When the Red Sox won just two of their first nine games this year, it marked their worst start to a season since Ted Williams was flying F4U Corsairs with the U.S. Marine Corps.
This early disappointment in Boston is amplified as this is a team with expectations, a club returning a roster loaded with emerging young talent and star veterans after reaching the postseason last season.
With 11 percent of the season already elapsed, the 7-11 Red Sox find themselves tied with the Blue Jays in the AL East cellar entering play Friday. Boston's playoff chances have fallen from 64.9 percent on Opening Day at FanGraphs.com to 40.8 percent entering this weekend. While it's early, that's still a significant probability hit.
But don't raise a white flag quite yet in the Back Bay or on Beacon Hill. Time is an ally and there are reasons for optimism.
The bats are going to warm
The Red Sox rank 29th in the Majors with 12 home runs early this season. That's not going to continue.
The Red Sox have been unlucky. They rank seventh in the Majors in hard-hit percentage (42.4) entering play Friday. They are above average in terms of average exit velocity (89.8 mph) and barrels per batted ball (8.0). While they don't have an Aaron Judge or Shohei Ohtani in the middle of their lineup, Steamer's rest-of-season projections have eight different Red Sox hitters producing double-digit home runs the rest of the way.
Results will follow the underlying measures.
For instance, after encouraging power improvement last year, Ceddanne Rafaela continues to demonstrate growth, increasing the percentage of his swings with an ideal attack angle to 69 percent early this season, ranking sixth in baseball. Yet, he has one homer to show for it. Jarren Duran and Marcelo Mayer are too talented to keep scuffling, too. The bats will warm up.
Roman Anthony will break out
With his heavy ground-ball lean, Anthony likely needs a swing path adjustment to fully optimize his elite bat speed (91st percentile). He could also stand to be less passive at the plate, but his tools and plate discipline are too good to have him perform like the league-average offensive player he's been to date. There remains a lot of young Juan Soto and young Christian Yelich in his profile, and we already saw it last season when he debuted with a 140 wRC+.
He's going to benefit from better luck, and get more out of his double-digit barrel rate (11.1 percent). He's also making adjustments as his fast swing rate has improved from 52.5% last year to 54.8% this year, and his average attack angle improved each month last season and sits at 12 degrees this year -- which is ideal.
For Anthony, it's a matter of timing and aggression.
With just modest adjustments, he can be one of the 10 best bats in the American League sooner rather than later.
Better days are ahead for Garrett Crochet … they have to be
Entering the season, Crochet was regarded by some analysts as residing in the same tier as reigning Cy Young winners Paul Skenes and Tarik Skubal, MLB's uber aces.
But after a brutal start in Minneapolis this week following an uneven beginning to the season, Crochet will carry a 7.58 ERA and 1.58 WHIP into his next start.
Some have noted Crochet's velocity and stuff metrics have ticked down, shedding doubt on whether he can repeat as an elite performer. There is some fear about what exactly the Red Sox will get out of their ace -- or if he's a No. 1 going forward this campaign.
Let's start with his velocity. Crochet is averaging 95.9 mph with his four-seamer, which is a tick below his average last season but still elite for a left-handed starter. But Crochet also averaged 95.9 mph last April before gradually upticking throughout the season. April is the worst month (4.22 ERA) for his career. ERA estimators like SIERA (3.66) and xFIP (3.89) suggest he's deserved a better fate to date, too.
Crochet's stuff really isn't the issue. It's that his first-pitch strike and percentages of pitches within the zone are each down significantly from the last two years. Assuming this is not health related -- he has dropped his arm angle four ticks to 31 degrees, continuing a recent trend -- and rather tied to a small sample, Crochet will revert back to top-of-rotation form.
The young lefties are legit
Yes, there should be concern about Brayan Bello's stuff decline, and inconsistency in his young career. It's possible at age 36 that Sonny Gray is more of an innings-eater than a top-of-the rotation arm. Perhaps Ranger Suarez won't be quite as effective in the AL East. Even if the more veteran options after Crochet wind up providing more floor than ceiling in 2026, the club's young lefties are where the upside is exciting.
Connelly Early was excellent in his start Wednesday, looking very much like the arm who had a brilliant debut last season. In the first 39 innings of his career he owns a 21.5% K-BB% mark, an elite measure. If removing innings qualifications, that would rank 21st among all starting pitchers.
And Early isn't even the club's top left-handed pitching prospect. That's their No. 1-ranked prospect, 6-foot-6 lefty Payton Tolle, who boasts an electric fastball that is dominating Triple-A hitters. Tolle debuted last year and could soon be with the big league club. The Red Sox are middle of the back in Stuff+ (101), Location+ (98) and Pitching+ (99) early this season, but the young lefties could change that along with Crochet returning to form.
What the Red Sox could use from all their starting arms regardless of their promise or veteran status is more innings. Their rotation is averaging just 4.88 innings per start. That's a problem, as their middle relief has been a suspect bridge to the back end of the bullpen, and building a stronger ‘pen -- especially with Justin Slaten (right oblique) and Johan Oviedo (right elbow) out -- might require external help.
It will not be easy to climb to the top of this division from the cellar, but their fortunes are going to improve. The path will ease, too, as they've played twice as many games on the road as at Fenway. They've dug a hole, suffered from some bad luck like a 1-4 record in one-run games, but there's still time to climb out and reasons to believe they can.