This story was excerpted from Adam Berry’s Rays Beat newsletter. To read the full newsletter, click here. And subscribe to get it regularly in your inbox.
ST. PETERSBURG -- The Rays are rolling right now, and that invites a familiar question: “How are they doing this?”
There are some things about the Rays’ rise to the top of the standings that we can’t hope to quantify. For example, how much has their return to Tropicana Field helped? How much are they thriving off being the underdog? Is the “power of friendship” the new market inefficiency?
But there are also some factors we can quantify that help tell the story behind the Rays’ 31-15 record and what it means moving forward. Here are 14 numbers that stand out.
9-1
That’s the Rays’ record in one-run games. While their plus-35 run differential might suggest they’re not as good as their record, their ability to win close games would say otherwise.
22-5 / 25-5
Those are the Rays’ records when they score first and when they score at least four runs. It sounds simple, but when you have the kind of pitching they possess, you’re going to win a lot of games when you get ahead and give your staff some breathing room.
3.03
That is the collective ERA of Tampa Bay’s starting pitchers this season, the best mark in the Majors. Shane McClanahan’s five-inning, four-run outing on Monday night ended a streak in which their starters allowed three runs or fewer in 22 consecutive starts, the longest single-season streak in franchise history.
Run prevention will always be the foundation of Tampa Bay’s best teams, and that begins with quality starting pitchers. The Rays have plenty in McClanahan, Drew Rasmussen, Nick Martinez, Steven Matz and, now, Griffin Jax.
5
That’s the number of games the Rays have played without Yandy Díaz, Jonathan Aranda and Junior Caminero all in the starting lineup.
Caminero has started each of the team’s first 46 games, all at third base. Aranda has started 43 games, and Díaz has been Tampa Bay’s designated hitter 44 times. Even when they’re not all firing on all cylinders, having to prepare for that trio near the top of the order is tough for an opposing pitching staff.
And, yeah, it helps that they’ve been productive, too. Díaz is hitting .310 with an .867 OPS and 31 RBIs. Aranda is batting .267 with an .818 OPS and an AL-leading 35 RBIs. And Caminero is hitting .261 with 13 homers and an .857 OPS.
19.4
That was the Rays’ whiff rate (as hitters) entering play on Monday, by far the lowest in the Majors. No team in baseball is swinging and missing less than the Rays. That means more balls in play, which means more pressure on opposing defenses and occasional chaos on the basepaths.
Also of note: That 19.4% mark was a 6.3-point drop from last season, the largest year-to-year shift in whiff rate in either direction.
20, .162 / .219
Let’s take these one at a time. The Rays’ changeup usage entering play on Monday night was 20%, highest in the Majors. Why is that such a good thing?
Because opponents were batting just .162 against those offspeed pitches, tied for the best mark in baseball, while recording a meager .219 against Tampa Bay’s changeups.
This change (if you’ll please pardon the pun) came about mostly as a product of personnel. McClanahan, Martinez and Matz throw really good changeups, and they weren’t on the staff last season. But Bryan Baker was here for half the season, and he wasn’t throwing his excellent changeup this much. They’ve also developed changeups for pitchers like Rasmussen, Kevin Kelly and Hunter Bigge.
6
That was the Rays’ Fielding Run Value total in the outfield entering play on Monday, tied with the Dodgers and Braves for third-best in the Majors behind the Cubs and Red Sox.
Their outfielders ranked 26th in that metric last season, which is why improving their defense on the grass was such a high priority in the offseason. That’s taken place thanks to some new personnel, including Cedric Mullins, Jake Fraley and Ryan Vilade, better health from Jonny DeLuca and massive strides from Chandler Simpson under new first-base/outfield coach Corey Dickerson.
35
That’s the age of Martinez, the veteran pitcher the Rays brought during Spring Training to round out their rotation. Instead of just providing quality innings, he’s been a huge part of their clubhouse culture and pitched like something of an ace, with a 1.51 ERA in 53 2/3 innings over his first nine starts.
The Rays are 7-2 when Martinez pitches, and he has allowed two runs or fewer in nine straight starts to begin the season. He’s only the second 35-or-older pitcher in the Modern Era to accomplish that feat, joining A.J. Burnett with the Pirates in 2015.
0.72
That is reliever Kevin Kelly’s WHIP, third best among all Major League relievers with at least 20 innings pitched. After a rough year, he has been every bit the fireman the Rays' bullpen needs in the absence of key relievers like Edwin Uceta and Manuel Rodríguez.
Baker has earned the attention he’s received for closing out games, but Kelly -- who has allowed only two of his 20 inherited runners to score this season -- has quietly racked up 10 holds.
29.5 / 89.5
When the season began, FanGraphs gave the Rays a 29.5% chance to make the playoffs. It was by no means out of line with the rest of the preseason projections or predictions. On Tuesday? Their chances had jumped all the way to 89.3%, according to FanGraphs.