Here's a crazy (but defensible) All-Star ballot

June 24th, 2021

Voting for the MLB All-Star Game is well underway, and there are definitely frontrunners -- superstars like Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Shohei Ohtani, Ronald Acuña Jr. and Fernando Tatis Jr. But looking through the ballot, there are a lot of other players deserving of a vote.

So here's one crazy -- but defensible -- All-Star ballot for 2021.

To keep things a little simpler, we're just choosing one player at each position on the ballot (plus three total outfielders), combining the American League and National League. But whichever league the top pick at that position comes from, an alternate candidate from the other league is listed below.

These are the players who are worthy All-Star candidates even if you might not think so at first, and why they are.

First base: Freddie Freeman, Braves
Key stat: .301 expected BA / .580 expected SLG

The reigning NL MVP is only batting .240 and only slugging .452. How are those All-Star numbers? Well, you have to look at the numbers under the numbers. Freeman has been one of the unluckiest hitters in baseball in 2021. Based only on his quality of contact, Freeman is one of the best hitters in the league. His expected batting average is .301, 61 points higher than his actual average. His expected slugging percentage is .580, 128 points higher than his actual slugging. And his more holistic expected wOBA, .408, is at the elite .400-plus level.

Consider how Freeman plays at an All-Star level year in and year out, and then consider that this year he's actually outperforming his overall expected stats under Statcast tracking (since 2015) -- a .293 xBA, .565 xSLG and .400 xwOBA.

AL candidate: Trey Mancini, Orioles
Key stat: 93rd percentile of MLB in xBA, 88th in xSLG, 91st in xwOBA

Second base: Jazz Chisholm Jr., Marlins
Key stat: 2 HR off 100+ mph fastballs

The rookie Chisholm has an uncommon power-speed combo at his position. He has eight home runs and 10 stolen bases right now; Marcus Semien and Ozzie Albies are the only other second basemen with at least eight of each. But it's the way he's hitting for power that shows you he's All-Star-caliber. Chisholm has hit two homers this season off 100-plus mph fastballs (and one of those was off Jacob deGrom). He's the only player in the entire pitch-tracking era, back to 2008, with multiple homers off triple-digit heat in a season. And both of those fastballs were up and out of the strike zone. You can't hit home runs, plural, off pitches like that unless you're really good.

AL candidate: Whit Merrifield, Royals
Key stat: MLB-leading 20 stolen bases

Third base: Matt Chapman, A's
Key stat: +12 Outs Above Average

There are other third basemen who are outslugging Chapman this season, like Rafael Devers and Kris Bryant. But Chapman has one huge advantage over everyone else: his all-world defense. Going by Outs Above Average, Statcast's overall stat for infield defense, the difference between Chapman and every other third baseman in baseball is massive. Chapman has been worth +12 OAA this season, which translates to nine runs prevented. Not only does that make him MLB's second-best fielder at any position (shortstop Nick Ahmed is first at +13) … the next-closest third baseman (Manny Machado) is only at +4 OAA and three runs prevented.

NL candidate: Evan Longoria, Giants
Key stat: MLB-leading 61.3% hard-hit rate

Shortstop: Brandon Crawford, Giants
Key stat: +2.59 Win Probability Added

Crawford is a huge reason why the Giants are in first place in the NL West and not the Dodgers or Padres. He leads all shortstops in Win Probability Added (ahead of Fernando Tatis Jr.), which means he's making a real impact on his team winning games -- and San Francisco has the best record in baseball. Crawford's having an unexpected but deserved power surge in 2021 -- his 16 home runs are more than he's had in any full season since 2015, and his excellent quality of contact metrics back up his traditional stats. Plus he's still a defensive specialist, with +6 Outs Above Average, top-five among shortstops.

AL candidate: Joey Wendle, Rays
Key stat: 142 OPS+ / +4 OAA

Catcher: Mike Zunino, Rays
Key stat: +4 runs saved from extra strikes / 8 110+ mph HR

Why is a catcher hitting below the Mendoza Line a defensible All-Star pick? Because Zunino is excelling at two other key facets of his position: power hitting and pitch framing. Zunino might have a .197 batting average, but he also has a .503 slugging percentage. His 15 home runs are second-most among catchers, and eight were hit 110 mph or harder; only Vlad Jr., Nelson Cruz and Shohei Ohtani have more. In other words, when Zunino connects, he's really putting a charge into the ball, meaning he's an impact hitter despite the low average and high strikeouts. On the defensive side, Zunino has saved the Rays four runs with his pitch framing, second-most among catchers, thanks to getting called strikes on 52% of borderline pitches, also second-best.

NL candidate: Yadier Molina, Cardinals
Key stat: +1.55 WPA (best among C) / 1.30 "Clutch" score (2nd-best among C)

Outfield: Tyler O'Neill, Cardinals
Key stat: 99th percentile barrel rate / 98th percentile sprint speed

Another power-speed combo -- O'Neill is one of only five players who ranks in the top 10% of MLB in both barrel rate (power) and sprint speed (speed) this season. The others? Ohtani, Acuña, Tatis and Teoscar Hernández. (Mike Trout would, too, but he's been out too long to qualify for the leaderboards.) About one in every eight of O'Neill's plate appearances have resulted in him barreling the baseball, which is top-five in MLB ... and why he's slugged 15 home runs. Meanwhile, his sprint speed of 29.7 feet per second is just under Statcast's elite 30+ ft/sec threshold, which helps him on the bases and in the outfield.

Outfield: Kyle Tucker, Astros
Key stat: .329 xBA / .619 xSLG

Tucker's stats have finally started to come around to match his quality of contact. For a while, he was as unlucky as Freeman. Now, at least, he's raised his OPS+ to 127 (as in, 27% better than a league-average hitter). But his expected stats reveal how those numbers should be even better. Tucker's .329 expected batting average is third-best among all MLB qualifiers; his .619 expected slugging percentage is fourth-best. If his traditional stats looked like that, he'd be an All-Star shoo-in.

Outfield: Ramón Laureano, A's
Key stat: +1.95 WPA

Laureano is the third-best outfielder in MLB by Win Probability Added, which is all the more important as the A's battle the Astros in a tight AL West division race. He can be a difference-maker on both sides of the ball, with a 142 OPS+ built on a foundation of very strong contact quality (15.0% barrel rate, .550 xSLG) and highlight-reel ability in center field, with his home run robberies and laser arm.

Other OF candidates: Juan Soto, Nationals; Cedric Mullins, Orioles; Bryce Harper, Phillies

Key stat -- Soto: 17.7% walk rate (98th percentile of MLB) to 14.9% strikeout rate (90th percentile of MLB)
Key stat -- Mullins: 13 HR / 12 SB / 150 OPS+
Key stat -- Harper: 93rd percentile in barrel rate, 92nd in walk rate, 98th in max exit velo, 91st in xBA, 96th in xSLG, 96th in xwOBA

Designated hitter: Giancarlo Stanton, Yankees
Key stat: 120.2 mph max exit velocity

When you're looking at who should be the player dedicating his All-Star Game solely to hitting, you could do a whole lot worse than picking the guy who hits the ball harder than literally everybody else. Stanton has the five hardest-hit baseballs in MLB this season, including three at 120+ mph, which is the very extreme end of exit velo. He also has two of the five hardest home runs of the year (118.0 mph and 117.3 mph). He also ranks first in average exit velocity (97.1 mph), first in fly ball/line drive exit velocity (102.4 mph) and second in hard-hit rate (60.6%).

Other DH candidate: Yordan Alvarez, Astros
Key stat: .343/.395/.591 slash line, .986 OPS in 35 G vs. opponents .500 or better