Baseball’s one and only 2019 Trade Deadline is one week away.
That might not sound like a lot of time. But given how quickly situations evolve this time of year -- especially with the elimination of the August waiver trade period -- so much can change between now and then.
After all, just look at how much has changed in the trade market since the start of July. Here are eight major developments just in the last few weeks.
The Giants’ rise
Though a World Series run from a Wild Card spot à la 2014 feels a bit far-fetched, the Giants can’t possibly progress with the summer sell-off that seemed to be prescribed for a franchise in need of long-term assets.
In all likelihood, the price tag for rental chips like Madison Bumgarner and Will Smith, while strong, probably wouldn’t be as franchise-shaping as some might wish. So in manager Bruce Bochy’s final year, and with a fan base that is so supportive, it behooves the Giants -- at this moment, at least -- to do right by a club that has caught fire with a Major League roster reshaped by some Triple-A promotions and see what happens.
Of course, if that’s how this situation remains in the next week, it’s a bummer for the many clearer World Series contenders who could use rotation and bullpen help.
The Reds’ blues
The Reds looked like a stealth squad at the All-Star break, when their last-place standing masked the National League Central’s second-best run differential. President of baseball operations Dick Williams was talking about adding on at the Trade Deadline.
Then something terrible happened. Play resumed. Losing seven of their first 10 in the second half took all the steam out of the Reds’ stride. Now, Williams has to consider all offers for pending free agents Tanner Roark (who could be a sneaky-good rotation pickup for a contender), Yasiel Puig, David Hernandez, Derek Dietrich and José Iglesias -- and maybe even closer Raisel Iglesias, who is under control another two years.
The Indians’ continued surge
A strong June didn’t put much of a dent in the Tribe’s American League Central deficit and didn’t meaningfully alter the club’s openness to moving Trevor Bauer. But the math is a lot different now. With the Indians beating up on a bunch of also-rans and building confidence, it’s a real race with the Twins, and it is increasingly difficult to imagine a Bauer trade that brings back enough Major League-ready talent to avoid alienating both the fans and the clubhouse (such a deal is especially difficult with Bauer likely to command somewhere around $18 million to $20 million in arbitration next year).
That definitely changes the starting market drastically.
The Indians now have to think seriously about where and what to add. Puig and Nicholas Castellanos are rental options for the outfield. Finding a platoon partner for Jason Kipnis (.537 OPS vs. lefties) at second base would make sense (Baltimore’s Hanser Alberto, perhaps?).
Brandon Woodruff’s injury
The rotation was a need before the Brewers’ ace went down Sunday with a left oblique issue that will likely cost him six weeks of action. Now it’s a screaming need. Woodruff has posted 11 starts of at least six innings this season. That was vital for a Brew Crew club that’s very dependent on a bullpen that has thrown more innings than any non-opener-oriented relief crew in baseball.
The NL Central was already baseball’s most compelling division at this Trade Deadline. This Woodruff development only ups the ante for Milwaukee and increases the intrigue in the Central, at large.
The A’s ascendance
Here they come again. Much like last year, a midsummer surge (including 10 wins in 12 games from July 4 through Saturday) has the A’s in the thick of the playoff picture, even if an AL West title isn’t especially likely.
Billy Beane’s crew already swung a swap for Homer Bailey in a rotation that lost Frankie Montas to a suspension. The rotation might still yet get another upgrade, but the bullpen is likely the chief focus of a club that has pulled off some surprises in Deadlines past and could again.
Zack Wheeler’s absence
On the list of unfortunate developments for the Mets this season, it’s hard to even know where to rank the Wheeler injury. There is a lot of competition, after all.
But Wheeler’s right shoulder fatigue was definitely a big blow for a club hoping to cash in on his upside. Wheeler is expected to be back in the rotation mix by week’s end, and there will be a lot of eyes on him. No question, though, his value has been greatly diminished by this injury.
The Rangers’ regression
OK, we were being kind and alliterative in the subhead here, because regression is not a strong enough word for what’s happened to the Rangers. As recently as June 28, they were just 4 1/2 back of the mighty Astros in the AL West. Then they went 4-14 and, well, let’s just go with another understatement and say the division and Wild Card deficits have grown a bit since then.
So it’s time to do as the Rangers intended from the start of this season and start selling. And this is where a starting market that appears to be losing Bauer, Bumgarner and a healthy Wheeler gets a bit of a boost with the renewed possibility of a Mike Minor and/or Lance Lynn trade. Certainly, the Rangers can keep those guys for 2020, when they move into a brand new ballpark (Minor’s under control for one more year, Lynn for two). But because of the aforementioned changes in the market conditions, Lynn and Minor have major value right now.
Danny Santana and Hunter Pence are also marketable.
The Rockies’ rut
At the start of July, the Rockies were in a playoff position in the NL. It took less than three weeks for Colorado to play so poorly that general manager Jeff Bridich openly lambasted his club as the producers of “really bad baseball.” Colorado was five games back of the Wild Card, as of this writing.
So it’s hard to imagine the Rockies as buyers now. There are reports of them listening to offers for Charlie Blackmon, but his contract is cumbersome. Same goes for Wade Davis’ deal. Really, the Rockies don’t have much to realistically market right now, unless they want to capitalize on reliever Scott Oberg’s enormous value.