9 teams that could define the winter

November 8th, 2022

Bring on the rumors, the rumblings, the swaps and the signings. Bring on the competitiveness of construction and the palpable appeal of what looks good on paper.

Bring on the Hot Stove season -- the best time of the year (that doesn’t, you know, involve actual games).

Every year, there are certain teams that play an outsized role in keeping the Hot Stove, well, hot. What follows are some good guesses as to who those teams might be in the winter of 2022-23.

Of course, other clubs not on this list could surprise us. For instance, we could see teams with good young cores and financial flexibility -- the Guardians, Orioles and D-backs all come to mind -- do something unexpectedly bold. But for now, these are the nine most obvious candidates to be forces on the free-agent front.

1. Giants

With (opt-out), and all free agents (and ’s 2023 option likely to be declined), the Giants have significant salary coming off the books (though bringing back Rodón could be a priority). If they were to take the payroll back to where it was in the late 2010s -- when it topped out around $200 million -- they could be, well, Giants of this Hot Stove season.

But even if it’s a more modest total tally, there is still room here to make a play for “hometown” hero (we’re using that geographical term very loosely) and/or perhaps get into the deep shortstop market, which would require creativity with .

“It’s going to be a big offseason for us,” Giants president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi told reporters.

2. Dodgers

Between , , , and (club option), the Dodgers could have something like $100 million in 2022 payroll coming off the books.

So they are another big-market team that could absolutely make a play for Judge -- perhaps even by moving to the infield -- and/or the shortstop group (Trea Turner included). The Dodgers’ financial heft and strong system have given them a ton of flexibility in terms of how they construct their roster in recent years, and that’s true as ever this winter.

3. Mets

The Mets have to be on this list by default, simply because they have so much talent entering free agency, including , (mutual option), and . In inking star closer to a record-breaking five-year, $102 million deal, owner Steve Cohen has again made it clear that he will do what it takes to field a World Series-caliber roster on a yearly basis. So the Mets will, at minimum, plug their holes and perhaps do something bold beyond that.

A question that will ultimately define the Mets’ direction this winter revolves around their willingness to make another top-of-the-market pact with a starter like deGrom after setting a new average annual standard with a year ago. If the Mets re-sign deGrom, it might limit their ability to make a huge splash (like, say, a Judge signing) elsewhere. If deGrom departs, it’s anyone’s guess which direction the Mets might go, and that would be fascinating.

4. Yankees

Another default inclusion, and this situation is kind of simple: If the Yankees re-sign Judge, that could be the biggest contract of the winter … and it still wouldn’t address the club’s other needs.

And if they don’t re-sign Judge … ruh roh. They will have an awful lot of work to do.

5. Rangers

You don’t invest half a billion dollars into your middle infield one offseason ( and last winter) and hire 67-year-old, future Hall of Fame manager Bruce Bochy the next because you hope to win five years from now, OK?

The Rangers figure to be big players this winter, primarily to acquire pitching. If deGrom were to actually leave Queens, mark Texas down as a tempting destination. The Rangers have a strong farm system, and, as we saw last winter, they aren’t afraid to throw their weight around in free agency. They see a window to win the AL West coming quickly.

6. Mariners

Speaking of a window to win the West, look for the Mariners to build off the momentum of this year’s fun, but ultimately short-lived, playoff run. Having already made splashes last winter for , and , and this past summer for , look for Seattle to target a big bat and perhaps be active in the aforementioned shortstop market ( or an external acquisition could be asked to shift to second).

If the Angels were to actually make available in trade, Seattle -- even as division foes -- could be a landing spot.

7. Cardinals

The Cardinals have not been prone to particularly big splashes in the open market, but president of baseball operations John Mozeliak has said that the payroll will be going up in 2023 -- by how much, we do not yet know. With that in mind, there is a strong argument for this club to add a high-impact arm atop the rotation.

The Cards have impressive organizational depth, but, in addition to finding Yadier Molina’s replacement behind the dish, you might see them splurge on a starter who can take them from very good to elite.

8. Cubs

This might not be the Cubs’ time to truly go for the throat in free agency, but this winter could be an important opportunity for them to flex their financial muscle and hasten the pace back toward a contending roster.

“We will be active in free agency,” president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer told reporters. “And [we] have the necessary resources available to substantially supplement our current roster.”

The Cubs are already a rumored potential destination for one of the top-end shortstops in this market.

9. Red Sox

Boston is kind of a wild card in all of this because of the mixed signals the Sox sent with a wishy-washy Trade Deadline and the uncertainty surrounding their efforts to extend and . Devers is set for free agency next winter, while Bogaerts became a free agent on Monday after opting out of the remaining three years in the six-year extension he signed with the Red Sox.

But if this club is as serious as it claims to be about escaping the AL East cellar and vying for a return to October in 2023, then some big swings on the pitching front, and perhaps in the lineup, are in order this winter.