This story was excerpted from Anthony DiComo’s Mets Beat newsletter. To read the full newsletter, click here. And subscribe to get it regularly in your inbox.
PORT ST. LUCIE, Fla. -- PECOTA, perhaps the best-known of an array of publicly available baseball projection systems, anticipates the Mets winning 91 games this season. That would place them second behind the Braves (93) in the National League East, but ahead of the Phillies (85).
Like all teams, the Mets have their own internal projection system, the results of which president of baseball operations David Stearns declined to share this week. One rival team’s system projects the Mets for around 87 wins, while others are almost certainly scattered in similar areas. These systems tend to vary, but not by significant amounts. As Stearns put things, it’s clear the NL East “is going to be really tight.”
“This is a really good division,” the baseball ops boss said this week in his first public comments of Spring Training. “The Braves and the Phillies are two really good teams. We think we’re a very good team. We’ve got our work cut out for us -- there’s no question about that.”
Games, of course, are not played inside the motherboard of a computer. Thank goodness for that. The Mets’ ultimate performance will depend upon a number of factors, including their ability to avoid injuries and the evolution of young players. Steve Cohen’s Mets will often fare better than projection systems expect them to, because they have the ability to add payroll midseason and be aggressive at the Trade Deadline. They have more avenues to plug holes than other teams do.
But as of this moment, at the outset of Spring Training, New York’s roster is mostly set. Sixty-eight players will be in camp by next week. Of that number, about 20 have guaranteed roster spots with another six or so up for grabs. If the Mets add additional players between now and the start of the regular season, it will only be at the margins.
“We’re always going to be involved in conversations,” Stearns said. “We also feel really good about the group we have that’s reporting right now, and I would anticipate by and large this is the team we’re going forward with.”
It’s a well-rounded group featuring one of the league’s best lineups, a strong back-end group of relievers and a rotation that, while lacking ceiling, offers plenty of depth. But the defending NL East champion Phillies also have an excellent lineup, a solid bullpen and one of the game’s best starting fives. The Braves, meanwhile, are getting Ronald Acuña Jr. and Spencer Strider back from major injuries. They made the playoffs last year despite missing four of their best players for significant chunks of the season.
“I feel like we can be better [than] them, but there’s nothing guaranteed,” Stearns said of his primary NL East rivals. “We’ve got to go out and perform. The Braves are going to win more games than they won last year. The Phillies are a really good team that’s going to be highly motivated again this year. So we know the battle we’re about to enter. I think we’re excited by it. But we know it’s going to take a very strong effort from our entire roster.”
This offseason, the Mets signed eight new players (including Juan Soto) to their 40-man roster, re-signed four others (including Pete Alonso and Sean Manaea), claimed two more off waivers and traded for Jose Siri. Most of their top performers from last year are back.
Once again on paper, PECOTA gives the Mets an 84.2 percent chance to make the playoffs. Fangraphs is less bullish at 64.4 percent.
The reality will eventually become clear on the field, between the lines, against rival clubs motivated to tear such projections to shreds.
“Where that ultimately ends up seven, eight months from now, is really tough for me to predict,” Stearns said. “But I like where our organization is. I like where our Major League team is. I’m excited for camp, and really excited to just get this going and watch baseball.”