At this time of year, focus inevitably lands on the final stages of the playoff chases, specifically on which teams will make it to the postseason and which ones won't. That’s perfectly natural: Just getting into the playoffs is a major achievement, and the difference between a postseason series and a long cold winter is a big one.
But with all apologies to, say, the 2023 Diamondbacks -- a team that finished 84-78, just barely reached October and then got hot enough to make it all the way to the World Series -- most years, the teams at the bottom of the playoff seeding chart matter a lot less than the teams at the top. It’s important who ends up No. 6 in the National League and the American League. But who ends up Nos. 1 and 2 ... that’s typically where champions come from.
Which is why we should probably be focusing more on the races for those top-two seeds than we are currently. There’s quite a race for both of the top seeds shaping up in both leagues, and these are, of course, vital for bye purposes. It’s the difference between sweating out a best-of-three Wild Card Series or setting up your rotation and resting until you find out who has earned the opportunity to face you.
Here’s a look at how the races for those top-two seeds are shaping up, with Labor Day weekend in the rearview mirror and just less than three weeks to go in the regular season. (It’s important to note here that, regardless of record, only division champions can secure a top-two, or even a top-three seed. Wild Card teams can be no higher than No. 4.)
NATIONAL LEAGUE
- Current top two: Brewers (89-56, .614), Dodgers (87-57, .604)
- Top challenger: Braves (85-59, .590)
- Dark horse: Phillies (81-63, .563)
The Brewers have the upper hand for the top overall seed, for several reasons. They’re only one game up on the Dodgers in the loss column, but they have two more wins, and they won the season series over the Dodgers, 4-3, giving them a potential tiebreaker. They’re also 3 1/2 games up on the Braves, but Atlanta is in position to hold that tiebreaker by virtue of having a better division record. (The teams tied head-to-head, 3-3, this season.) There is still time for that to change, but either way, it’s all in the Brewers’ hands: They’d have to fall behind both the Dodgers and Braves to lose their first-round bye and a spot in the NL Division Series.
The No. 2 spot is a little more intriguing. The Braves are only two games behind the Dodgers and have the tiebreaker thanks to winning five out of six against the two-time defending champs. The downside for the Braves is that they have an extremely difficult schedule remaining, with their next four series against the Rays, Phillies, Cubs and Astros. Unlike the Dodgers, they also have to mind their flank: The Phillies’ 1-0 win over the Braves on Labor Day pulled them back within four games in the NL East division race, with three more games head-to-head (at Truist Park) this coming weekend. Though if Atlanta loses enough that Philadelphia can get close, it might be tough to keep pace with L.A. anyway.
It should be said, though, that August is the first month this season that the Dodgers haven’t had a winning record: If you’re going to make a run at them, now is the time. L.A. did, don’t forget, have to win a Wild Card Series last season to make the NLDS. Their series against the Reds was over so quickly that it might have slipped your mind, but with an older team that’s now unlikely to have Shohei Ohtani on the mound, the Dodgers would obviously rather avoid that fate this time.
AMERICAN LEAGUE
- Current top two: Rays (85-58, .594), White Sox (75-68, .524)
- Top challengers: Yankees (81-62, .566), Astros (73-71, .507), Guardians (73-72, .503), Rangers (71-73, .493)
- Dark horse: Red Sox (80-65, .552)
All right, so the AL is both simpler and more complicated. The simple part is that the first seed is straightforward. Barring something historically strange, the No. 1 seed will be whatever team wins the AL East. The Rays are the obvious favorite, with a four-game lead over the Yankees, but as you might have heard, there is quite a massive four-game series in the Bronx next week that could turn those standings upside down quickly. (Plus, Aaron Judge is back now.)
And even though the Red Sox are six games behind the Rays (seven in the loss column), you can’t count them out: They’ve won five in a row and have some friendly games coming up against the Angels and the Royals. Boston also has three games left against Tampa Bay, which will decide the teams’ season series and therefore their tiebreaker.
Either way, whichever team wins that division will get the No. 1 seed. The other two are locked in at Nos. 4 and 5 ... and locked into playing each other in the Wild Card Series.
But after that? Wow. Put it this way: It is not currently impossible -- or even absurdly unlikely -- that the Rangers, a team that came out of Labor Day at two games under .500, get a first-round bye. That’s what happens when the division leaders on that date are only seven games over .500 (the White Sox in the AL Central) and two games over (the Astros in the AL West).
Chicago has the clear inside track for that No. 2 spot, if only because it only has three games left against a team with a winning record (and that’s three key ones against the Guardians in a week) and close with three at home against the Rockies. But someone will win the AL West, and none of those teams are so far behind the White Sox (or the Guardians, the team chasing them in the AL Central) that they couldn’t end up in that No. 2 spot if they got hot.
In just less than three weeks (Sept. 29), the Wild Card Series will begin, and those games will be high-stress, very high-leverage situations: Your season can end in the span of hours if you are not careful. All these teams have a chance to avoid such a fate. It’s worth watching the standings every night -- the top of the standings -- to find out which will do so.