This story was excerpted from Anthony DiComo's Mets Beat newsletter. To read the full newsletter, click here. And subscribe to get it regularly in your inbox.

According to FanGraphs calculations, the Mets (along with the Yankees, Astros and Dodgers) are one of four teams with a 100 percent chance of making the playoffs. That does not mean they have already clinched a berth, because they won’t for several weeks. It simply means that in 10,000 computer-simulated stretch runs, the Mets missed the playoffs precisely zero times.

In the real world, star players could still suffer injuries. The team’s performance could take a significant downtown. Citi Field could sink into Flushing Bay. In every one of those scenarios, the Mets will almost certainly still qualify for the postseason. So exhale; no 2007-style collapse is coming. (And before you fire off those angry emails, jinxes aren’t real.)

So what does the playoff landscape look like at this moment? While the NL East title remains an open question that we should come closer to answering after four games in Atlanta this week, the Mets have about a 90 percent chance both to win the division and to earn a first-round bye straight to the Division Series. They’re five games behind the Dodgers in the overall NL standings, making the No. 2 seed the Mets’ most likely berth.

There’s a popular argument that the second seed is actually most attractive, because the No. 3 seed must be a division champion, and the NL Central division winner will likely finish with a worse record than one or more Wild Card teams.

Confused?

Here’s a quick primer on how the revamped MLB postseason works:

• Six teams qualify from each league, with the top two receiving byes to the Division Series.
• The remaining division winner receives the No. 3 seed and hosts a best-of-three playoff against the worst Wild Card team.
• The other two Wild Card teams, Nos. 4 and 5, play a best-of-three playoff series for the right to play the top overall seed in the DS.
• There is no reseeding between rounds. The bracket is what the bracket is.

This would be the seeding arrangement if the season ended today:

Dodgers (79-34)
Mets (75-40)
Cardinals (63-51)
Braves (70-46)
Padres (65-52)
Phillies (63-51)

In this scenario, the Dodgers would play the winner of Braves-Padres, while the Mets would take on the winner of Cardinals-Phillies -- the two teams with the worst records in this hypothetical playoff pool.

So should the Mets not try to catch the Dodgers? I’m of the opinion that it can be treacherous to ease up in hopes of scoring an easier first-round matchup. Any playoff team is more than capable of beating any other, especially in a best-of-five DS. The Mets’ best course of action is to win as many games as they can down the stretch and see where it takes them.

So far, that strategy is working out just fine.

(For more on the new postseason format, check out this primer from my colleague Anthony Castrovince.)