This story was excerpted from Anthony DiComo’s Mets Beat newsletter. To read the full newsletter, click here. And subscribe to get it regularly in your inbox.
Spring Training has all but begun, with much of the Mets’ roster already filtering into Port St. Lucie, Fla., and the rest scheduled to arrive within the next 10 days. With the start of camp comes the usual spate of questions regarding the composition of the team, which this year will be colored by the World Baseball Classic.
Among those questions are three that will have significant impacts on the 2023 Mets’ success:
1. Will Brett Baty or Francisco Álvarez make the team?
Once Álvarez and Baty start bashing Grapefruit League homers, calls will intensify for the organization’s top two prospects to make the Opening Day roster. It’s easily the most intriguing spring plotline for a team with many roles sewn up before the start of camp.
Baty stands a reasonable chance of making the club, though he’ll need to beat out Eduardo Escobar, who’s making $9 million and produced a 1.042 OPS last September. The Mets won’t rush Baty, a player with only a week of experience at Triple-A Syracuse and 11 games in the big leagues who missed the end of last season recovering from thumb surgery. But if Baty proves he’s ready, the team could shift Escobar into a platoon/DH role, where there should be enough at-bats for him to continue contributing in significant ways. There’s a real pathway to playing time here for Baty -- if not on Opening Day, at least by midseason.
Álvarez’s situation is a bit trickier. Even if he crushes Grapefruit League pitching, Álvarez would probably benefit from some additional defensive seasoning at Syracuse. The Mets may be tempted to carry him as a DH, but at what cost to his development behind the plate? Remember, Álvarez only recently turned 21 years old, making him two years younger than Baty. For Mets officials, the temptation to carry him will be obvious, but his path to Opening Day appears narrower than his teammate’s.
2. How will Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander fare?
For the first time in years, the identity of New York’s Opening Day starter isn’t obvious months in advance. Last spring, the honor was set to go to Jacob deGrom over Scherzer before injuries prevented either from taking the mound. Manager Buck Showalter will likely defer to Scherzer this time around, since he’s been in New York for a year and Verlander has not. But Verlander is coming off a Cy Young season and was healthier than Scherzer in 2022. Might those factors play a role?
Opening Day aside, the offseason was full of rumblings about the relationship between Scherzer and Verlander, who were competitive teammates last decade with the Tigers. Mets officials are confident that the competitiveness of both pitchers will bring out the best of each. But how will the clubhouse power dynamic work? And on the mound, will both continue to thrive at advanced ages? The answers to these questions will be crucial to New York’s success.
3. How will Kodai Senga fare?
The Mets player with the widest range of potential outcomes is Senga, a Nippon Professional Baseball star who will be throwing his first stateside pitches once the Grapefruit League schedule begins. While it’s always foolhardy to place too much stock in spring performances, plenty of eyes will be on Senga to see how he reacts to Major League hitters. Senga is skipping the World Baseball Classic to focus more on his transition to MLB, which should help his cause as he tries to adapt to American baseballs, work schedules and living routines.
Of course, the real test won’t come until April when Senga begins playing in actual games.