What's gone wrong for Alvarado and what can Phillies do to fix it?

With the Trade Deadline rapidly approaching and the Phillies (49-39) just one victory away from becoming the fifth team to 50 wins, there’s little doubt Philadelphia will be a major player in adding to a club gearing towards October.

But that doesn’t mean all the Phillies’ aid will come externally. There are pieces with track records of filling one of the club’s biggest needs -- high-leverage relievers -- already in the clubhouse.

That’s where José Alvarado comes into play. The 31-year-old left-handed entered the season as one of the club’s most trusted late-inning arms, but a career-worst 6.10 ERA has diminished his role of bridging the gap between starters and closer Jhoan Duran.

The same can be said for Kyle Backus (5.93 ERA), Chase Shugart (4.97 ERA) and Tanner Banks (5.86 ERA), the latter two getting optioned in the past few weeks while the Phillies give looks to Lou Trivino III (14.40 ERA in 5 IP) and Seth Johnson (6.10 ERA in 10 1/3 IP) in the meantime with Brad Keller, who has also been inconsistent, on the injured list.

Orion Kerkering, Jonathan Bowlan and Tim Mayza have been solid as setup men, but Philadelphia needs one of its struggling left-handed relievers to step up in the second half to not only make a run at the NL East, but go deep in the postseason.

There’s reason to believe Alvarado can fit that bill. The 10-year veteran, who had his best season with the Phillies in 2023 (1.74 ERA across 42 appearances), has been better than his baseline numbers suggest.

Alvarado is setting, or on pace to set, career worst marks in opponents’ batting average (.311), WHIP (1.68), earned runs (21), hits (41) and hit batters (six). But his underlying metrics suggest something much different.

The lefty’s expected ERA (3.82) falls well below his actual mark, and the same can be said for expected batting average against (.242). That’s because Alvarado is limiting his opponents to a 28.9 hard-hit percentage, which ranks in the 96th percentile in baseball. Batters are barreling his stuff just 4.5% of the time (87th percentile) with an exit velo in the 79th percentile (87.2 mph).

Alvarado’s 29.7% whiff rate is one of the highest in the Majors (81st percentile), and he’s getting batters to chase at a filthy rate (36.6%, 95th percentile).

So, what gives?

Well, Alvarado throws just two pitches 97% of the time, a sinker and cutter. That’s not atypical of power relievers, but what is off his where his cutter is ending up -- and it’s not in the zone.

Compared to past seasons, Alvarado is simply not landing the pitch in the zone for called strikes at the same frequency as he once did. In fact, Alvarado’s 42.8% overall zone percentage is the lowest of his career. But his cutter is his putaway pitch, designed to make opponents chase when ahead in counts. However, if batters don’t chase, that leaves only one option -- a sinker in the zone.

That could explain why hitters are batting .351 against his sinker. And why he threw his cutter more times during Thursday’s outing (14) than the sinker (10), which he typically throws twice as much (62.3% usage this season). Despite throwing 177 more sinkers than cutters this season, though, and just a .250 batting average on the pitch, two of his three homers allowed have come off the cutter.

“ … In general, I think his stuff is good. That subject came up before, and he’s changed his mix a little bit. He’s been pretty effective since then,” interim manager Don Mattingly said after Alvarado allowed two runs in Thursday’s 6-1 loss. “This may be the first time he’s given up a run since we talked about it. So, in general, he’s throwing the ball fine.”

Alvarado struck out seven over four scoreless appearances before Thursday’s outing, a sign that maybe he’s figured something out. But he still finished June with a 5.91 ERA across 11 games, which was higher than the 4.00 mark he put up in April and May.

The Phillies will need that to improve, whether they add a high-leverage reliever at the Trade Deadline or not, for a bullpen that’s thrown the fourth-most innings (82 IP) in the 20 games since June 12. Alvarado is a proven veteran with above-average stuff, but results have to start going Alvarado’s way in the final 74 games if he’s going to be a reliable option when it matters most.