The top projected players to change teams this offseason (so far)

January 5th, 2026

Some big names remain on this offseason’s free-agent market, and plenty of notable trade candidates have stayed put thus far.

But there have been a number of difference makers who already have switched addresses since the Hot Stove was first lit. Below is a look at the top 18 players who will be wearing a different uniform to start 2026 than they did to end ‘25. These rankings are based solely on expected 2026 Wins Above Replacement (WAR), per FanGraphs’ Steamer projections, as of Jan. 4.

Note: This doesn't count players who re-signed with the same team, such as Kyle Schwarber with the Phillies, Josh Naylor with the Mariners or Michael King with the Padres. Nor does it count players who did not appear in the Majors in 2025, namely players arriving from foreign leagues, such as Munetaka Murakami with the White Sox or Cody Ponce with the Blue Jays.

It’s also worth noting that, because relievers tend not to stack up well on a WAR basis, none make this list, even though many notable bullpen arms have changed teams, including Edwin Díaz (Mets to Dodgers), Robert Suarez (Padres to Braves), Devin Williams (Yankees to Mets), Kenley Jansen (Angels to Tigers), Tyler Rogers (Mets to Blue Jays), Matt Strahm (Phillies to Royals), Luke Weaver (Yankees to Mets), Brad Keller (Cubs to Phillies) and Ryan Helsley (Mets to Orioles).

1. SP (Cardinals to Red Sox)
Projected WAR: 3.9

Perhaps it’s surprising to see a 36-year-old pitcher who posted a 4.28 ERA in 2025 atop this list. But more advanced metrics, such as FIP and expected ERA, were higher on Gray’s 2025 performance. The right-hander still misses bats, racks up strikeouts and limits walks, and he was a much-needed trade acquisition for the Red Sox, who can slide him into the No. 2 spot in their rotation behind Garrett Crochet. Steamer sees Gray providing Boston with a 3.68 ERA and 190 strikeouts in 181 innings pitched in 2026.

2. SP (Padres to Blue Jays)
Projected WAR: 3.8

After five consecutive 200-strikeout seasons, Cease is projected to have 216 K’s in his first season with the Blue Jays. That would rank third in the American League, behind only Tarik Skubal (242) and Crochet (239). His 3.60 projected ERA is also much more in line with his 2025 xERA (3.46) than his inflated 4.55 ERA. Cease is the centerpiece of what has been a busy offseason of additions for the Blue Jays, who have also added pitchers Cody Ponce and Tyler Rogers on three-year deals in free agency.

3. 2B (Rangers to Mets)
Projected WAR: 3.1

Semien has amassed at least 2.0 fWAR in each of the past seven full seasons, thanks in large part to his defense. His bat is expected to rebound after a .669 OPS in 2025 -- Steamer projects Semien for a .241/.314/.400 slash line -- but his glove will be a large part of his value. Semien is also projected for 22 home runs, which would be a welcome return to form after he hit just 15 last season.

4. 1B (Mets to Orioles)
Projected WAR: 2.7

Alonso has hit at least 34 home runs in each of the past five seasons, and Steamer projects him to keep up his power hitting with 35 dingers in 2026 -- third most in the AL behind Aaron Judge (43) and Cal Raleigh (38). Alonso has the highest projected slugging percentage of any Orioles batter at .493, just beating out Gunnar Henderson’s .488 mark, and he’s projected to drive in 101 runs from the heart of Baltimore’s talented lineup.

5. OF (Mets to Rangers)
Projected WAR: 2.6

Nimmo averaged 3.7 fWAR per season from 2021-25, cementing himself as a highly productive player thanks in large part to his ability to get on base. In his first year with the Rangers after being traded for Semien, he is projected for a .256/.336/.428 slash line. Nimmo’s 2.6 WAR projection is the third highest among Rangers position players, trailing only Corey Seager (3.9) and Wyatt Langford (3.4).

6. SP (Rangers to D-backs)
Projected WAR: 2.5

Kelly returned to Arizona on a two-year, $40 million contract after a 2025 Trade Deadline deal sent him to Texas. With Zac Gallen still a free agent, Kelly is the D-backs’ top projected pitcher in 2026, well ahead of Brandon Pfaadt (1.9 projected WAR). Steamer projects Kelly to pitch a team-high 185 innings with a 4.15 ERA, which would be his highest ERA since 2021 (4.44).

7. SP (Orioles to Angels)
Projected WAR: 2.3

Rodriguez hasn’t pitched since July 31, 2024, when an elbow injury knocked him out for the season and lingered all the way through 2025. Steamer projects him to throw just 129 innings for his new club -- which would be a career high for the right-hander -- but Rodriguez’s projected 3.86 ERA would be the second best among Angels starting pitchers, behind only José Soriano (3.66).

8. OF (Angels to Orioles)
Projected WAR: 2.1

Right below Rodriguez on this list is the man he was traded for. Ward set new career highs in 2025 with 36 home runs and 103 RBIs, but Steamer expects his numbers to come back down (to 24 homers and 75 RBIs) in 2026. Ward is projected for a .244/.328/.437 batting line and a 115 wRC+ that would tie Adley Rutschman for fourth highest on the Orioles. Between him and Alonso, Baltimore has added considerable right-handed power ahead of 2026.

9. SP (Rays to Orioles)
Projected WAR: 2.0

The Orioles paid a premium to acquire Baz, landing the righty in exchange for four prospects and a 2026 Competitive Balance Round A Draft pick. Last season, Baz appeared to put a lengthy injury history behind him, making 31 starts and pitching to a 4.87 ERA. Steamer sees himself building off that success in 2026, projecting Baz for 29 starts and a 4.27 ERA. Only Trevor Rogers is projected to throw more innings than Baz (168 1/3) on the O’s staff.

10-T. 2B (Rays to Pirates)
Projected WAR: 1.8

Lowe figures to boost a Pirates’ lineup that struggled to score runs last season. Steamer expects the 31-year-old to take a bit of a step backwards in 2026, projecting Lowe to hit 22 home runs with a 106 wRC+ – compared to the 31-homer season he posted with the Rays in ‘25. Still, Lowe’s bat should stand out in Pittsburgh: He’s projected to hit more home runs and have a higher slugging percentage (.442) than every other Pirate.

10-T. DH (Mariners to Mets)
Projected WAR: 1.8

A resurgent 2025 season saw Polanco produce 2.6 fWAR, his highest mark since reaching the 4-fWAR threshold in 2021. He set a new single-season career high with a 132 wRC+, smashing 26 home runs and drastically cutting his strikeout rate. Steamer forecasts Polanco to post a 116 wRC+ next season, the fourth-highest projected wRC+ among Mets hitters.

10-T. 2B (Mets to Athletics)
Projected WAR: 1.8

McNeil was one of many longtime Mets that found new homes this offseason. The veteran had something of a resurgent 2025 season, posting his best OPS (.746) since 2022 while walking at a career-best 10.6 percent clip. He also flashed a new ability to handle center-field duties (34 games) in addition to time at second base, both corner outfield positions and even a few games at first base.

13. SP (Red Sox to Rays)
Projected WAR: 1.7

Matz had an excellent 2025 season as a full-time reliever for the first time, posting a 3.05 ERA and 1.1 WAR across 76 2/3 innings. That experiment in the bullpen might be short-lived, however, as the Rays signed him to a two-year deal and could plug him into the rotation, especially after the Baz trade.

14. SP (Pirates to Astros)
Projected WAR: 1.6

Included in the three-team trade that sent Lowe to the Pirates, Burrows found his way to an Astros rotation seeking a young and talented cost-controlled starter. Burrows was quite good in his first full MLB season with the Pirates in 2025, posting a 3.94 ERA with 97 strikeouts in 96 innings. The 26-year-old figures to play a big role for Houston in 2026 as the Astros try to return to the playoffs.

15-T. 1B (Cardinals to Red Sox)
Projected WAR: 1.5

Contreras has cleared the 2.5-fWAR threshold for five consecutive seasons, including all three years that he spent in St. Louis. That’s partially because of his injury history: Contreras has spent time on the injured list in each of the past five seasons. Still, it’s easy to see the upside here, especially with Contreras playing 135 games last season, his most since 2018. Steamer also projects him to lead the Red Sox with 19 home runs.

15-T. SP (Red Sox to Cardinals)
Projected WAR: 1.5

From a health perspective, May’s 2025 season was a rousing success, as he tossed a career high 132 1/3 innings (he had never thrown more than 56 innings in a season). May, however, struggled to the tune of a 4.96 ERA and 5.20 expected ERA, which largely stemmed from poor performance on his fastballs -- hitters slugged .515 against May’s heaters. Still just 28 years old, May is young enough that he could still put it all together.

15-T. SP (Cubs to D-backs)
Projected WAR: 1.5

Soroka posted a 4.52 ERA in 89 2/3 innings in 2025 with the Nationals and Cubs, the most innings he’d thrown in a season since 2019 (174 2/3 innings). After looking like a potential relief option, Soroka mostly pitched in the rotation in ‘25 and is expected to do so again with the D-backs in 2026.

15-T. SP (Rangers to Giants)
Projected WAR: 1.5

Injuries limited Mahle to just 16 starts and 86 2/3 innings in 2025 but the right-hander was excellent when he was available. Among pitchers with at least 80 innings pitched, Mahle’s 2.18 ERA ranked fourth, only trailing his teammate Nathan Eovaldi, Trevor Rogers and Paul Skenes. The 31-year-old will look to continue his success in a larger sample with the Giants in 2026.

Honorable mentions: OF (Mets to Rays, 1.2 WAR), RP (Mets to Dodgers, 1.1 WAR), 1B (Nationals to Twins, 1.1 WAR), C (Brewers to Rangers, 1.1 WAR), SP (Rays to Giants, 1.1 WAR), 2B (Red Sox to Angels, 1.1 WAR), 1B (Padres to Pirates, 1.0 WAR)