This story was excerpted from Todd Zolecki’s Phillies Beat newsletter. To read the full newsletter, click here. And subscribe to get it regularly in your inbox.
Zack Wheeler first said a few weeks ago to NBC Sports Philadelphia that he might pitch beyond his current contract, which expires at the end of the 2027 season.
He said it again Tuesday to USA Today.
But the third time is the charm, isn’t it?
“My saying is, never say never,” Wheeler repeated on Wednesday afternoon at Citizens Bank Park.
When Wheeler signed his three-year, $126 million contract extension in March 2024, he said he would not pitch beyond the deal. But why stop when he is pitching like this? He is having another Cy Young-caliber season, which is most impressive considering he had thoracic outlet surgery in September.
Wheeler is 10-2 with a 2.16 ERA in 16 starts. Despite not making his season debut until April 25, he ranks second with 5.1 bWAR for pitchers and ninth with 3.0 pitching fWAR.
Wheeler doesn’t have enough innings to qualify for the ERA title, but he could qualify as early as his next start Monday in Miami.
His 2.16 ERA would rank third in baseball.
Those numbers (and others) have pushed Wheeler into legitimate NL Cy Young consideration. He has been runner-up twice. He finished second behind Milwaukee’s Corbin Burnes in 2021, despite throwing an absurd 46 1/3 innings more than Burnes. He finished second to Atlanta’s Chris Sale in 2024.
Wouldn’t it be something if Wheeler edged out Milwaukee’s Jacob Misiorowski and Phillies teammate Cristopher Sánchez in 2026, despite throwing fewer innings than both?
It could happen.
If Wheeler continues to pitch like this and if he pitches beyond 2027, he could also push for enshrinement into the National Baseball Hall of Fame.
The thought has crossed his mind.
Wheeler is 123-77 with a 3.22 ERA in his career. Now, he won’t sniff 300 wins. He probably won’t even sniff 200. In the future, though, milestones like 200 and 300 wins won’t matter as much, as BBWAA Hall of Fame voters look at starting pitchers differently than they have in the past.
MLB.com’s Mike Petriello wrote about Wheeler’s Hall of Fame candidacy in Nov. 2024. He found that since the end of World War II, 16 of 20 pitchers that had the best fWAR in a seven-year span are in the Hall of Fame or will be in the future (i.e. Justin Verlander and Clayton Kershaw).
The other four are Roger Clemens, Curt Schilling, Dave Stieb and Johan Santana.
Wheeler has the best fWAR (31.7) from 2020-26, despite missing the final two months last year and the first month this year.
For what it’s worth, he also has the best bWAR (35.9) in that seven-year span.
If WAR isn’t your bag, then look at the old-school numbers. From 2018-26, Wheeler is first in MLB in wins (102); second in innings (1,456 2/3) and strikeouts (1,585); ninth in WHIP (1.05) and eighth in ERA (3.05).
His 2.18 postseason ERA is third-best out of 86 pitchers with at least 10 starts since earned runs became an official stat in 1913.
Simply put, Wheeler has been baseball’s best pitcher this decade, new school, old school, whatever. Hands down.
But if you still can’t get past how Wheeler’s numbers don’t compare to Bob Gibson, remember this: Gibson’s wins (251) and innings (3,884 1/3) don’t compare to Walter Johnson’s 417 wins and 5,914 1/3 innings, just like Johnson’s wins and innings don’t compare to Cy Young’s 511 wins and 7,356 innings.
The game is constantly changing.
But elite is elite.
And Wheeler is elite. A few more seasons like this, and it could be an easy decision for Hall of Fame voters.