Revisiting Opening Day roster predictions

March 20th, 2019

LAKE BUENA VISTA, Fla. -- With Opening Day just a week away, the Braves are still debating whether to carry Adam Duvall and attempting to determine how to best fill the voids within their injury-depleted pitching staff.

While deciding whether to place its No. 7 prospect Bryse Wilson in the rotation or bullpen would create nothing more than a short-term consequence, the Braves are facing a $2 million decision with Duvall, the former All-Star who has not created confidence he has distanced himself from the woes that plagued him following last year’s trade to Atlanta.

“You’d like for the guy -- because he’s worked so hard -- to get results and not just have good at-bats,” Braves manager Brian Snitker said. “It seems like every ball he does [hit hard] is right at somebody. For his sanity, you want to get a good decision on it. It’s something we’re still talking about.”

Duvall went hitless in his first 10 at-bats and then enjoyed a two-homer game against the Marlins on March 3. Since then, he has gone 3-for-24 with no extra-base hits and is currently mired in a 0-for-14 skid. This was not what he needed after hitting .132 with one extra-base hit (a double) and a .344 OPS over 57 plate appearances for Atlanta last year.

If the Braves place Duvall on their Opening Day roster, his $2.875 million salary will be guaranteed. The team would be responsible for 45 days’ termination pay (approximately $690,000) if the outfielder is released before Opening Day.

A year ago at this time, the Braves were not counting on Anibal Sanchez or Ryan Flaherty, who provided different levels of value after being late-spring additions. Similar players may become available within the next few days. But for now, here is the latest stab at how Atlanta’s Opening Day roster might look:

Catcher (2): Brian McCann, Tyler Flowers
What changed: As it turns out, my prediction that Alex Jackson might land on the Opening Day roster was just an early urge to choose a bracket-busting upset. My feeling was the Braves would be better suited carrying an extra bat while using a four-man rotation through the season’s first four or five games. But given the mounting numbers of pitching-related injuries, it makes sense to instead carry an extra arm.

First base (1): Freddie Freeman
What changed: Nothing. Johan Camargo will carry a first base mitt. But despite saying he’ll be willing to occasionally take a day off this year, Freeman will not accept the chances to rest without a fight.

Second base (1): Ozzie Albies
What changed: Albies will bat in the leadoff spot against left-handed starters, but he has not yet created confidence he’s ready to be more consistent against right-handed starters. The switch-hitting second baseman has gone 4-for-24 and drawn two walks from the left side of the plate this spring. If this trend continues into the regular season, Camargo could draw some starts at second base when the Braves are facing a righty.

Third base (1): Josh Donaldson
What changed: The Braves have taken a cautious approach with the aggressive Donaldson, who is scheduled to compile a bunch of at-bats during a Minor League game on Thursday. The former AL MVP could be occasionally spelled by Camargo or Charlie Culberson during the regular season.

Shortstop (1): Dansby Swanson
What changed: Swanson’s surgically-repaired left wrist appears healthy and he has encouraged the Braves with the quality of plate appearances he’s produced over the past few weeks. Now he’ll attempt to rekindle the offensive promise he created before his wrist became an issue less than three full weeks into last season.

Outfield (4): Ronald Acuna Jr., Ender Inciarte, Nick Markakis, TBD
What changed: Camargo has provided indication he can handle the outfield if needed and Austin Riley will draw some outfield starts for Triple-A Gwinnett. This may account for the depth the Braves would need to comfortably release Duvall, who seemingly needs a strong finish to secure a roster spot. If the Braves cut ties, look for them to attempt to acquire an outfielder, who doesn’t fit on another team’s roster.

Utility (2): Johan Camargo and Charlie Culberson
What changed: Camargo will be available to be used everywhere other than center field and catcher. Given the state of the bullpen, it might not be out of the question to once again see Culberson everywhere, including back on the mound.

Starting pitcher (4): Sean Newcomb, Kyle Wright, Julio Teheran, Max Fried
What changed: With two off-days scheduled within the season’s first six days, the Braves can open the season with a four-man rotation. It looks like Mike Foltynewicz’s right elbow will force him to miss the season’s first three weeks. But Kevin Gausman, who was slowed by right shoulder discomfort, should be available by the time there’s a need to carry five starters. In the previous projection, I went the conservative route by putting Touki Toussaint in the mix. But Toussaint simply hasn’t been as impressive as Wright, Fried or Wilson -- who is a fit within either the rotation or bullpen.

Relief pitcher (9): Arodys Vizcaino, Jonny Venters, Sam Freeman, Jesse Biddle, Dan Winkler, Chad Sobotka, Shane Carle, Bryse Wilson, Wes Parsons
What changed: Over the past week we’ve learned A.J. Minter (left shoulder) may miss a couple weeks and Darren O’Day (right forearm) might not be available before April’s second half. One of the final decisions is whether to carry Wilson, Fried or Toussaint as a long reliever. Wilson will be a rotation asset at some point this season,but for now I’ll project him for the bullpen -- primarily because Fried lines up to fill what would be Gausman’s first turn. Luke Jackson is out of options and can declare for free agency once designated for assignment. But he simply hasn’t encouraged the Braves enough to take the chance of carrying him instead of Parsons, who hasn’t allowed a run this spring.

This is the third predicted version of the Braves’ Opening Day roster. The actual roster could be announced as early as Monday, to provide the players a chance to know who will be traveling to Philadelphia Tuesday to prepare for the March 28 season opener.

CATCHER
Brian McCann
Tyler Flowers

INFIELDERS
Freddie Freeman
Ozzie Albies
Dansby Swanson
Josh Donaldson

OUTFIELDERS
Ronald Acuña Jr.
Ender Inciarte
Nick Markakis
TBD

UTILITY PLAYERS
Charlie Culberson
Johan Camargo

STARTING PITCHERS
Sean Newcomb
Kyle Wright
Julio Teheran
Max Fried

RELIEF PITCHERS
Arodys Vizcaíno
Jonny Venters
Sam Freeman
Jesse Biddle
Chad Sobotka
Dan Winkler
Shane Carle
Bryse Wilson
Wes Parsons