Juan Soto is going to be Juan Soto. What happens around him is anyone’s guess -- and that’s what makes the Mets’ outfield so interesting.
New York’s outfield looks entirely different than it did last year. Brandon Nimmo is gone, Soto has shifted from right field to left, and the club has two new starters: trade acquisition Luis Robert Jr. in center field and top prospect Carson Benge in right.
The Mets’ outfield certainly made its presence felt on Opening Day, as Soto, Robert and Benge combined to go 5-for-11 with a homer, four walks, four RBIs and four runs scored in the Mets’ 11-7 win over Paul Skenes and the Pirates.
- Soto: 2-for-4, 1 BB, 1 RBI, 1 R
- Robert: 2-for-4, 1 BB, 2 RBI, 1 R
- Benge: 1-for-3, 1 HR, 2 BB, 1 RBI, 2 R
Of course, the questions that were there before the season opener haven't gone away after one game. Benge (MLB Pipeline's No. 16 overall prospect) has only 131 games of Minor League experience, including just 24 games at Triple-A. And Robert was worth only 1.9 WAR (per FanGraphs) over 210 games combined over the past two years while continuing to deal with the injury problems and contact issues that have dogged him for much of his career.
Their outfield has a lot more uncertainty than it would have if they kept Nimmo or were able to reel in Kyle Tucker. There’s a possibility this all goes sideways.
But there’s also a real chance this turns into the best outfield in baseball. Here’s the path.
Soto: The MVP anchor
Soto is determined to take the MVP Award from Shohei Ohtani. He made that clear in February, and we’ve already looked at what he needs to do to accomplish that goal.
But even if Soto is merely as good as he was in the first year of his 15-year, $765 million deal with the Mets in 2025, when he slashed .263/.396/.525 with 43 homers, 38 steals and 5.8 WAR, he’ll be a strong foundation for this Mets outfield.
FanGraphs projects Soto for 6.1 WAR, tied for fourth best among position players and second among outfielders behind Aaron Judge. That’s right in line with his average over the past five years (6.2 WAR), though he’s also shown a much higher ceiling than that with 8.3 WAR in 2024.
Robert: The rebound candidate
Robert was once ranked as MLB Pipeline’s No. 3 prospect. Considered to be a potential five-tool stud, he arrived in the Majors amid considerable hype during the shortened 2020 season. After six seasons with the White Sox, it’s safe to say he’s fallen short of those enormous expectations.
Part of the problem is that he’s spent so much time on the injured list, missing nearly 300 games since the beginning of 2021. However, he’s also shown some serious flaws at the plate while slashing just .223/.288/.372 in 210 games over the past two years.
That said, it’s hard to ignore the eye-opening numbers he recorded when he was mostly healthy in 2023: 38 homers, 20 steals, an .857 OPS and 4.9 WAR over 145 games.
The tools are still there, too: Robert ranked in the 92nd percentile in bat speed, the 90th percentile in sprint speed and the 93rd percentile in Outs Above Average last year.
If a change of scenery helps him return to his 2023 heights, the Mets are going to have an elite outfield no matter what happens in right field.
Benge: The NL ROY contender
Benge is an unknown quantity. But the Mets’ dreams for what he might become are rooted in reality.
The Padres entered the 2024 season facing similar uncertainty in their outfield beyond superstar Fernando Tatis Jr. Coincidentally, Soto was a big reason why -- San Diego had traded him to the Yankees the previous winter.
However, the Friars ended up having one of the best outfields in the game, in part because they struck gold with Jackson Merrill, a highly touted prospect who earned a starting job with an excellent spring. Merrill went on to produce 5.3 WAR in 2024, finishing second in the NL Rookie of the Year race behind Skenes.
Can Benge do for New York what Merrill did for San Diego? The Mets don’t have to squint too hard to see it. The two are eerily similar, from their lefty swings to their physical frames to their scouting profiles.
The Mets entered the regular season with the eighth-highest projected outfield fWAR in MLB at 9.7, and that's with Robert projected for 2.3 WAR and Benge for just 0.7 WAR. If either player approaches his ceiling, that number looks very different.
The potential is there. Now, it's up to Robert and Benge to give Soto some help on the grass. The Mets have to like what they saw on Day 1.