The Trade Deadline is supposed to be clarifying. Sure, it’s not entirely accurate to classify every team as either “buyers” or “sellers”; it’s far more complicated and less binary than that. But you’d like to get a sense of what teams consider themselves, at least for the season that we are all currently watching. Trade away your best starting pitcher? Your lineup stalwart? Your key bullpen arm? OK: You’re focusing more on the future than the present. Got it. Understood. Clear.
Except, uh, this year … it is not working out that way. The American League Wild Card race in particular is an absolute madhouse: The Orioles, Rangers and Tigers are tied for the third and final spot, and four other teams are no more than two games behind them. The National League isn’t that much simpler. The Phillies have a one-game lead over the Padres for the second Wild Card spot, and three other clubs within three games of San Diego.
One thing that stands out about this group of contenders is that five of them did more at the Deadline to build for the future than they did to make a charge at this year’s postseason. And yet, they still might make it anyway.
Here’s a look at those five teams: What they did at the Deadline, what they’re looking like right now, and whether they can find their way, improbably, into the postseason. (Teams are listed in order of standing.)
Orioles (61-64)
Standings: Tied for 3rd AL Wild Card
Deadline departures: C Adley Rutschman, OF Taylor Ward, RHP Dean Kremer, RHP Tyler Wells, C Jake Rogers
Can you believe the Orioles are in this position? After all those years of building and rebuilding, this was supposed to be the year all those young players matured and exploded for a team that, to remind you, has still not won a postseason game since Nelson Cruz (who is now 46 years old) was their DH. Not only did it not work out that way, but at the Deadline the Orioles traded away Rutschman, the No. 1 overall Draft pick who had been the public face of that rebuild. (And they traded him to the hated Red Sox, no less.) I mean, ouch.
And yet! After winning three straight over the Rays at the Trop this weekend and finally looking like the team their fans had been promised for the first time all year, the Orioles are, in fact, in playoff position. Their starting pitching has been their surprising strength, which is why it’s so encouraging that Gunnar Henderson and Jackson Holliday are finally coming around with the bat.
The Orioles have a gauntlet in the next week or so, with series against three winning teams (the Yankees, Rays and Cardinals), but then they get the A’s and Rockies, albeit both on the road in environments that test pitching staffs. If they can go .500 against the Yanks, Rays and Cards, they may well still be in a Wild Card spot by Labor Day. Amazing.
Blue Jays (61-65)
Standings: Half a game out of last AL Wild Card spot
Deadline departures: RHP Kevin Gausman, OF Daulton Varsho, RHP Jeff Hoffman, LHP Adam Macko
The Blue Jays have to be incredibly grateful to be in this spot. After the torturous way they lost the World Series last year, simply rolling over and playing out the string would have been particularly depressing. Fortunately for them, they just went 11-6 during a brutal 17-day stretch without a day off, and they’ve won six series in a row (if you don’t count a one-game rain makeup loss against the Cubs), including two at home last week against division rivals the Red Sox and the Yankees.
It’s important to note here that what the Blue Jays did was not an all-out sell. Yes, they traded away pending free agents in Gausman and Varsho, plus a key reliever in Hoffman, but they also acquired a pair of controllable big league starters in the Angels’ José Soriano and the Astros’ Spencer Arrighetti. Utilityman Josh Smith came over for Macko, while center fielder Brett Bateman (acquired for Gausman) took over for Varsho in center. Toronto is winning games with pitching, with Soriano posting a 1.69 ERA in his first two starts, Dylan Cease making a serious run at the AL Cy Young Award and the bullpen improving. (Arrighetti is on a rehab assignment.)
It’s not going to be easy with Vladimir Guerrero Jr. on the concussion IL, but all told, considering the season he has had, perhaps a reset will be good for them. All Blue Jays fans are hoping for is another chance. They still might just get one.
Tigers (61-64)
Standings: Tied for 3rd AL Wild Card
Deadline departures: LHP Tarik Skubal, RHP Casey Mize
Remember that just two years ago, the Tigers made a playoff run after selling at the Deadline, sending a top starting pitcher, Jack Flaherty, to the Dodgers. The situation is not the same this time. But still: Imagine where the Tigers would be if they had Skubal and Mize.
A little bloom went off the Tigers’ rose this weekend with the home sweep at the hands of the White Sox, but one game out is one game out: They’re right in the thick of this. Their schedule isn’t that daunting, but it would help if All-Star catcher Dillon Dingler, who had been putting together a stealthy, down-ballot MVP case, could pull out of his current 2-for-38 (entering Monday) slump.
But somehow, the Tigers are still in the race. It’s that kind of year.
Marlins (64-62)
Standings: 3 games out of last NL Wild Card spot
Deadline departures: C Liam Hicks, RHP Lake Bachar, LHP Braxton Garrett, 1B Connor Norby
In the wake of their Deadline trades, the Marlins’ farm system is now in the top 10 in baseball for the first time in more than four years. But the big league club also has kept its head above water in the Wild Card race despite that 12-game losing streak in July that persuaded the front office to sell in the first place.
The Marlins have been helped out considerably by a weaker schedule of late -- they’ve won three straight series, all coming against teams with losing records -- and that’s about to get a lot tougher. They began a three-game series in Philadelphia on Monday with a loss, and it gets more grueling in September: From Sept. 4 on, their only series against a team with a losing record is three games at home against the Mets.
The Marlins’ rotation gives them a chance nearly every night, but even if the team ends up under .500 this year (which, with that schedule, seems very possible), the Marlins have staked their claim as a team to watch out for over the next half-decade, at least.
Cardinals (64-62)
Standings: 3 games out of last NL Wild Card spot
Deadline departures: RHP Dustin May, OF Lars Nootbaar, LHP JoJo Romero
It’s impossible to argue with the returns the Cardinals got by trading the three players above, as they’re now the No. 4, 11, 22 and 24 prospects in what MLB Pipeline calls the fourth-best farm system in baseball -- but that’s still a lot to give up. (And Nootbaar went to the D-backs -- one of the teams St. Louis is chasing in the Wild Card race.)
Fortunately, the Cardinals had some ready replacements, at least for May and Nootbaar. Hunter Dobbins has been perfectly fine in May’s rotation spot, and, well, you might have heard a little bit about the guy who just took Nootbaar’s spot in left field: He hit three homers in the first three at-bats of his career over the weekend.
The Cardinals’ focus remains unquestionably on the future, but they have now won four series in a row (including series against the Yankees, Phillies and Cubs) and have the feel of a young team that doesn’t know or care this is supposed to be a year or two too early. They’ve got a key series in Philadelphia this coming weekend, and they have, remarkably, given themselves a puncher’s chance.