NEW YORK -- Two innings after giving the Mets a much-needed glimmer of life with a two-run homer, Juan Soto again approached the plate Monday with a chance to put the Mets on top of the Braves. He battled Dylan Lee, a tough lefty reliever, for eight pitches before striking out to end the eighth. Shortly thereafter, the Mets lost their series opener at Citi Field, 3-2.
During this worst stretch of New York’s season, the team has dropped nine of 10, including six of seven to their most heated divisional rivals, the Braves and Phillies. They have averaged three runs per game over that stretch -- a remarkably low number for an offense of this caliber, and that in spite of an 11-run outburst on Saturday.
In six of their last eight games, the Mets have scored two or fewer runs.
Asked afterward about the offense’s ineptitude, manager Carlos Mendoza and various hitters identified three main problems:
1. Chase rate
Following Monday’s loss, Mendoza brought up his team’s chase rate multiple times.
“Especially when you’re chasing a lot,” Mendoza said, “it feels like during this stretch, we’re getting down early in games and then the at-bats are pretty much completely different.”
The data backs up his assessment. From the start of their losing streak on June 13 through the beginning of Monday’s play, the Mets chased 30 percent of pitches outside the strike zone, which ranked in the bottom third of Major League teams. Among the worst offenders were rookie Ronny Mauricio, who chased more than half the balls he saw out of the zone, and Pete Alonso, who has quietly slumped since a transcendent start to June.
The team’s lowest chase rate over the past 10 days belongs to Soto, but even he is not immune from this plague. After fouling off two tough Lee pitches in the eighth inning, Soto finally went fishing on a 3-2 slider below the strike zone.
“He made a great pitch,” Soto said. “He made really good pitches on the corners, and I just couldn’t come through.”
The Major League chase rate this season is right around 28 percent. During their losing streak, the only Mets below that mark are Soto, Brett Baty and Luis Torrens. It’s on everyone else to improve.
2. An unbalanced lineup
It’s no coincidence that when the Mets were thriving earlier this season, they received regular contributions from bottom-of-the-order hitters like Baty, Tyrone Taylor and Jeff McNeil, all of whom posted better-than-average wRC+ totals in May. That metric is an excellent measure of overall offensive production.
Since June 13, the only Mets with average or above-average wRC+ figures are Soto, Brandon Nimmo, Starling Marte and Francisco Lindor, all of whom typically bat in the top half of the lineup. Soto has been particularly hot; he’s driven home 26.7 percent of the Mets’ runs over that stretch. But the rest of the lineup has cratered around him.
On Monday, the Mets’ 4-8 hitters -- Alonso, McNeil, Taylor, Jared Young and Torrens -- finished 0-for-18 with five strikeouts.
“We’re relying so much on our top guys,” Mendoza said. “We have a lot of guys in the bottom of the lineup that are going through it right now. When that happens -- once you get past the fourth or fifth batter -- we’re having a hard time creating opportunities, creating chances for us. It’s hard to score like that.”
3. The Mets are seeing tough pitchers
During this difficult stretch, the Mets have faced (deep breath): Drew Rasmussen, who ranks seventh in the American League in ERA; Chris Sale, who was a National League Cy Young candidate before injuring his ribcage last week; Spencer Strider, a popular preseason pick for that award; Zack Wheeler, last year’s NL Cy Young runner-up; Jesús Luzardo, who ranks ninth among Major League pitchers in fWAR; and Spencer Schwellenbach (twice), who is now undefeated with a 2.06 ERA in five career starts against the Mets.
“We’re facing it feels like the top three from every team right now,” McNeil said.
A reprieve is at least in sight for the Mets, who will see rookie Didier Fuentes instead of the injured Sale on Wednesday, and who will miss Paul Skenes during their trip to Pittsburgh this weekend. Their schedule overall grows markedly easier in July.
But if the Mets want to break out of this funk sooner rather than later, they’re going to need to do more than simply wait for external factors to improve.
“Just keep trying, never give up,” Soto said. “That’s one of the things that’s going to make everything change.”