Which of these big names will break HR drought first?

April 19th, 2024

In many areas of life, there’s nothing like the burden that gets removed when you knock your first one off the board. But a few big-name MLB hitters are still searching for that moment.

Entering play on Friday, there are 46 players with at least 50 plate appearances and no home runs on the season. Some of them are names you might expect, who aren’t particularly known to be power hitters -- think or . But many of them are established big bats who are still waiting to get on the board in the dinger column.

All it takes is one swing to change that -- as Ronald Acuña Jr. showed on Wednesday (even though he admittedly didn’t think the ball was going out when he hit it). Below, we break down nine of the most notable players who have yet to touch ‘em all this year, and what needs to change for their droughts to end.

, CF, SEA (78 PA)

Power profile: The transcendent young outfielder is the most surprising name to find himself on this list. Rodríguez has been an All-Star and Silver Slugger Award winner in each of his two prior MLB seasons, during which he hit a combined 60 home runs. 32 of those dingers came last season, when he also ranked 22nd in MLB with 57 barrels.

Closest call of 2024: The farthest Rodríguez has hit a ball this season was a 384-foot double to center field on April 17 off Cincinnati’s Andrew Abbott. However, even this ball would not have been a home run in any of the 30 MLB ballparks.

Let it fly: A lot has gone wrong for Rodríguez this season beyond a dearth of the long ball. For example, his OPS is currently .530, far off the .818 value he had a year ago. But as it pertains to seeking home runs specifically, a useful area of adjustment could be as simple as taking more hacks. He’s swung at 50.5% of pitches this season, compared to 53.9% a year ago. The increased selectiveness hasn’t led to higher efficiency, though, as his 33.8% whiff rate is well ahead of last year’s 28.2%.

, 3B, HOU (72 PA)

Power profile: Bregman’s peak as a home run hitter came in the 2019 season, when he had 41 homers en route to finishing second in AL MVP voting. But he’s still had at least 23 dingers in each of the past four seasons in which he played 100-plus games, most recently including 25 in 2023.

Closest call of 2024: On April 10, Bregman got all of an outside fastball from Seth Lugo, but the 406-foot shot hit the center-field wall in Kansas City before staying in for a double. It would’ve been a home run in 24 out of 30 MLB ballparks.

Let it fly: Bregman’s xSLG has dipped to a career-low .352 this season, which ranks in the 32nd percentile of MLB. What’s the solution? Avoiding getting under the ball would be a good start. In each of his first eight seasons, his average launch angle was somewhere in the mid-high teens. This year, it’s a career-high 23.6 degrees. As a result, his “sweet-spot rate” is a career-low 27.3%, causing his offensive statistics to take a steep downturn.

, PHI, RF (75 PA)

Power profile: Castellanos has hit at least 23 home runs in five of the past six full 162-game seasons, including a career-high 34 in 2021 with the Reds and 29 last year with the Phillies. He also had 46 barrels last season, tied for 37th-most in MLB.

Closest call of 2024: Castellanos’ longest hit of the season was also his most clutch one, as he knocked in Whit Merrifield for a walk-off single against the Pirates with a 361-foot liner to center field on April 13. This would not have been a home run in any MLB ballpark, though (and it’s worth noting that there’s a strong chance it would’ve been caught if the outfield was playing at normal depth).

Let it fly: Castellanos has struggled in a multitude of ways this season. But for the 32-year-old to turn his season around and become the player that helped the Phillies to strong playoff runs in the past two seasons, fixing his launch angle will be useful, as he’s been “under” the ball on 42.0% of batted balls this season, compared to 24.2% in 2023. Plate discipline has also been an issue this year, with a career-high 40.6% chase rate (fifth percentile of MLB), but he still managed to hit 29 homers despite a 41.0% chase rate a year ago.

, 1B, DET (86 PA)

Power profile: The first overall pick in the 2020 MLB Draft, Torkelson struggled as a rookie in 2022, but he broke out in a big way last season, leading the Tigers with 31 home runs. His 62 barrels were tied for the seventh-most in MLB last season, trailing only Shohei Ohtani, Aaron Judge and four Braves players.

Closest call of 2024: On April 16, Torkelson took a Jon Gray fastball deep to center field, but Texas’ Leody Taveras made a nice grab on the warning track after it traveled 411 feet. This would have been a home run in 18 of 30 MLB ballparks.

Let it fly: Torkelson’s whiff rate is slightly higher than it was a year ago, but an arguably bigger issue has been a lack of good contact. His average exit velocity has dropped from the 87th percentile last year to the 20th percentile this year, resulting in him having only one barrel this season (the flyout to Taveras). Similarly to Castellanos and Bregman, launch angle could be a source of a turnaround for Torkelson, as his average of 23.1 degrees is far ahead of last year’s 17.1. Consequently, he’s been “under” the ball on 44.4% of his batted balls, the third-highest rate in MLB (two spots ahead of Castellanos).

, 2B, NYY (86 PA)

Power profile: Torres has hit at least 24 home runs in four of his five career non-COVID seasons, with a career high of 38 in 2019. He finished with 25 a year ago, and his 123 homers from 2018-23 ranked fourth among second basemen (trailing only Marcus Semien, Ozzie Albies and Jose Altuve).

Closest call of 2024: On April 6, Torres took a high Kevin Gausman fastball deep to left-center field, and it traveled 398 feet before Daulton Varsho was able to catch it on the warning track. It would’ve been a home run in 22 of 30 ballparks, but fortunately for Torres, it did at least result in an RBI because the bases were loaded.

Let it fly: It might sound like hollow advice to tell someone to make contact more often, but that really has been the biggest change for Torres thus far this season. His plate discipline has only gotten better, as his chase rate of 18.5% is well below his 25.9% from a year ago. When he has made contact, he’s had a nearly identical average exit velocity to last season (89.5 mph in 2024, 89.7 in 2023). But Torres has whiffed on 23.8% of his swings at pitches in the strike zone this year, compared to 16.3% in 2023.

José Abreu, 1B, HOU (57 PA)

Power profile: Both Astros corner infielders find themselves without any home runs this season, with Abreu joining the aforementioned Bregman. Abreu, the 2020 AL MVP, has had five separate seasons with at least 30 homers, most recently when he hit 30 in 2021. As recently as 2022, he ranked in the 93rd percentile of MLB with a .486 xSLG.

Closest call of 2024: The farthest ball hit by Abreu this season was a 364-foot flyout to center field against the Rangers on April 13, which would not have been a home run in any MLB ballpark. For what it’s worth, his farthest base hit this season was a 338-foot double earlier in the same game.

Let it fly: Age has taken its toll on the 37-year-old Abreu, but his barrel rate was still a respectable 8.7% last season before dropping to 0.0% this year. If he’s able to mitigate the effects of aging later this season, finding a way to catch up fastballs will likely be necessary. He’s whiffed on 47.4% of swings against four-seamers this year, nearly double his 24.3% rate from a year ago.

, 1B, MIN (58 PA)

Power profile: Speaking of AL first basemen in their late 30s, the 38-year-old Santana is also still seeking his first dinger of the season. Santana has 301 career homers, with four separate seasons having at least 27. Last year, he had 23 across time with the Pirates and Brewers.

Closest call of 2024: On March 31 against the Royals, Santana pulled an inside Jordan Lyles fastball to right field, but it was caught on the warning track after traveling 377 feet. It would have been a home run in 13 of 30 ballparks.

Let it fly: Santana has an average exit velocity of 92.0 mph this season, which remarkably is his highest in the Statcast era (since 2015). His average launch angle of 14.2 degrees is also in line with his Statcast era average of 13.4. So what’s the issue? His whiff rate has skyrocketed from 22.1% in 2023 to 29.4% this season, with an especially troublesome 55.2% on breaking pitches -- tied for fourth-highest among 233 hitters with at least 25 such swings.

, DH, TEX (81 PA)
, 2B, DET (71 PA)

Power profile: Given that both players are rookies, it’s hard to say either one had much of a power profile compared to the aforementioned players. But Keith had 27 homers across 126 games in Double-A and Triple-A last season, while Langford had a combined 31 dingers in 2023 -- 21 in his final college season at Florida, and 10 more in 44 Minor League games.

Closest call of 2024: In his third MLB game against the Cubs, Langford cranked a two-run triple that traveled 404 feet, and would have been a home run in 14 of 30 ballparks. As for Keith, he’s also broken into the 400 club, hitting a 400-foot flyout to Minnesota’s Byron Buxton on April 13 which would’ve gotten out in eight of 30 parks.

Let it fly: For Langford, the most necessary adjustment will be learning to catch up to MLB speed, as he currently has a .167 slugging percentage with a 35.0% strikeout rate against four-seamers. As for Keith, he’ll need to get under the ball more often to knock one out. He’s “topped” the ball on 44.9% of his batted balls, well above MLB’s average of 32.8%.