Rarely has a Major League Baseball season been more forgiving to middling ballclubs.
Consider that 18 teams have at least double-digit playoff percentages entering play Thursday, according to FanGraphs' projections.
That's 60% of the league that is still very much at least alive for the postseason.
In fact, half the league -- 15 teams -- owned at least a 30% chance of playing playoff baseball in October.
This is a year where only the Brewers are on pace for 100 wins, and only six teams are on pace for 90-plus wins -- with just two (Rays and Yankees) in the AL. On average since 1998, there are 8.2 teams that reach at least 90 wins in full seasons.
The AL is especially wide open as sub-.500 teams like the Orioles, Twins and Mariners still enjoyed double-digit percentage playoff chances.
But the most interesting question isn't which fringe teams are most likely to make the playoffs, it is which underperforming teams would be the most dangerous if they get there in this relatively flat year.
Which clubs have the underlying characteristics that could allow them to dramatically outperform their regular-season record?
Let's consider what makes a team more dangerous in October than the regular season. (All stats through Thursday)
Top-end starting pitching
Innings concentrate around teams' best arms in the playoffs. Consider how the D-backs won a World Series as a 92-win team in 2001: Randy Johnson and Curt Schilling combined for 34.7% of Arizona's regular-season innings but 58.2% of the club's postseason innings that year. Last year’s Dodgers followed a similar blueprint, though with the innings a bit more spread out among a group of starters.
Bullpens with stuff and bat-missing ability
Relievers increasingly absorb postseason innings, and the best relievers are deployed disproportionately in the highest-leverage situations.
Elite power hitters
It's difficult to string hits together against strong postseason pitching. Power plays. Each of the last 10 World Series champs have been above-average in slugging, often elite.
So among those teams on the fringe of contention, who have underperformed to date? Who holds the most upside to make noise in the postseason field should they enter?
Guardians (68–66)
The Guardians' regular-season record understates how dangerous their October roster could be.
The Guardians have one of the stronger rotations among the fringe contenders. Their rotation is tied for sixth in ERA (3.74), tied for eighth in xERA (3.96) and 11th in fWAR (10.5).
And the starting rotation is even stronger on paper when removing the weakest links, which is what happens in October when the added urgency and off-days of the playoffs allow for innings to concentrate among top arms.
Entering Thursday, the Guardians ranked seventh in fWAR from their top three starting pitchers currently on the roster –- Parker Messick, Gavin Williams and Deadline acquisition Foster Griffin, trailing only the Phillies, Brewers, Dodgers, Yankees, Red Sox and Pirates.
The Guardians also strengthened themselves at the Deadline by adding Griffin, Jo Adell and Nathaniel Lowe.
Lowe addresses first-base production.
Adell addresses lacking power from the right side.
And Griffin has pitched like a top-of-rotation arm since returning from his reinvention in Japan.
This is a stronger group than it was before the Deadline, or that its record might suggest.
Astros (66–67)
The Astros have been in a gentle decline from their peak years last decade, but they still have a chance to do damage in October if they enter.
One big reason? They enjoy an improving bullpen.
Just consider the Astros' K-BB% by month:
March/April: 6.9%
May: 10%
June: 17.6%
July: 20.7%
August: 18.8%
July and August are well above-average marks.
This trend makes sense as the club didn't get elite closer Josh Hader back healthy until June. Bryan Abreu owns a 1.45 ERA in the second half versus a 5.81 mark in the first. And Steven Okert is performing even better in the second half than he did in the first with a 1.93 ERA.
As an overall staff, they rank 12th in strikeout rate (22.7%). Staff ace Hunter Brown is back leading the rotation after missing most of the first half.
The Astros enjoy another trait that plays in October: they have offensive star power.
Triple Crown contender Yordan Alvarez (185 wRC+) can carry a team for stretches and his bat is a big reason why the club is tied for seventh in wRC+ for the season (104), and over the last thirty days is sixth in slugging. Jeremy Peña is having an excellent season and Isaac Paredes, Christian Walker and Jose Altuve remain average-to-above regulars.
Mariners (64–70)
For a team that nearly reached the World Series a year ago, sitting six games under .500 with a -57 run differential as we approach September is perhaps the most disappointing campaign in the Majors to date.
But in the 2026 AL, that means they still have a 41.1% chance of making the playoffs, per FanGraphs. The big issues? A year after tying for the ninth-most runs scored in baseball, they've scored the fewest this season.
They've also experienced some poor offensive fortune. Consider the Mariners' expected average, slugging and wOBA is better than their actual average, slugging and wOBA so far this season. To date, they've posted an MLB-worst .272 average on balls in play.
The clearest example of the poor fortune is Cal Raleigh, who suffered a dramatic drop-off in performance following an MVP runner-up season. But he might be breaking out of a season-long slump.
Cal Raleigh's three-homer game Tuesday followed by another home run Wednesday were loud data points in this reversal. As I explored in July, Raleigh was not that far off from his underlying ability a year earlier and his struggles have likely largely been tied to a season disjointed by injury. Perhaps he's rounding into form.
Over the last 30 days, the Mariners roster had three of the hottest hitters in baseball, heating up at exactly the right time.
Raleigh is joined by Randy Arozarena, owner of a 146 wRC+ and seven home runs the last month, and Josh Naylor -- in possession of a 132 wRC+.
If the hitting can improve, the pitching remains a foundation.
The Mariners once again have one of baseball's deepest and most talented rotations. And in the postseason, an arm like Bryce Miller can be a weapon in the bullpen where his stuff might play up.
Orioles (65-68)
As noted earlier, the Orioles have one of the stronger rotations among contenders with Shane Baz (3.63 ERA, 16 K-BB%) and Trevor Rogers (3.40 ERA) pitching much better in the second half of the season than the first.
They rank in the top 10 of wRC+ and home runs as Pete Alonso, the under-performing but talented Gunnar Henderson and 22-year-old Samuel Basallo offer upside and power.
The bullpen has been uneven and Jackson Holliday has struggled, but this is an underperforming roster that could possess immense upside if it plays to its true talent level. Baltimore could save its best for last.
Pirates (65-70)
This is the longest shot on the list. The Pirates trail the Padres by 7 1/2 games for the last NL Wild Card spot and they need to jump three other teams to get there. FanGraphs gives them a 1% chance to make the playoffs.
It's a narrow path.
But if there's going to be a minor miracle in Pittsburgh, the Pirates become a fascinating playoff team.
After a concerning multi-week stretch of performance, Paul Skenes' velocity was up and his stuff and performance looked much better over six shutout innings Tuesday in San Diego. This is a staff loaded with power arms like Jared Jones, Braxton Ashcraft and Bubba Chandler.
In that same game, Oneil Cruz, recently off the injured list, homered off elite San Diego closer Mason Miller, showcasing his incredible game-changing bat speed. Injury derailed Cruz's possible breakout season, but he's a 30-30 talent back in the lineup.
Uber prospect Konnor Griffin is ramping up baseball activities as he could return to the club when he's eligible to return from the 60-day IL on Sept. 4. He was a difference maker as a 20-year-old before he injured his left ring finger.
Mason Montgomery stabilized the closer position and the club added Luke Weaver and Camilo Doval at the Trade Deadline to strengthen the backend of a once-embattled bullpen.
Now, this is not a perfect club. The defense is shaky. Too many members of their talented rotation have been up and down. But this is a club that is sixth in strikeout rate for pitchers (24.1%), which plays in the postseason, and still ranks fifth in runs scored as an offensive group.
What happens if the team that's limped to 65-70 suddenly gets Skenes, Cruz, Griffin, Montgomery, Doval and Weaver all contributing at something close to their best?
The Pirates are by far the least likely of these teams to reach the postseason. But if they do get that ticket, they may also have the largest gap between their regular-season record and their potential October ceiling.