This story was excerpted from Anthony DiComo’s Mets Beat newsletter. To read the full newsletter, click here. And subscribe to get it regularly in your inbox.
NEW YORK -- The Mets hit the halfway point of their season today, which seems as good a time as any to revisit our preseason predictions, thoughts and concerns. After all, what good is a season preview without some accountability?
Without further ado, here’s a look at what we thought in late March, and what has or hasn’t changed since that time.
The prediction: To succeed, the Mets will need their rotation to be better than in 2025
How’s it going? Er, not great. Last year, the Mets finished 18th in the Majors with a 4.13 ERA, which included an MLB-leading 2.78 mark through June 13 and a 5.31 mark after that. This year, the Mets have avoided those extremes while being more consistently substandard. Either due to injury or performance issues, nearly every rotation member has underperformed expectations in some way. The rotation entered this week’s homestand against the Cubs and Phillies ranked 27th in the Majors with a 4.74 ERA.
The Mets have, in effect, shown the same level of performance they did over the final four months last year, without the benefit of the two great months that came before.
What’s worse is that scant help seems likely from either the farm system or outside the organization. The only way this improves is if Freddy Peralta and Nolan McLean both consistently pitch like co-aces, and/or Christian Scott has a strong return from the injured list, and/or Kodai Senga reverts to his rookie form (if he’s even given the chance), and/or Sean Manaea turns the clock back to 2024. ... It’s a sizeable ask for even half those things to happen.
The prediction: To succeed, Mets will need Senga to pitch like an ace
How’s it going? About as poorly as it could. This is sort of a subset of the first topic, but Senga missed much of the season due to a back injury, then walked off the mound Tuesday to a chorus of boos, carrying a 10.08 ERA. He will be moved to the bullpen, and it’s even possible his Mets tenure is coming to an end. Not great.
The prediction: Soto will be the Mets’ MVP
How’s it going? We really went out on a limb with this one, didn’t we? Though he’s dealt with some injury trouble, Juan Soto leads the Mets in just about every major statistical category, with more than twice as many homers as anyone else and a full extra Win Above Replacement. He’s been the most productive Met, and it hasn’t been particularly close.
The prediction: McLean will be the Mets’ Cy Young
How’s it going? Better lately, though not exactly swimmingly. The early favorite here was clearly Clay Holmes, before his fibula fracture. In terms of bWAR, relievers Luke Weaver, Huascar Brazobán and Brooks Raley have all been more valuable than any non-Holmes starter. That’s largely because McLean has been so inconsistent -- at times even erratic. McLean does lead Mets pitchers in fWAR, innings and strikeouts, however, and is second in wins. He’s been better lately. He’s probably been the most valuable Mets pitcher, though his teammates have set the bar low.
The prediction: The Mets will play well enough to lock up the NL East by mid-September
How’s it going? Do I really need to answer this one? Mea culpa! At the time, it seemed reasonable given the strength of New York’s roster, the age of Philadelphia’s, and the state of Atlanta’s pitching staff. The reality is that the Phillies have rebounded from a tough start to turn the clock back to 2023, while Jeremy Hefner has transformed the Braves into one of MLB’s best staffs. The Mets, meanwhile, have been the Mets. They’re not going to win the division, let alone lock it up by mid-September. Their best hope at relevance is a late run up the NL Wild Card standings.