi’s confidence translate into results on the mound. When he struggles, early counts tend to get away from him and he nibbles at the edges of the zone, an approach that rarely serves him well. Besides, his stuff is good enough to put over the plate and challenge hitters with.

It’s surprising at times, given Kikuchi’s smaller stature, that he can produce just about as much movement and velocity as anyone on this staff. His fastball topped out at 97.3 mph Saturday, and if that changeup can keep producing a few whiffs here and there, it’s a dangerous combination.

Also helping Kikuchi’s confidence? His teammates. They just plain like the guy.

“He’s really funny,” Schneider said. “He’s an easy guy to gravitate toward. When he’s dealing, he’s leg-kicking and he’s excited, it’s just so easy to gravitate toward him. Quietly, in here, he’s really, really funny.”

It’s time for that confidence and momentum from 2023 to keep Kikuchi rolling. Bowden Francis has earned plenty of confidence as the new No. 5, but given the likelihood that the Blue Jays’ rotation needs to dip into its depth more than it did a year ago, it needs Kikuchi to be just as reliable. That’s the new expectation that comes with his success.