Who is coming for Trout's No. 1 CF spot?
Every year, MLB Network previews the upcoming season with its “Top 10 Players Right Now” specials, which break down the best at each position. The latest installment, on the Top 10 center fielders, aired Friday night. Now, MLB.com is continuing the debate with a panel of experts -- Mark Feinsand, Sarah Langs and Mike Petriello -- who will explain their lists and share their thoughts on the state of the position.
Andrew Simon, moderator/editor: Let’s start right at the top. Mike Trout is No. 1 on all of your lists. That’s been basically an auto-fill situation for years now. He’s still great, obviously. But he’s going to turn 31 in August, he played 36 games last year due to injury, and he hasn’t played more than 140 since 2016. So the question is this: When is the first year that Trout isn’t going to be in this spot?
Mark Feinsand, executive reporter: When he retires.
Sarah Langs, reporter/producer: I’m so glad that was your question -- because that is my question, too!
Mike Petriello, lead stats analyst: Next year. Because he's going to be my No. 1 left fielder. I put it out there a year ago. I'm sticking with it.
Feinsand: If Ronald Acuña Jr. or Juan Soto moved to center field, perhaps they could give Trout a run for his money. But the list behind Trout right now doesn’t include a player I believe will unseat him anytime soon. Jasson Dominguez might be the one to finally do it if he really is “The next Mike Trout,” which is a BIG if.
Langs: I do think he still has a huge lead over the other players, but I do wonder about a position move, as Mike said. I look at this list and there isn’t an in-waiting perpetual No. 1. A lot of good and great players, tons of potential with someone like Buxton ... but no next Trout, yet. Which, to be fair, is a completely unfair standard.
Petriello: Look, I love Mike Trout. Love him. I think people forget that he was somehow off to the best start of his career in 2021, which seems impossible, given that he was already having the best career we'll probably ever see. But: He's 30 now. He hasn't played 140 games in four of the last five seasons, and yes, I get that includes 2020. The defense which was once so sparkling is now ... just OK. The Angels have young outfielders who can maybe handle center. There's no shame in a corner.
Langs: Anything that prolongs his career is good by me
Petriello: Of course, when the Angels don't move him, of course he'll be my No. 1 CF.
Simon: The injuries are a concern, but Trout has still hit .301/.419/.611 (177 OPS+) with 25 home runs in the 89 games he’s played since 2020. Does he still have the title of “Best player in baseball,” if (and that’s obviously a big “if”) he’s healthy?
Petriello: He does, but it's closer than it's ever been. I'm not that far away from just saying it's Soto.
Feinsand: He’s still the best player in baseball. Though Soto is gaining on him quickly.
Petriello: And hey, another year like 2021, and he might not even be the best player on his own team.
Feinsand: Perhaps Shohei Ohtani can teach Trout how to pitch.
Simon: Speaking of monumental talents with injury questions: Byron Buxton. Over the course of his career, he’s been worth 6.0 WAR per 650 plate appearances (a whopping 10.6 last year), but he’s never gotten more than 511 PA in a season and only once cleared the 350 mark. Sarah, what led you to put him second, despite such an obviously huge risk factor?
Langs: Optimism -- pure optimism. Last year was the season we’d finally been waiting for with him, before injury issues. But with him putting it all together, I went based on that upside. He had 4.5 WAR last year in 61 games, by far the most by any position player in a season with fewer than 70 games played in the Modern Era (since 1900). I know I should be more realistic -- but his season was so much fun.
Feinsand: I love Buxton’s talent. But his injury history was too much for me to put him in my top five. I would imagine Mike felt the same way -- though he is unlikely to admit to agreeing with me.
Petriello: Here's a direct line from my notes document:
This is the coward’s 7! He’ll either be No. 1 or N/A.
That's me hedging because, who knows how many games he gives you? I mean, health is a skill. I don't know if he has that skill. But when you slug .600 with truly, deeply elite defense and baserunning? I don't want to say simply showing up doesn't matter, but you'd take 50% of Buxton over 80% of just about any other outfielder. It's why, despite his regular lack of availability, the Twins giving him $100 million made all kinds of sense.
Simon: Last year, Shohei Ohtani was the consensus “Please, let us watch him play a full season” guy. We got to see it, and it was amazing. For me at least, Buxton is now that guy. We need to see what he can do if he stays healthy for six months.
Petriello: If he can stay healthy for one year, simply one year, he's going to put up some kind of monster 45 HR / Gold Glove CF / 10-WAR season. I hope ...
Feinsand: $100 million made all the sense in the world. If he’s healthy, he’s worth 2-3 times that. But I disagree with No. 1 or N/A. He’s in our Top 10 this year despite playing only 61 games in 2021. Even 61 games from him is still more valuable than 150 from some other center fielders.
Petriello: Sort of. It does depend a bit on who the Twins have for those other 90 games.
Feinsand: It’s like the Jacob deGrom debate. Would you take 18 deGrom starts or 33 starts from another decent starter?
Simon: When it comes to Luis Robert, here’s what stands out to me:
- 2020 - 41.5% whiff rate, 32.2% K-rate
- 2021 - 28.2% whiff rate, 20.6% K-rate
The tools are obviously loud, and that sort of improvement has to be encouraging. What’s the ceiling here?
Feinsand: To me, the ceiling is being No. 2 on this list.
Langs: It seems to be quite high. I know he should have been my No. 2 if not for the aforementioned Buxton optimism. Robert has the ability to be an impact five-tool player, and to your point, Andrew, he is getting better at the MLB level.
Petriello: Guaranteed Rate Field doesn’t have a roof, so there is no ceiling here. I know his 2021 got messed up by injury, but you know what really impressed me? He showed that enormous drop in strikeout rate, down to about league average. If that's real, you've got a guy who doesn't strike out too much ... who is a fantastic defensive center fielder ... who has a career slugging percentage over .500 ... and who is only 24 years old. If it's not Trout here next year, it's Robert, at No. 1.
Simon: Despite both starting the All-Star Game, the Orioles' Cedric Mullins and the Pirates' Bryan Reynolds didn’t get a ton of national attention last year, playing for teams that lost 110 and 101 games, respectively. But both were great, both are entering their age-27 season and both are under club control through 2025. Mark, do you expect both to still be on their current teams when we’re doing these lists a year from now?
Feinsand: Man, I would love to see that be the case, but I don’t think it will be. The Orioles are still in the beginning of their rebuild (despite being in year 3-4?), so if Mullins gets off to another strong start, he’ll be a hot commodity on the trade market. Same with Reynolds. These guys will make too much money in arbitration and then be free agents by the time their teams are competitive again.
Simon: What is also worth mentioning is that Mullins apparently had his breakout season in 2021 after being diagnosed with Crohn's disease. That makes the 30-30 campaign even more impressive.
Petriello: Incredibly impressive. I do think he's going to get impacted a bit by the changes to Camden Yards, though. He had massive splits in 2021:
- Home: 22 HR, .592 SLG
- Road: 8 HR, .443 SLG
Langs: So impressive, for sure. He’s also such a great example of in-career adjustment, with stopping switch-hitting.
Feinsand: Both Mullins and Reynolds need to post another strong year in 2022 to move up this list. Their 2021 seasons were excellent, but neither has a track record yet.
Petriello: Agree, though the fact that Reynolds was pretty good in 2019 is why he was atop Mullins here, for me.
Feinsand: His dismal 2020 was a red flag. Though 2020 was admittedly strange for a lot of players.
Simon: It’s a little stunning that Cody Bellinger went from NL MVP and probably a top-five player in baseball to not even being top-five at his position in the span of a couple years. And he’s only 26. Mike, what do you make of Bellinger at this point, and what’s a reasonable expectation for 2022?
Petriello: I mean, he was by some estimations the worst regular player in the league last year, so if you did a double take that he's on my list instead of Kevin Kiermaier or Ramón Laureano or whomever else you like better, totally fair. Here's my thing, though: We tend to give guys so much extra credit for playing through pain and being tough or whatever, instead of shutting it down, and I think that really did a disservice to Bellinger here. I mean, he had offseason shoulder surgery. And then he fractured his leg. And pulled his hamstring. And fractured his rib. Dude probably should have just shut it down on May 1, and if he had, I think we'd have a brighter view of him in 2022.
I don't actually think the MVP version is coming back. But he's still only 26, and a good fielder, and he looked better in the postseason. I'm willing to hope that a long winter's worth of health will serve him well.
Feinsand: Bellinger’s strikeout percentage was up, while his walk percentage and hard hit percentages were down. I’m not ready to declare him past his prime at 26, but if there’s one player in baseball who would benefit from a strong first month this season, it’s Bellinger.
Langs: I really think injuries and recovery were underlying currents to his season, so I do think he deserves some grace there. I’m not sure he’ll ever be that 2019 player again, but I think he can still be good. Mark mentioned some of the figures I was going to -- and hitting the ball less hard, to me, really correlates with the injuries, especially the recovery from shoulder surgery. I think a fully healthy season will serve him well.
Simon: If you want to be optimistic, he was quite good in the postseason after making a couple adjustments at the end of the regular season.
Petriello: And I do want to be optimistic. I really do.
Simon: The Mets had a clear need for a legitimate starting center fielder again this offseason, and they landed 33-year-old Starling Marte on a four-year deal. How would everyone grade that move, at least for 2022?
Petriello: If we're talking about '22 only? A+. Love it. Exactly what they needed. I'm not so sure about four years' worth of it, but that's what was necessary to land him.
Feinsand: Considering the Mets are looking to contend right now, I liked the move. I don’t know how years three and four will look, but I like the fit for the front end of the deal.
Langs: For 2022, I think it’ll be good -- their first really good defensive CF since Juan Lagares (and before that: Carlos Beltrán). That’ll be huge, and he had a great ’21 at the plate. The other years? Less sure.
Petriello: Over his last nine years, eight of them have been good to very good. And man, did this team really need a righty hitter who could cover CF and add some excitement on the bases. Perfect fit of player and need.
Simon: Looking at the eligible players who didn’t make it onto any of your lists, a couple of names stand out: 2020 AL Rookie of the Year Kyle Lewis and 2021's fourth-place finisher, Adolis García. Did anyone give one or both of those guys strong consideration here?
Feinsand: I looked at García, but he strikes out way too much and doesn’t walk enough. A sub-.300 OBP was too much for me to ignore, but he’s fabulous defensively.
Langs: If Kyle Lewis comes back healthy, I hope to have him on future lists. What a fun player. García had an exciting May and first half but he slugged .370 in the second half, and had a 100-point difference in home vs. road slugging percentage.
Feinsand: Lewis had a nice rookie campaign in the short 2020 season, but he struggled in 2021. I’d like to see him do it over a full season before he cracks my Top 10. But the talent is certainly there.
Petriello: Not really. I think Kiermaier or Laureano would be my next guys.
There was definitely part of me that wondered if I was overthinking a rookie who hit 31 HR with strong defense in Garcia. But on the other hand, he's a lot older than people would think (he's going to be 29 already), and his 2021 production essentially came down to a red-hot month of May.
- May: .312/.348/.633 -- .981 OPS
- Every other month: .227/.272/.413 -- .685 OPS
I think I'd take the under on him being a starting outfielder for the whole upcoming season, really.
Feinsand: Bader was my No. 11. García and Lewis would have fallen in the 12-15 range for me.