Crawford's career year is unprecedented

August 27th, 2021

is having a great year. So great, in fact, he earned himself a two-year extension, and, if you ask Giants fans, MVP consideration.

But something about this season is legitimately historic. Crawford, at age 34, in his 11th big league season, has an OPS+ of 136. There have only been 416 individual AL or NL seasons (min. 100 games played) in which a player 34 years of age or older had an OPS+ above 130. There are an awful lot of repeat customers on that list, too -- when you pare down the duplicates, you end up with just 215 players (72 of whom are in the Hall of Fame). Out of more than 20,000 AL/NL players, that makes for a pretty exclusive club.

Even so, it gets more exclusive. Crawford’s career OPS+ coming into this season was 95, a little worse than league average. His previous career high was 114 in 2020 (for a traditional full-season figure, it would be 113 in 2015). Of those 215 players who have recorded 130 OPS+ seasons at 34 or older, Crawford would be the first to do it having never posted one of 115 or above in any previous season.

There is a caveat, of course -- there are other players who put up 130 OPS+ seasons for the first time in their mid-to-late 30s. Many of them spent their early years in the Negro Leagues or semi-pro ball, but a few were late bloomers, had dealt with injuries for the majority of their physical prime or played so long ago that their careers spanned across multiple leagues. But in terms of seasons that came after the player had amassed a few thousand plate appearances and established themselves as Major League hitters, Crawford is in uncharted territory.

So what has he figured out this late in the game? It doesn't make for a very exciting answer, but most of the improvement is down to gradual adjustments. For the third straight season, his average exit velocity has increased, adding 1.7 mph since 2018. While the improvement has been incremental, over the course of a full season and about 400 batted balls, that’s reflecting a major change. Both his barrel rate (13.3%) and his hard-hit rate (43.9%) have gone up roughly 10% over that period. So the 19 home runs through Aug. 27, unusual as they look against his career numbers, are legit. As is that .524 slugging percentage, which tops his previous career high of .465. Good luck is at play, but according to his .505 expected SLG, it’s not responsible for nearly as much as you’d expect.

This might not even be a one-and-done season for him, either. He’s improved or sustained much of what’s always made him valuable. He’s always been a fastball hitter, for one. But this season, he’s already amassed a +10 run value against four-seamers, and he's also tied for 10th on the swing and take leaderboard, which is run values assigned on a hitter's decision-making based on the outcome.

Many of the veterans who’ve seen resurgences in recent years have improved their overall results by changing their approach. Usually that means swinging more, and with more conviction, which causes ballooning whiff rates. Even Joey Votto, notorious for his patience, is working on the highest whiff rate of his career as he makes room for himself on the MVP ballot. But Crawford’s not swinging or chasing pitches any more than he ever has. His whiff rate is up from his career average, but only by about 1.9%.

All this to say that Crawford may have caught us by surprise, but we have every reason to believe what he’s doing is sustainable -- great news for the Giants and their playoff run.