BALTIMORE -- Dylan Carlson had a bit of a down season in 2024, but the 26-year-old outfielder flashed his potential early in his five-year big league career. So he’s a prime bounce-back candidate heading into ‘25.
That’s why the Orioles are taking a chance on the Elk Grove, Calif., native.
Baltimore signed Carlson to a one-year MLB deal on Monday, the team announced. The contract is worth $975,000, a source confirmed to MLB.com, with an additional $25,000 to come if Carlson gets at least 200 plate appearances with the O’s during the upcoming season.
A first-round Draft pick of the Cardinals in 2016 -- selected with a compensatory pick at No. 33 overall -- Carlson burst onto the scene once he reached St. Louis. He debuted with a 35-game stint during the pandemic-shortened ‘20 campaign, then built on that with his ‘21 rookie season.
The switch-hitting Carlson finished third in National League Rookie of the Year voting in 2021, hitting .266 with 31 doubles, 18 home runs, 65 RBIs and a .780 OPS over 149 games. All of those numbers are his career bests, as is the 3.1 bWAR he posted that season.
Carlson’s offensive production has dropped off each year since. He spent last offseason recovering from left ankle surgery, then opened the 2024 season on the injured list because of a left shoulder injury. He went on to hit .198 with a .515 OPS in 59 games for the Cardinals, who then traded Carlson to the Rays on July 30.
Following the Trade Deadline move, Carlson hit .219 with three homers and a .615 OPS in 37 games for Tampa Bay. He finished the season with -1.2 bWAR over 96 total games, the first time he posted a negative mark in his MLB career.
There are reasons to believe that Carlson -- who can play all three outfield positions -- could get back to being a solid player for Baltimore.
For one, Carlson doesn’t swing at a lot of bad pitches. He had a 24.8% chase rate last season (per Baseball Savant), and he ranked in the 74th percentile in that stat in both ‘21 and ‘22, the two most recent years in which he wasn’t dealing with an injury.
Health is another big factor for the lefty-throwing Carlson, whose arm strength didn’t rate nearly as well after returning from the left shoulder ailment last season. Baseball Savant had Carlson in the 63rd percentile in that metric in 2024, after he had never been lower than the 80th percentile over the previous three years.
If Carlson can avoid injuries, then his plate discipline and above-average arm could be nice fits in the Orioles’ lineup and outfield mix.
It’s not a guarantee that Carlson (who has three Minor League options remaining) will make it onto Baltimore’s 26-man Opening Day roster, though. The O’s starting outfield is expected to feature Tyler O’Neill, Cedric Mullins and Colton Cowser, with Heston Kjerstad also expected to be heavily in the mix (both in the outfield and at designated hitter).
The Orioles now have six outfielders on the 40-man roster, with Daz Cameron also included.
Baltimore could opt to go with only four outfielders (Cowser, Kjerstad, Mullins and O’Neill) and seven infielders. In that scenario, first baseman Ryan O’Hearn would likely serve as a backup in the corner-outfield spots, with middle infielder Jorge Mateo an option to also play center field.
If the O’s go with five outfielders -- opting to carry either Carlson or Cameron -- then they’d have to choose only six infielders from this crowded group of nine: Gunnar Henderson, Jackson Holliday, Mateo, Coby Mayo (MLB Pipeline's No. 14 overall prospect), Ryan Mountcastle, O’Hearn, Emmanuel Rivera, Ramón Urías and Jordan Westburg.
So there will be a lot for the Orioles to consider during Spring Training. But at the least, Carlson provides some needed outfield depth following the departure of Anthony Santander (who signed a five-year, $92.5 million deal with the Blue Jays), as the former Cardinal will have a chance to prove that he could be a valuable piece for the O’s in 2025.